2009 NFL Picks: Week One

Best Bet

1. Baltimore Ravens (-13) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are not coming into this game in good shape. They fired their offensive coordinator just a week ago and QB Matt Cassel probably won’t be ready to go. And even if he is, it won’t really matter.

Look for Baltimore to take Larry Johnson out of the game and then force whoever plays at QB into turnovers. Offensively, the Ravens will find a lot of success both on the ground and through the air. This is the safest bet on the board.

Next in Line

2. New Orleans Saints (-13) vs. Detroit Lions

Even with starting RB Pierre Thomas likely to sit this one out, it should be a laugher. The Lions defense will have no answers for Drew Brees’ passing attack, and running backs Reggie Bush and Mike Bell will do fine on the ground.

Defensively, aside from a few plays by Calvin Johnson, the Saints' D should have things under control. Playing with a big lead will render RB Kevin Smith useless and DC Gregg Williams’ blitz package will force QB Matt Stafford into multiple turnovers.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) vs. Indianapolis Colts

If there’s one divisional team which constantly gives the Colts fits, it’s the Jaguars. For whatever the reason, they play Manning tough. This will also be the first game under new coach Jim Caldwell, so we’ll have to see how the team responds to his coaching style.

With star S Bob Sanders out of the mix, the Colts’ D looks rather ordinary. Look for Jacksonville to rely heavily on RB Maurice Jones-Drew and eat away at the Colts’ smaller defense, keeping Manning and Co. sitting on the sidelines. The Colts should win, but it won’t be by seven.

4. New England Patriots (-11.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills were so bad this preseason they fired their offensive coordinator (as well [see: the wrong end of the best bet]). The Pats, on the other hand, have been hitting on all cylinders with their No. 1 starters and we think they’re going to send a message to the rest of the league letting everyone know they’re back.

Look for Brady and Co. to come out firing and for the Pats defense, playing with a large lead to stifle Edwards and Co.

Others We Like

New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Washington Redskins

Don’t expect this to be a high-scoring affair, as both the Giants and Redskins possess top-10 defenses. While both have some question marks on offense, the 'Skins have more. In the end, the Giants—playing at home—will execute their offensive game plan more effectively and cover the point spread.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) vs. Denver Broncos

How many times have the Bengals been favorites on opening day against anyone in the past decade? Very few. Here, they look like an excellent bet facing the lowly Denver Broncos. Look for Palmer’s return to re-ignite this offense—and team—to enable the Bengals to win by at least seven.

New York Jets (+4.5) vs. Houston Texans

See below.

Money Line

New York Jets (+190) vs. Houston Texans

It sometimes happens where teams with playoff aspirations falter out of the gate (Jacksonville a year ago). This game has "stumble" written all over it. While the Texans have a talented team—especially at the skill positions (Slaton, Johnson, Daniels, etc.), Schaub comes in less than 100 percent, leaving the Texans vulnerable.

The Jets are the more physical team and will beat Houston in the trenches. Even though they’re playing without DE Shaun Ellis and LB Calvin Pace, they still have plenty of talent/depth to overcome those losses.

Defensively, look for them to key in on Steve Slaton, making Houston one-dimensional. Offensively, expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington on the ground to keep Mark Sanchez in manageable passing situations.

The game will be close, but we like the Jets to pull out the 20-17 victory.