Breaking Down Steven Stamkos' Value as a Trade Chip

In January, Steven Stamkos said that he planned to re-sign with the Tampa Bay Lighting as soon as possible, according to a report filed by Pierre LeBrun and Scott Burnside of ESPN. The team captain hoped that a deal could be hammered out during the summer, but to date there hasn't been any major news.

Stamkos is one of the top superstars in the NHL today, and he has the opportunity to do amazing things for the Lightning over the rest of his career. His goal-scoring ability is unmatched by most, his shot is one of the more accurate in the league and he's just a great offensive juggernaut.

Tampa's elite center is well on his way toward claiming a number of team scoring records, and he currently makes $7.5 million a season. Stamkos is in a position to become the highest paid player in the entire NHL once he signs his next contract, and it could be as much as $12 million a year.

There is no question over the fact that Stamkos will get paid, but will the signature on the bottom of his checks starting in July 2016 be that of Tampa Bay Lightning owner Jeff Vinik?

Although it seems crazy, not re-signing No. 91 could prove to be a really smart move for general manager Steve Yzerman, despite the fact that in the same ESPN piece he said, "Our No. 1 priority after the season is to get Steven signed to an extension and hopefully have something to announce in and around July 1. That goes without saying, no question."

Before you wield your pitchforks and attempt to capture and launch me toward a tesla coil, give me a chance to explain my logic.

Trading Stamkos would appear to be bold, but doing so could extend Tampa's window for potential dominance in the NHL. The current roster contains a number of talented young players, and there are others on the way.

It wouldn't be the first time money resulted in the face of a franchise getting dealt, as we all know that money was at the root of the trading of Wayne Gretzky from Edmonton to Los Angeles. In this situation lack of cap space to keep a quality roster together is at play, but overall the situations are similar.

Although Yzerman by all accounts has said publicly he wants to keep Stamkos, he might have other thoughts after reflecting on his own career after the 2014-15 Lightning came up short in the Cup Final.

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"Stevie Y" was the key piece on three Stanley Cup championship teams with the Detroit Red Wings, and he knows first hand that it takes a well-rounded team to win.

The Wings had the luxury of having a wealthy owner during a time in which there was no salary cap, and that allowed Yzerman to skate with players such as Sergei Fedorov, Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille and so on for countless seasons.

The state of today's NHL is one in which every dollar counts, and teams are looking for ways to get the most bang for their buck.

In the case of Stamkos, the Lightning don't have many options when it comes to trying to stretch their dollar, because he isn't a player that can be shortchanged as he is slated to be a free agent who can get an offer on the market, no questions asked.

They do, however, have the potential to capitalize on his value via trade and then take that money and spread it out elsewhere while having the flexibility to do so. While the idea of trading Stamkos seems hard to digest given his value to the Lightning, you have to ask yourself the following question.

Stamkos is valuable, but is he more valuable than a combination of players such as Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Jonathan Drouin or Nikita Kucherov?

Make no mistake about it, if the Lightning sign Stamkos to a deal worth $12 million a year, they will be forced to deal a number of young players, and doing so could really set the franchise back. You could even go as far to say that plunking money down on Stamkos would break up the team, or at least as we know it.

This isn't a situation Tampa wants to end up in, but it is something that is going to happen unless there is unprecedented financial growth over the next two seasons.

At the end of this season Stamkos, Killorn and Kucherov will all need new deals, and here's what it could cost Tampa:

Player	Age for Upcoming Season	Current Cap Hit	Potential Next Salary Range	G	A	P	P/GP
Steven Stamkos	25	$7.5 million	$10.5 million to $12 million	43	29	72	0.88
Nikita Kucherov	22	$711,667	$3.5 million-$5 million	29	36	65	0.79
Alex Killorn	26	$2.55 million	$4 million	15	23	38	0.54

According to Hockey's Cap, the Lightning already have $48,535,833 committed to 14 players for the 2016-17 season. If the salary cap were to remain close to $71.4 million, that will leave Yzerman approximately only $23 million to fill seven roster spots, and that would be a very bad situation given the players who need a new deal.

We know Stamkos is going to get paid, but it could get interesting with Kucherov because teams would definitely offer sheet him considering the direction he is trending.

Kyle Alexander of Raw Charge outlined what he's done to date, and how Vladimir Tarasenko's deal with the St. Louis Blues is something to consider going forward if the Lightning decide to sign the young forward to an intermediate deal.

We know that money is going to be an issue no matter what player(s) the Lightning pick, but is there a way they could clear some space before they are up against the clock? In theory, the Lightning could gain some flexibility if they moved a contract like Ryan Callahan's off the roster, but there's little reason for him to move his no-trade clause and go to another team.

In addition to that, what NHL team is going to willingly help Tampa clear cap space unless they receive a premium asset in return?

General managers are opportunistic individuals, and each would salivate at the chance to ink Stamkos to a deal in free agency or swoop in on one of the young RFAs via a trade after brandishing the threat of an offer sheet. 

With that in mind, the Lightning will have two real options when it comes to tackling free agency in the offseason of 2016:

1) Sign Stamkos and move RFAs via trade for comparable future return

Option No. 1 would involve signing Stamkos to a new deal that at a minimum will be $10.5 million but there's a good chance will end up being closer to a $12 million deal.

If we use $12 million as Stamkos' new cap hit, the Lightning would have 15 players signed and $10,864,167 in cap space to fill out the remainder of the roster for the 2016-17 season.

After inking Stamkos, there would be no way to keep Kucherov and Killorn and fill out the remainder of the roster with that amount of money, and the Lightning would be in a position where teams could take advantage of their need to be cap compliant in trade negotiations 

There's a chance that would lead the franchise to accept some future assets involving draft picks, young players and prospects on entry-level deals because anything more would put the Lightning in an even more precarious fiscal figure-four leg lock going forward.

2) Trade Stamkos and other contract(s) and keep as many RFAs as possible

If the Lightning want to avoid getting put into submission, they could go with option No. 2 that would involve selling high on Stamkos for a package that includes a top prospect or roster player and two first-round picks.

No team is going to overpay for Stamkos when he is about to hit free agency, but there will be a team who will at least offer up a top prospect and a pair of first rounders for the Lightning superstar.

The Lightning could involve other pieces in the deal to shed salary, but any move they make will have to ensure that no additional salary is taken on in the process. A return of a top prospect and two first-round picks might seem low, but that is realistically what the team could afford if the goal would be to retain other players with the cap savings. 

Claus Andersen/Getty Images

History has shown that teams don't often get solid value for stars they are forced to move, and Rick Nash and Phil Kessel are prime examples of this. There are some differences among the three players, but the common theme would involve their availability because their team was in a bind for one reason or another.

Tampa is a team that needs to get a plan together sooner rather than later, as the summer of 2017 is set to be even more daunting than 2016. Dealing Stamkos would give the team a chance to sign as many players as possible leading up to the summer, and it would allow them to try and get decent returns for the players that can't be retained for financial reasons.

The cap crunch of next summer seems bad, but upon completion of the 2016-2017 season the following players will need a new contract:

• RFA—Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Andrei Vasilevskiy 

• UFA—Ben Bishop and Victor Hedman

Player	Age for Upcoming Season	Current Cap Hit	Next Salary Range	G	A	P	P/GP
Tyler Johnson	26	$3.3 million	$5.5 million to $7 million	29	43	72	0.94
Ondrej Palat	26	$3.3 million	$5.5 million to $7 million	16	47	63	0.84
Victor Hedman	26	$4 million	$6.5 million to $8 million	10	28	38	0.68

What makes things tough is that during the 2016 offseason Tampa won't have any players of note who they can let walk just to bank cap space, which may result in the loss of a few key players. 

A modest projection could see Victor Hedman take his salary of $4 million to $7 million, Palat and Johnson double their salaries, one of the goalies gets paid a starter's wage and Drouin get a small raise if he lives up to his potential. Drouin is likely to get a bridge deal, but if he breaks out, it would make it easier for the Lightning to move another winger.

Obviously there is no telling what the salary cap will be in 2016 or 2017, but a struggling Canadian dollar as pointed out by Lyle Richardson means that any increase would be minor in size, so Tampa will need to thin the herd as best as they can.

The team could buy some time by taking the money saved by trading Stamkos and using it to give their top RFAs a moderate raise for the interim, and when the cap opens up, extend them as needed.

In a way these deals would be slightly more in value than a bridge contract and slightly less than a mega extension, and it is conceivable that Tampa's young stars would be OK with this strategy if it gives them a chance to one day emulate the Chicago Blackhawks in terms of winning multiple championships in a short span of time.

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While Stamkos appears to have tremendous value for the Lightning, at the end of the day he is just one elite player. It is hard to imagine him sporting another NHL uniform, but it isn’t worth Tampa Bay gutting the entire roster just to keep him.

An ideal situation would see Tampa win the Stanley Cup next year, because doing so would give Yzerman cover to make whatever moves he wants.

Re-signing Stamkos is something that many fans want to see happen, but after looking at all the variables it could be a mistake that Yzerman wants to forget, because having one player over multiple players isn't smart cap management.

The youngsters of the Lightning have proven themselves to date, and they have the potential to be thrice as good as Stamkos as a collective unit for a similar price tag. It is going to be a tough decision for Yzerman to make, regardless, and it will be interesting to see which option he chooses.

Stats via Hockey-Reference and Hockey's Cap.