2025 NFL Week 6 Expert Picks

In Week 5, nine underdogs covered in 14 games and every one of our NFL experts finished with a record above .500. 

However, the B/R betting crew, which includes analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell, won't bask in the glory of its best collective week.

They're looking to stack midseason wins and stay out of the red in October. 

For the first time this season, our panel didn't come to a unanimous agreement on any of the games on the slate. You'll see dueling opinions for each matchup, with strong cases for both sides. 

Check out where our experts rank in the latest standings and their Week 6 breakdowns against the spread.

ATS Standings 

T-1: Knox: 41-37

T-1. Moton: 41-37

T-3. Hanford: 39-39 

T-3. Sobleski: 39-39 

5. O'Donnell: 38-40 

T-6. Davenport: 37-41

T-6. Gagnon: 37-41 

Lone Wolf Picks: 8-7

Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Oct. 7, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown

DK Line: Eagles (-7)

Davenport: Giants (+7)

Fun fact: The number of points the Eagles are laying on the road this week equals the number of sacks the team has after five weeks—tied for third-fewest in the league. Philly is also 0-4-1 against a spread this big this season.

Yes, an angry Philadelphia team could put it all together this week and blast the New York Giants, but MetLife Stadium has historically been a challenging venue for visiting teams. And the Eagles have not yet delivered a truly dominant road performance this season.

O'Donnell: Eagles (-7)

The Giants haven't won a Thursday Night Football game since 2015. The 0-7 Thursday record for Big Blue comes with an average loss of nearly 10 points per game. Three of those losses have been to the Eagles. Philly is coming off a loss and hasn't lost back-to-back games since the 2023 season. 

A former Giants running back returns to the first stadium he called home, while the passing game will have a chance to get right against a secondary that will struggle to match up with Philly's pass-catchers, even if New York's pass rush plays tough.

The Eagles defense isn't the force it was a year ago, but rookie Jaxson Dart's first short-week matchup poses all sorts of problems for him.

We've seen some wacky things early this season, but I'm comfortable with the Eagles working out their issues against a familiar foe and covering on the road. 

Predictions

Eagles: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Giants: Davenport, Sobleski

Denver Broncos (3-2) vs. New York Jets (0-5) in London

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix

DK Line: Broncos (-7.5)

Gagnon: Jets (+7.5)

Denver is 1-2 with an even scoring margin away from home this season and might be riding a high coming off that impressive victory over the Eagles.

I can see them taking the Jets a little too lightly, especially after a trip across the Atlantic from Philadelphia.

The Jets are bad, but not as bad as their record. Three of their five losses have come by a single score. That, plus a potential backdoor cover, has me backing them here. 

Moton: Broncos (-7.5)

The Jets are the only winless team, and unfortunately for them and their fanbase, this isn't the week when they pull off an upset win.

This game won't be close, considering the Broncos can slow down Gang Green's top receiver, Garrett Wilson, with All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Breece Hall won't find much success against Denver's fifth-ranked run defense.

Currently, the Broncos look like the best team in the AFC West. They'll handle business against a far inferior team in London. The Jets won't have an answer for their momentum.

Predictions

Broncos: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Jets: Gagnon

Dallas Cowboys (2-2-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott

DK Line: Cowboys (-3.5)

Knox: Panthers (+3.5)

This is mostly a gut pick. I don't think the Panthers are quite as bad as they might have felt after blowout losses to the Jags and Pats, and they've been much better at home.

I doubt we'll see the blowout win Carolina engineered against Atlanta, but the Panthers can keep it close against the Cowboys.

Carolina might not be a great team, but it isn't Jets-level bad, either. 

Sobleski: Cowboys (-3.5)

The Cowboys are in the groove offensively as the league's No. 1-ranked unit. With or without CeeDee Lamb in the lineup, others are stepping up and posting big numbers with quarterback Dak Prescott dealing.

Conversely, the Panthers aren't nearly as explosive and feature a bottom-10 scoring offense. Bryce Young has struggled to match the production of quarterbacks such as Dak Prescott.

Predictions

Cowboys: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Sobleski

Panthers: Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Cleveland Browns (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

AP Photo/Ian Walton

DK Line: Steelers (-5.5)

Davenport: Browns (+5.5)

It's been many years since the Browns last won in Pittsburgh, and they haven't scored 20 points in a game since that wild Jameis Winston-led shootout in Denver last December.

Playing in Pittsburgh poses a difficult challenge for Cleveland quarterbacks, but this spread is too big for a Steelers team that ranks 29th in total offense and 28th in total defense. The AFC North is the new AFC South, and that's not a compliment.

Hanford: Steelers (-5.5)

The Steelers are 14-4 coming off their bye week since 2007, including an eight-game winning streak dating back to 2017. They've won those games by an average of nearly eight points, and I'm expecting another win by a touchdown or so here.

This will be Dillon Gabriel's first AFC North divisional contest, and it comes on the road in Pittsburgh, where Cleveland has lost 19 of its last 20.

Throw in a long weekend of travel last weekend for the Browns, and this feels like a game not even their pass rush can swing.

Predictions

Browns: Davenport

Steelers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Arizona Cardinals (2-3) at Indianapolis Colts (4-1)

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray

DK Line: Colts (-6.5)

Knox: Colts (-6.5)

I'm still not convinced the Colts are as good as their 4-1 record might indicate, but I'm fairly sure Arizona is worse than its three close losses might suggest. Its defense is mostly solid, but it seriously lacks an offensive identity.

Teams that find creative ways to lose tend to keep doing it, and after last week's meltdown, the Cardinals feel like a squad on the verge of collapse.

If the Colts lay it on like they did against the Raiders, this could be the game that truly sparks a spiral in Arizona. 

Sobleski: Cardinals (+6.5)

Arizona endured a crushing loss to the Tennessee Titans, which required a myriad of outlandish factors going against them.

When something like that occurs, a team usually responds in one of two ways. Either the defeat destroys the squad's morale, or the team bounces back with something to prove. The Cardinals are talented enough for the latter to happen.

They may not escape Indianapolis with a victory, but a new level of energy should be enough to keep the game close.

Predictions

Cardinals: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Colts: Gagnon, Knox

Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)

AP Photo/Carrie Giordano

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert

DK Line: Chargers (-4.5)

Hanford: Dolphins (+4.5)

This is somewhat of a gut call, but Miami has shown more fight in recent weeks, and I like the underdog to keep things close here as the Chargers have to travel cross country. 

The Dolphins' run defense has been atrocious this season, but the Chargers just lost Omarion Hampton to an ankle injury. I don't think the new RB committee will be able to exploit the Fins' run defense as much as it would like, and Miami's pass rush is able to get to Justin Herbert just enough behind a banged-up OL.

The Chargers leave Miami with a win, but it won't be easy.

Sobleski: Chargers (-4.5)

The Chargers are making the always-difficult West-to-East Coast trip with a 1 p.m. Eastern start. Los Angeles is also coming off a one-sided loss to the Washington Commanders. To make matters worse, the squad's offensive line remains in flux due to injuries.

However, defense travels, and the Chargers own a top-five pass defense. Los Angeles is also tied for fifth in sacks generated.

A Tyreek Hill-less Dolphins offense should struggle to move the ball for stretches. 

Predictions

Chargers: Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Dolphins: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford

Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (1-4)

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua

DK Line: Rams (-7.5)

Moton: Rams (-7.5)

As of Wednesday, the Baltimore Ravens hadn't confirmed who will start at quarterback.

Lamar Jackson is battling a hamstring injury. They could trot out Cooper Rush, who struggled mightily against the Houston Texans last week, or insert Tyler Huntley, a longtime backup who filled in for Jackson between 2021 and 2023.

Against the Los Angeles Rams, it won't matter who the Ravens start at quarterback if Jackson can't play Sunday. Baltimore's defense is giving up the most points and the second-most yards, and it ranks 27th in pressure rate (15.6 percent).

Matthew Stafford will have plenty of time to pick apart the Ravens defense, which may be without several key starters in consecutive weeks.

Coming off extra days of rest and preparation, the Rams cover in a blowout.

O'Donnell: Ravens (+7.5)

We don't know the status of Jackson for Week 6 (at the time of writing). Hamstring issues are notoriously finicky. And after the performance put forth by Rush a week ago, it's no surprise to see the majority of the panel backing the road-favorite Rams.

L.A. is giving up fewer than 94 yards per game on the ground, and the Derrick Henry downfall appears to be very real. 

Nothing I've written here gives confidence in backing Baltimore. And that's just it. We don't know if Jackson will play. The Ravens' season is effectively on the line. Only three NFL teams have ever started a season 1-5 and made the playoffs since the merger.

Give me these points against a Rams team that doesn't always win pretty. There remains potential for an unexpected result, given the Ravens' past resilience.

Predictions

Rams: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Ravens: Gagnon, O'Donnell

San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1)

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones

DK Line: Buccaneers (-3)

Hanford: 49ers (+3)

I'm not sure what's more amazing: Baker Mayfield's MVP-level play this season or the fact that the 49ers lead the NFL in passing yards per game with a QB duo of Brock Purdy and Mac Jones.

It's hard to get a feel for this one, but I lean 49ers. They should be rested after having 10 days off, and they're potentially getting Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings back to their surprisingly prolific passing attack.

I feel like I back the Bucs every week, and it pains me not to do it here, but Mayfield doesn't find the magic this week, and the 49ers get a big road win.

Knox: Buccaneers (-3)

I'd feel better about backing the Bucs here if they had a more pronounced home-field advantage. However, it's still a long trip for a 49ers team coming off an exhausting win against the rival Rams.

The extra days off will help, but San Francisco will struggle to keep pace with a Tampa team learning how to win at the buzzer.

Predictions

49ers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton

Buccaneers: Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold

DK Line: Jaguars (-1.5)

Davenport: Jaguars (-1.5)

This will be the most entertaining game of Week 1 that no one outside Seattle and Jacksonville will watch. Two sneaky-good teams with quarterbacks playing well who have exceeded expectations.

If the Jaguars want to be considered a legit contender in a loaded AFC, this is the kind of game they need to win. There can be no post-Chiefs letdown.

Jacksonville has taken care of business at home and emerged as a strong contender this season.

O'Donnell: Seahawks (+1.5)

Has Trevor Lawrence ever led the Jaguars to four straight victories? Yes, he has. Twice. Once to close the 2022 season and again midway through the 2023 season. This isn't uncharted territory.

A slightly short week turnaround after the thrilling MNF win over the Chiefs poses its own issues, though. 

The Jags are 4-8 ATS with a rest disadvantage, 5-8 ATS in the Lawrence era as home favorites, and 9-13 in non-conference games. The Seahawks' 3-2 record comes courtesy of two very late home losses, and they're 2-0 on the road so far this year.

Though 1.5 points is barely a number at all, I'll take a little insurance in the event the Seahawks don't pull the outright victory. Lawrence and the Jags have duped us before.

Predictions

Seahawks: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Jaguars: Davenport, Sobleski

Tennessee Titans (1-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

AP Photo/David Becker

Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty

DK Line: Raiders (-4.5)

Moton: Raiders (-4.5)

The Las Vegas Raiders looked totally disinterested in the final quarter of their last outing, which ended in a 40-6 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. It can't get much worse for the Silver and Black.

Geno Smith has thrown a league-high nine interceptions, and star tight end Brock Bowers is battling a knee injury that sidelined him last week. 

Nonetheless, the Raiders can keep the ball on the ground against the Titans' 30th-ranked run defense, which has allowed the most rushing scores through five weeks.

This game should resemble Las Vegas' matchup with the Chicago Bears' 31st-ranked run defense.

Ashton Jeanty runs for 100-plus yards and scores multiple times, but the Raiders don't allow the Titans to block a game-winning field goal. Instead, they win by a touchdown thanks to another big game out of Jeanty. 

Sobleski: Titans (+4.5)

The Raiders have surrendered an average of 35.3 points per game over the previous three weeks.

Granted, Cam Ward and the Titans are still figuring things out offensively. But flashes are present, and Tennessee is coming off its first win of the season, where the QB attempted the most passes and threw for the most yards in his young career. 

The rookie is bound to make a mistake or two. Even so, this pick is purely a case of not believing in what the Raiders are doing and taking the points. 

Predictions

Titans: Davenport, Gagnon, Sobleski

Raiders: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)

AP Photo/Matt Patterson

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love

DK Line: Packers (-14)

Knox: Packers (-14)

This is probably too many points to lay on the Packers against a team that will start the QB who just beat them a couple of weeks ago.

With Joe Flacco and 25 percent of the offensive playbook, though, I expect turnovers to be an issue for Cincinnati.

The Green Bay defense has looked much better at home this season, and a late takeaway will preserve a large win for the Packers. 

Moton: Bengals (+14)

On Tuesday, the Bengals acquired Joe Flacco from the Cleveland Browns. He's not a significant upgrade over Jake Browning—they're both in the top two in interceptions—but the savvy 18-year veteran will do enough to keep this within a two-plus touchdown margin.

In Cleveland, Flacco didn't have Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. With those two receivers, he can give the Bengals a chance to make this a competitive matchup. 

Predictions

Bengals: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton 

Packers: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

New England Patriots (3-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-4)

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye

DK Line: Patriots (-3.5)

Gagnon: Saints (+3.5)

Just like with the Broncos in London following a thrilling victory in Philly, I'm wary of a good-not-great team trying to keep that energy up as it continues a road trip.

That's the case with the Patriots as they jump from Buffalo to New Orleans. But a field goal plus a hook against a team that has an even scoring margin in three home games this season? No thanks. 

Moton: Patriots (-3.5)

Both teams are coming off wins, though the Patriots had the more impressive victory, going to Buffalo to knock off the last unbeaten team in the prime-time Sunday Night Football slot.

While it's difficult to ride that adrenaline for consecutive weeks on the road, they're clearly a better club than the one-win Saints.

New England will sell out to stop New Orleans' run-heavy offense, which ranks sixth in rush attempts, forcing Spencer Rattler to win the game through the air.

Drake Maye outperforms the Saints signal-caller to show he has officially arrived as one of the league's hot-shot quarterbacks in another impressive performance to give the Patriots the win by a touchdown or more.

Predictions

Patriots: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Saints: Gagnon, Hanford, Sobleski

Detroit Lions (4-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)

AP Photo/Kareem Elgazzar

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown

DK Line: Chiefs (-2.5)

Hanford: Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs cost themselves with sloppy play in their MNF loss, but it might have been their strongest offensive showing of the season, as they racked up over 476 total yards against a good Jaguars defense.

The Lions defense struggled earlier this season against Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson, and I like Mahomes to turn in another strong performance, especially with Detroit cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed on the shelf with injuries. 

The health of Chiefs LT Josh Simmons will factor in here against a productive Lions pass rush, but my gut has the Chiefs keeping themselves in the AFC fight with a gutsy win at home against a red-hot Detroit team.

O'Donnell: Lions (+2.5)

The Chiefs have beaten the Giants and Ravens this season, two teams with a combined two wins.

I often struggle with doubting Kansas City, and it could well win this game, but the Lions are 5-2 when getting points on the road since 2023 and 17-4 as an away team overall.

Can the Chiefs defense do enough to slow down a Lions offense that has scored 34 points or more in its last four games? If it's a shootout and a potential last-drive-wins scenario, I'd rather have the points in my pocket. 

Predictions

Lions: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Chiefs:  Gagnon, Hanford, Moton

Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

AP Photo/ Jeffrey T. Barnes

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

DK Line: Bills (-4.5)

Gagnon: Falcons (+4.5)

I have little doubt the juggernaut Bills can bounce back with a win here, but Atlanta has a plus-four scoring margin in two home games against 2024 division winners Tampa Bay and Washington this season.

The Falcons have also had two weeks to prepare coming off their bye, and Buffalo's struggling run defense also presents a good opportunity for Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta offense to set the pace and keep this thing competitive. 

O'Donnell: Bills (-4.5)

I'm going to keep this real simple. This is a Falcons team that was blanked by the Carolina Panthers. The Bills are coming off a humbling division loss to the Patriots.

There are flaws in Buffalo's game, but there are more in Atlanta's than I'm comfortable with right now, mainly its QB's erratic play.

The Falcons are also 0-4-1 ATS in non-conference games under Raheem Morris in his second stint with the team. Josh Allen and the Bills get a chance for a statement victory after last week's prime-time loss, and I'm on the wagon for it. 

Predictions

Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Falcons: Gagnon

Chicago Bears (2-2) at Washington Commanders (3-2)

AP Photo/John Locher

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams

DK Line: Commanders (-4.5)

Davenport: Bears (+4.5)

The Commanders did look sharp against the Chargers in Week 5—they spotted the Bolts 10 points and then dominated them. They have also won both games at home decisively.

Washington's home wins came against struggling teams, but the Bears present a stronger challenge under Ben Johnson.

The Chicago head coach had an extra week to prep. And Washington's defense is decent. The Bears will move the ball and score plenty, but then lose late on a field goal.

Gagnon: Commanders (-4.5)

Chicago hasn't lost since getting hammered by the Lions nearly a month ago, but now the Bears are running into Washington with Jayden Daniels back from a knee injury.

The Commanders looked crisp in a Week 5 road victory over the talented Chargers and are 5-0 straight-up and ATS at home since the start of last December. They should take care of business by about a touchdown or more. 

Predictions

Bears: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Commanders: Gagnon, Knox, Moton

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