MLB Players Creating Identities as Clutch Performers

For nearly two decades, the face of "clutch" in baseball was New York's Derek Jeter. Heck, one of his many nicknames—Captain Clutch—was built around his uncanny knack for coming through with a key hit when his team needed it the most.

But the end of his Hall of Fame career didn't signal the end of clutch hitting in baseball. For there's a new generation of players who have displayed the same kind of ability, some on a far bigger stage than others.

While some will still argue that there's no such thing as "clutch," advanced statistics beg to differ.

Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs have developed their own unique formulas for calculating a player's clutch score based on win probabilities, with both using a score of 1.00 as average. You can find a detailed explanation of both by clicking on the above links.

One thing to keep in mind about "clutch" is that past production typically means nothing. A player can be clutch one season and completely useless in the clutch the following year. It's those players who are able to deliver in those situations year after year who are truly "clutch" performers.

In order to whittle down the list of active players to those who are creating identities as clutch performers, we'll set the following parameters for possible inclusion on our list:

• A player must not have made his major league debut before 2011
• A player must have at least 1,500 plate appearances since the start of the 2011 season
• A player must have a positive clutch score on both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs from 2011 to 2015

We'll also look at how a player performs in specific situations, whether it be high leverage or with runners in scoring position.

Which of these emerging stars-in-the-clutch do you want stepping to the plate with the game on the line? Let's take a look.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Detroit Tigers

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Clutch Scores 

Baseball-Reference	FanGraphs	Avg. Score
3.20	2.53	2.87

Even though Yoenis Cespedes' time in Boston was short, he made a quick impression on Red Sox manager John Farrell, who took note of his penchant for coming through in the clutch.

"Cespy has been so good since coming over to us, getting RBIs in key moments, late-inning situations," Farrell told ESPN.com's Mark Polishuk last August. "Once again, today, with a game-winner. Whether it's been with a base hit or a long ball, he's been big for us late in games."

For all of the knocks that the 29-year-old has taken since making his MLB debut for Oakland in 2012, one constant has been his ability to produce in tight spots and when there are runners on base, whether they're in scoring position or not:

Situation	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Men On	1015	.285	.331	.488	.819
RISP	581	.304	.360	.508	.868
RISP w/2 Outs	263	.290	.350	.469	.819
High Leverage	402	.311	.356	.515	.871
Medium Leverage	793	.282	.334	.511	.845

Those are some pretty impressive numbers, and you can bet that contenders thinking about making a run at Cespedes before the upcoming trade deadline—Detroit is expected to trade him (and others), according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale—are taking his ability to produce in the clutch into account.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Clutch Scores 

Baseball-Reference	FanGraphs	Avg. Score
1.90	1.94	1.92

You might see Paul Goldschmidt's inclusion here and be saying to yourself, "Well duh, he's a perennial MVP candidate so of course he's a clutch performer." But that'd be a foolish thing to say, because MVP credentials don't guarantee success in the clutch.

Take a look at how each of the five position players who has won a MVP award since 2011 has fared in the clutch compared to Arizona's "Golden Boy":

Player	Baseball-Ref	FanGraphs	Avg. Score
Ryan Braun	-0.30	-0.09	-0.195
Miguel Cabrera	1.00	0.19	0.595
Andrew McCutchen	0.10	-0.38	-0.140
Buster Posey	0.80	0.55	0.675
Mike Trout	-0.60	-0.51	-0.555
Paul Goldschmidt	1.90	1.94	1.92

That's right—the recipients of baseball's highest single-season individual honor are all below-average performers in clutch situations. Perhaps most striking is that the game's best all-around player, Mike Trout, is actually a liability in those situations.

Now consider what Goldschmidt has been able to accomplish without the protection of a Prince Fielder, Victor Martinez or Albert Pujols hitting directly behind him, and his accomplishments in the clutch become all the more impressive.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Clutch Scores 

Baseball-Reference	FanGraphs	Avg. Score
4.20	3.80	4.00

Eric Hosmer showed off his clutch hitting skills more than once during Kansas City's remarkable run to the World Series last year, but the truth is that he was delivering in the clutch long before the Royals reached the playoffs.

Take a look at Hosmer's regular-season splits in different leverage situations:

Situation	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
High Leverage	537	.299	.368	.438	.806
Medium Leverage	1022	.288	.340	.456	.796
Low Leverage	1195	.259	.308	.382	.690

A high-leverage situation, for example, would be stepping to the plate with a runner on second late in a tie game, while a low-leverage situation is akin to hitting late in a game when your team has a 10-run lead.

Keeping with the same criteria for inclusion as we did for this exercise (a player in the first five years of his career with a minimum number of plate appearances), Hosmer is the only player to crack the top five for OPS in both high-leverage (fourth) and medium-leverage situations (first).

The numbers don't lie: Hosmer is at his best when Kansas City needs him the most, and it's a major reason why, whether looking at Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs, he earns the top clutch score using either metric (under the parameters we set earlier).

Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Clutch Scores 

Baseball-Reference	FanGraphs	Avg. Score
1.00	2.67	1.84

Salvador Perez might be a three-time American League All-Star, but Kansas City's 25-year-old catcher is not what you'd call one of baseball's elite hitters. His career numbers are solid (.280 BA, .741 OPS), especially for a catcher, but they don't necessarily strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.

Except maybe they should. A deeper look at how Perez fares at the plate reveals him to be one of baseball's emerging clutch hitters, especially when there's a runner in scoring position:

Situation	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	492	.304	.333	.486	.819
RISP w/2 Outs	232	.324	.353	.555	.908

If we take away the requirement that a player be in the first five years of his career, Perez ranks 16th in baseball since 2011 with a .908 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position (minimum 200 plate appearances)—the only catcher to crack the .900 plateau.

San Francisco's Buster Posey is the next backstop on that list, ranking 25th with a .860 OPS, nearly 50 points lower than Perez's mark. While most fans would pick Posey over Perez to step to the plate with runners in scoring position, it turns out that Perez provides the best opportunity to bring that runner home.

Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Clutch Scores 

Baseball-Reference	FanGraphs	Avg. Score
3.10	3.03	3.07

If I asked you to rattle off the names of baseball's best third basemen, how long would it take you to get to Kyle Seager? Unless you're a devout fan of the Seattle Mariners, chances are that the 27-year-old wouldn't be one of the first five names that popped into your head.

That's a shame. Not only has Seager developed into one of baseball's best keepers of the hot corner since making his MLB debut in 2011, but he's quietly become one of the game's best clutch performers.

Consider this, courtesy of the Seattle Times' Ryan Divish: "Eight of Kyle Seager's 14 home runs this season (2015) have either given the Mariners a lead (five go-ahead HR) or tied the game (three game-tying HR)." 

Against the New York Yankees on July 17, Seager hit both a game-tying home run (third inning) and a go-ahead home run (fifth inning), while he hit a pair of go-ahead home runs—one a grand slam—against Tampa Bay on May 26.

Perhaps if he played in a bigger market or wasn't overshadowed by the likes of Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez, the rest of the baseball universe would understand what those in Seattle already know—Seager is one of the few players you want at the plate with the game on the line.

Unless otherwise linked or noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through games of July 20.

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