MLB Trade Rumors: Analyzing Latest Chatter on Premier Pitchers

Now that a few MLB teams finally stepped on to the dance floor, everyone else will slowly emerge from the corner and join the frenzy.

A pair of inner-division deals occurred on Wednesday, with the Milwaukee Brewers peddling Aramis Ramirez to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros attaining Scott Kazmir from the Oakland Athletics. Both moves between clear-cut buyers and sellers make perfect sense. 

Other trades will feature more nuance, and not everyone will strike the perfect chord. Some fringe contenders won't snag that missing piece or two while not every club with a losing record will blow it all up. 

Yet the rumor mill has caught fire a week before the non-waiver trade deadline. With so many squads clamoring for pitching, several marquee arms lead the hot stove.

Padres Eager to Sell Shields, Cashner

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

In his first offseason as the San Diego Padres' general manager, A.J. Preller acted like an overzealous fantasy manager. He made several big splashes amounting to more name value than actual results. 

Acquiring Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers looked good on paper, so long as that paper didn't contain defensive data. Flashy additions aside, San Diego sits at 45-52 with MLB's worst ultimate zone rating (UZR). 

Such dreadful defense has done no favors for its pitching staff. According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, Preller is ready to reconfigure the roster again, starting with his prominent starters:

Andrew Cashner, looking to log over 175 innings for the first time in his injury-riddled career, hoists a 3.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and unfortunate 4-10 record. Every organization knows better than to give a pitcher's win-loss record any merit, but he has only netted two quality starts over his last eight outings.

Despite fanning 144 batters through 126.2 innings, James Shields sports his highest ERA (3.77) since 2010. Unlike Cashner, the 33-year-old righty has thrown over 200 innings in every season since 2006, but San Diego will have to find someone willing to pay him through 2018.

They're not, however, the only two Padres on the market. Per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, they're pursuing a mass exodus headlined by other high-level arms:

Despite his command issues, Tyson Ross is too valuable to surrender this summer. Through 122.2 innings, the 28-year-old righty has registered 132 strikeouts, a 63.3 ground-ball percentage and 2.75 fielding independent pitching (FIP). 

Blue Jays, White Sox Discuss Samardzija

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Baseball's leading scoring offense by a comfortable margin, the Toronto Blue Jays trail the New York Yankees by 5.5 games at 49-49. Despite possessing the American League's best run differential (+94), they've pitched their way to the middle with a 4.04 staff ERA.

Toronto needs a complete pitching overhaul, but one or two upgrades at least keep it in playoff contention. Jon Morosi of Fox Sports noted the club's interest in Jeff Samardzija:

Acquired by the Chicago White Sox last winter, the 30-year-old righty has recorded a 3.91 ERA and career-low 6.93 strikeouts per nine innings. He also, however, has generated a solid 3.53 FIP with a career-best 1.67 walks per nine. 

The veteran, whom the Chicago Cubs dealt to the Oakland Athletics last summer, has also repaired his trade value after a sluggish start. Comcast SportsNet Chicago's Christopher Kamka observed Samardzija's recent success:

"Shark" discussed his rising stock with the Chicago Tribune's Colleen Kane:

"

All I can do is increase my value as much as possible and make both sides come out on top. The better I play, the better the White Sox will get in return if they do trade me, and then it's better for me to go to a better situation. But again that's out of my hands. … All I can do is perform and increase my value to make it great no matter what the situation is.

"

The last-place White Sox no longer need the pending free agent, who would immediately become Toronto's staff ace by default. After accruing seven wins with a 2.99 ERA last season, the baseball gods owe him some run support.

Rays Shopping Relievers

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Tied with the Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays aren't as adamant about a playoff push. With a subpar offense, minus-16 run differential and limited financial flexibility, they're not in a position to go all in.

Tampa Bay also won't clear house, but it is willing to deal from its surplus of relief pitching, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

"Most speculation leading to the July 31 deadline for nonwaiver trades will be on who the Rays could get to bolster their offense," Topkin wrote. "But they are more likely to trade away a player from their current big-league roster, specifically one of their top relievers, even if they remain in the playoff race."

Topkin mentioned Kevin Jepsen as the most likely to go. The 30-year-old hides an ugly 4.12 FIP behind his 2.88 ERA and team-high 21 holds. Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee, however, will draw far more interest.

Boxberger, an All-Star representative with 24 saves, also wields an unflattering 3.82 FIP. Given his 12.27 career K/9 and pre-arbitration salary, most teams would still love to bring the 27-year-old righty on board.

Currently the most dominant of Tampa Bay's relievers, McGee has a 1.14 ERA, 32 strikeouts and three walks through 23.2 innings. That success has him due for a raise this offseason. Since the arbitration process foolishly overvalues saves, he'll remain affordable enough for most clubs but pricey enough for the frugal Rays to consider trading him.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.