Projecting the Most Improved Player at Every Position for 2015

Here we are again, with another nebulous term to define as we try to project the concept of "improvement" onto players. Are we saying they'll improve in performance? Are we saying they'll improve statistically? I tried to cast kind of a wide net on this one, but here were my general rules. 

• It's a good sign if a player has already proved he can improve. Whether that be that he has played better in the past or that he played better down the stretch, the idea that a player's potential ceiling is better than he showed in his last full season is paramount to being on this list.
• For skill-position players, I am largely looking at their numbers. This means some guys will make the list on the basis of getting more snaps, and others will make the list because they've wound up in a better situation than they did last year.
• For non-skill players, I'm projecting into roles. I've picked a few players for this team who I think will just perform better based on how the scheme around them has changed. While that may not be, per se, a skill improvement, their production will improve.
• I did not include fullbacks, returners, kickers or punters. I don't have much of a way to measure them as improving, especially when you get into the fact that small sample size rules a lot of their actual results on the field. Most special teamers are lucky to get 100 snaps a season, and most fullbacks are on their way to being relegated to that as well.

For each player, I'll give the main reason why I think he's a good bet to improve at the top of the slide then go into it a little deeper.

Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Midseason improvement in 2014.

Per Football Outsiders data, Bridgewater was the fourth-worst quarterback in the league through Week 8 last season, compiling minus-238 DYAR. From Week 9 on, Bridgewater had 78 DYAR. It's a case of splits happening, but over that timespan, he was statistically better than Andrew Luck.

And this season, with the hope of a healthy Mike Wallace and an incredibly motivated Adrian Peterson, Bridgewater will have even more weapons to work with. What happens if this is the year Cordarrelle Patterson starts playing like an NFL wideout? 

There are multiple reasons to believe in Bridgewater anyway, but from any angle you look at it, his worst-case scenario is probably staying as a mid-tier quarterback. That's better than he showed us if we take last season as a whole. 

Runner-up: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals. (Regression)—NFL quarterbacks tend to be steady, but Dalton's dive last year was wildly out of line with his past and probably caused mostly by injuries at the skill positions. Even if it's a blip, though, he's not exactly going to turn into a superstar.

Running Back: Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: New situation.

It's odd to see an old-timer on this list, but Frank Gore has been asked to do so much by the 49ers for so long that he's going to improve just based on adjusted expectations. Per Pro Football Focus, only 17.3 percent of Gore's carries came with fewer than seven men in the box last season—and that was his high-point of the last four seasons. 

Colin Kaepernick is now Andrew Luck. The 49ers' depleted receiving corps is now the stacked Indy roster that might have trouble finding snaps for first-round pick Phillip Dorsett. The box is going to dwindle quickly. And as it does, remember how much improvement the Colts found toward the end of last season by replacing Trent Richardson with literally anyone (literally anyone went by "Dan Herron" last year). 

Now replace that with an actual, highly skilled running back. Gore is going to have every opportunity to bludgeon opponents this season. 

Runner-up: Rashad Jennings, New York Giants. (Injury)—I'm not sure how New York plans to split the carries. But I am sure that Jennings is the best back of the three main candidates, and I think he'll prove it this season.

Wide Receiver: Stevie Johnson

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: New situation.

Hey look, it's another former San Francisco 49er! Trapped in a systemic war between his coaches and his front office, Johnson accumulated just 305 snaps last season. You probably forgot he existed. Especially if you were 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

But now he's in one of the fantasy-happiest positions in the NFL: Philip Rivers' checkdown target. This is the role that found 62 targets and seven touchdowns for Eddie Royal last season. Now imagine that the target Rivers is throwing to is someone with a much better track record of success than Royal and that Keenan Allen is actually healthy. 

It's an ideal scenario for Johnson to prove he's still got it. 

Runner-up: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers. (Opportunity)—Adams actually seemed to struggle the more of the field he saw last year, but when the league's reigning MVP is predicting stardom for you, I'm definitely listening.

Tight End: Josh Hill, New Orleans Saints

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Depth chart change.

With Jimmy Graham headed off to Seattle and receiver Kenny Stills sent to Miami, Drew Brees is going to have to replace about 200 total targets from last season. The majority of those will probably head to last year's first-round pick, Brandin Cooks, but secret weapon Hill has shown some aptitude for catching the ball and should see more snaps in 2015.

The question is: How many snaps? ESPN.com reporter Mike Triplett has repeatedly thrown ice water on the suggestion that Hill could win the starting job outright. But while I agree that Ben Watson could see some blocking snaps, I think we'll see Hill as the primary player on passing downs. 

And in this division, with a defense that still needs work and a schedule that includes the AFC South, I think shootouts are inevitable for the Saints. 

Runner-up: Ladarius Green, Chargers. (Opportunity)—Every year is Ladarius Green's breakout year. He's been on the precipice of breaking out since the Berlin Wall came down. No, but seriously, with Antonio Gates suspended early, Green could take a starting role and never look back.

Offensive Tackle: Jake Matthews, Atlanta Falcons

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Midseason improvement.

From Weeks 1-11, Pro Football Focus had Matthews graded at minus-34.2. From Weeks 12-17? Merely minus-2.6. 

Matthews definitely has the pedigree to be successful as a first-round pick, and though it's a small sample size, I'd bet that this is a turn of the corner rather than a random patch of success. The Falcons are committed to him at left tackle for the foreseeable future. 

That, plus an easier schedule for the NFC South this year, leads me to believe that his performance will be more like the last few weeks and less like the first 11. 

Runner-up: Matt Kalil, Minnesota Vikings. (Regression)—No player was as famously lampooned by PFF than Kalil, which inspired head coach crying sessions. The fact of the matter is, though, that Kalil was a player with a plus-8.3 total through his first two seasons before putting up a minus-29.3 total last season. Unless there's an injury we don't know about, betting on Kalil improving is where the smart money is.

Guard: Jahri Evans, New Orleans Saints

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Bounce-back.

Evans, who, per Pro Football Focus' charting, had been graded at plus-18.9 in 2012 and plus-12.0 in 2013, cratered in 2014, stumbling to a rating of minus-6.5.

But most of his decline was in pass protection, and pass protection decline is something that could be caused by, say, injured ligaments in a wrist. It also says a lot to me that, despite overhauling their offensive line, the Saints went ahead and brought back Evans this season. 

So even though Evans is already 31, I think there's a bounce-back season here. A weaker schedule should also help play into it. 

Runner-up: Larry Warford, Detroit Lions. (Regression)—PFF rating of plus-6.8 in 2014 after a plus-24.2 rookie season. With ancient center Dominic Raiola (age 36) replaced and first-round pick Laken Tomlinson in the fold, Detroit should have a better interior line this year.

Center: Alex Mack, Cleveland Browns

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Injury bounce-back.

One of the best centers in today's game, Mack broke his leg in Week 6 and missed the entire rest of the season. 

Unfortunately, center is a shallow position and a place where it's hard to forecast improvement—but we have an answer of least resistance in Mack, since he's already a star. Broken legs don't usually cause a lot of long-term concern, and since Mack is in the prime of his career, he should have little trouble bouncing back.

That will be a boon for what is projecting to be one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

Runner-up: Travis Swanson, Detroit Lions. (Playing out of position)—Swanson played right guard for most of his disastrous snaps in his rookie season. In 89 snaps at center, he was rated at plus-1.3. As a whole, he rated at minus-10.7, per PFF. I'm expecting performances more in line with his play at center than his overall play on the line.

Defensive End: Kony Ealy, Panthers

Chris Keane/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Midseason improvement.

Ealy finished 56th out of 59 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus, but he started coming around in December. From Weeks 1-11, his rating was minus-14. From Week 13 on, including the playoffs, he was at minus-1.4. And, more importantly for the Greg Hardy-less Panthers, he was a much better pass-rusher, picking up sacks in each of the last three weeks of the regular season. 

Ealy is in line for a lot of playing time this season if he's ready. The non-Charles Johnson Panthers edge-rushers are fill-ins and run-stuffing types. 

This is a little bit of projection, but I can't see why Ealy wouldn't be able to beat them out for pass-rushing duties. And if he does, he should be regarded much more highly coming into 2016.

Runner-up: Lamarr Houston, Chicago Bears (injury). With Pernell McPhee in town and a new scheme brought over by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, look for Houston to recover quickly from his embarrassing torn ACL and prove how worthy he was of his five-year, $35 million contract.

Defensive Tackle: Geno Atkins, Cincinnati Bengals

David Richard/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Injury bounce-back.

Atkins was one of the understated forces of the NFL through 2013, but after tearing his ACL in Week 9 of that season, his absence was notable as the Cincinnati pass rush declined in 2014.

Atkins notched only three sacks last year, causing defensive coordinator Paul Guenther to note that he was "just a guy" out there, per ESPN.com's Coley Harvey.

I, for one, am not ready to give up on Atkins. He was better than Guenther noted last season, and he's got a chance to bounce all the way back with another full offseason of rest and rehab—he clearly was not completely right last season. 

Runner-up: Randy Starks, Cleveland Browns. (New situation)—Starks' run defense went from great to horrendous in a hurry—he had a three-game stretch in the middle of the season for PFF where he racked up a cumulative minus-12.7 rating. But on a team with what looks to be a stacked front, moving over to the 3-technique end rather than playing inside, I'm betting that Starks looks a lot better and that those were three bad games rather than a sign of impending decline.

Outside Linebacker: Khalil Mack, Oakland Raiders

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Better pass-rushing skills.

Mack had a largely successful rookie season, but he only brought the quarterback down four times, which doesn't mesh with the impression we got at draft time—that he'd be an elite pass-rusher.

Mack did, however, show some pass-rushing skills. He finished tied for fourth among all outside linebackers with 40 hurries, per Pro Football Focus. Only Justin Houston, Von Miller and Ryan Kerrigan had more. 

This year, I'm expecting Mack to take another step forward and solidify himself as an elite defender rather than just an excellent run-stuffer.

Runner-up: Jadeveon Clowney, Houston Texans. (Injury)—Clowney's 2014 season never really got a chance to get started, as he hurt his knee against Washington in Week 1 and eventually needed microfracture surgery. But remember, he was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason, and every sign we have out of Houston has been positive regarding his comeback from the injury.

Inside Linebacker: Demario Davis, New York Jets

James Kenney/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: New scheme.

Jets fans are understandably excited about their defense after adding Darrelle Revis and further strengthening their secondary in free agency, then adding USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams in the draft. 

But one guy who might be a little under the radar is Davis, who finally broke through as a cover linebacker last season. 

Jets head coach Todd Bowles has a lot of experience putting middle linebackers in optimal situations—to the point where he managed to mostly hide the aging Larry Foote last season. This is a terrific situation for a middle linebacker already, and Davis' talent means he could take the leap into the league's best in 2015.

Runner-up: NaVorro Bowman, San Francisco 49ers. (Injury)—A healthy NaVorro Bowman is, with Patrick Willis retired, the best middle linebacker in the NFL. Of course, we don't know what percentage Bowman will be showing up at this season. Is he going to instantly be back to who he was before the 2013 NFC Championship Game, or will it take a year? Either way, the 49ers are going to improve. It's just a matter of by how much.

Cornerback: Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota VIkings

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Midseason improvement.

Rhodes is another young player who fits neatly into the raw first-half/better second-half dichotomy. Through Week 8, Rhodes had notched a PFF rating of minus-3.2. From then on? Plus-6.5. 

There's nothing to disprove this notion based on his first-round pedigree. B/R's own Cian Fahey, who watched all the cornerback's pass snaps for a project he does, believes there's still work to be done here.

This is true, but reaching the top cornerback tier is not beyond Rhodes' talent. The biggest jump is often from a player's first season to the second season. Expect Rhodes to establish a new level of play in 2015. 

Runner-up: Bashaud Breeland, Washington. (Inconsistency)—Breeland proved capable of creating big things as a rookie in 2014. Unfortunately, those things were both good and bad. But because we've seen that Breeland can have great games at the NFL level already, be willing to bet on him improving this offseason.

Safety: Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans Saints

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Why He'll Improve: Regression.

New Orleans' safety tandem was abysmal in 2014. Though both of them have cases to bounce back, Kenny Vaccaro's decline was perhaps more perplexing than Jairus Byrd's. Vaccaro went from a plus-3.1 PFF rating in 2013—mostly because of a bad few first games—and fell all the way to minus-19.0 in 2014.

Vaccaro battled injuries throughout last season, which is more of a reason to believe in his resurgence. He fought through these because being a Saints safety was the second most dangerous profession in the NFL last year, behind only "playing for the Giants." All three of New Orleans' non-Vaccaro safeties who broke camp wounded up on IR.

Vaccaro may not bounce all the way back to where he was in 2013, but even if he won't, he can at least shoot for average play. That's still significantly better than the Saints got out of him last season. 

Runner-up: T.J. Ward, Denver Broncos. (New scheme, Regression)—Ward played better down the stretch for the Broncos, who are now without the defensive coordinator who seemed to have no idea how to properly use him (Jack Del Rio). Wade Phillips' scheme should put Ward in some simpler situations in man coverage, which will help him out since he's not really a lockdown cover player.