MLB Playoffs 2025 Divisional Round Picks and Predictions For Every Series

And then there were eight. The Wild Card round of the 2025 MLB postseason is over, and the four teams that survived are now advancing to face the four teams that earned the right to skip the line and go right to the Division Series.

This, as they say, is where things get interesting. The series have gone from best-of-three to best-of-five affairs, and they won't all take place in one city. Travel is back, putting pressure on both teams to defend their home turf.

Meanwhile, these playoffs have already set the tone for dramatic baseball. Of the four Wild Card Series, three went the distance to a Game 3 on Thursday. One team even became the first to lose Game 1 of a Wild Series Series and end up advancing anyway.

Without further delay, let's get deeper into Division Series and make some fresh predictions for how the remainder of the postseason will play out.

AL Division Series A: No. 4 New York Yankees vs. No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees/Getty Images

Aaron Judge

Schedule:

• Game 1: Saturday, October 4 in Toronto at 4:08 p.m. ET
• Game 2: Sunday, October 5 in Toronto at 4:08 p.m. ET
• Game 3: Tuesday, October 7 in New York (Time TBD)
• Game 4*: Wednesday, October 8 in New York (Time TBD)
• Game 5*: Friday, October 10 in Toronto (Time TBD)

Regular-Season Series: Blue Jays 8-5 with -3 run differential

Matchup to Watch: The Yankees' power vs. the Blue Jays' gopheritis

Confused? All me to explain with the following figures from the 2025 regular season:

• Home Runs by Yankees Hitters: 274, 1st in MLB
• Home Runs Allowed by Blue Jays Pitchers: 209, 6th in MLB

You'd think that the season series would have been a nightmare for Toronto, but the opposite was obviously true. Yet the Blue Jays won the series in spite of the home run ball, as they allowed 18 homers and only hit 13 in the head-to-head matchups between them and the Yankees.

This doesn't feel like a sustainable recipe for October. But then again, the next time these Blue Jays beat the odds won't be the first.

X-Factor: Bo Bichette

Bichette was a core part of Toronto's offense when he was healthy, batting .311 with 18 home runs. But he hasn't been healthy for about a month, and the likelihood of him being fully recovered from his knee sprain seem between slim and none.

If Bichette can't suit up at all, that's a big bat missing from a lineup that is more about depth than star power. And even if he can gather himself enough to at least play DH, well, how ready will he be for major league pitching after a month off?

Prediction: Yankees in 4

Beyond having the more explosive offense—we should probably mention Aaron Judge, who just hit over 50 homers for a fourth time—the Yankees also have better starting pitching than the Blue Jays. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are a dynamic duo, and the Red Sox can vouch for the electricity of Cam Schlittler.

Otherwise, that both teams' bullpens are an Achilles heel arguably makes that part a wash. And even the much-maligned Yankees bullpen of the last two months at least missed bats, ranking No. 1 among AL playoff teams in strikeout rate for that span.

AL Division Series B: No. 6 Detroit Tigers vs. No. 2 Seattle Mariners

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Randy Arozarena

Schedule:

• Game 1: Saturday, October 4 in Seattle at 8:38 p.m. ET
• Game 2: Sunday, October 5 in Seattle at 8:03 p.m. ET
• Game 3: Tuesday, October 7 in Detroit (Time TBD)
• Game 4*: Wednesday, October 8 in Detroit (Time TBD)
• Game 5*: Friday, October 10 in Seattle (Time TBD)

Regular-Season Series: Mariners 4-2 with +16 run differential

Matchup to Watch: Tarik Skubal vs. his Kryptonite (apparently)

Skubal only reinforced his credentials as the best pitcher in baseball in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, striking out a career-high 14 in a dominant effort over the Cleveland Guardians. And yet, here are some interesting splits from this year:

• Skubal vs. the Mariners: 5.91 ERA, 2.6 K/BB
• Skubal vs. Everyone Else: 2.00 ERA, 8.1 K/BB

The Mariners came as close as possible to having Skubal's number, and it bodes well for them that they'll be able to stack righties against him. It's as good a way as any to get to him, as 17 of the 18 homers he served up this year were against righties.

X-Factor: Randy Arozarena

Arozarena was an All-Star for the second time this year, yet he had trouble standing out in the Mariners' lineup in the latter half of the year. Though that partly had to do with the talent around him, he didn't help himself by hitting .216 with a .641 OPS in the last two months of the season.

However, this is when "Playoff Randy" tends to come out. His 1.104 OPS in the playoffs is third all-time behind only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, so don't be surprised if it's suddenly him and not Cal Raleigh or Julio Rodríguez carrying the lineup.

Prediction: Mariners in 4

A developing storyline for this series concerns Mariners All-Star Bryan Woo, who may not be available because of lingering tightness in his right pec. If so, only one of these teams will be able to deploy its best pitcher.

This said, the Mariners are a deeper, more explosive and generally better team than the Tigers. And they really stand to leverage their home-field advantage, specifically in the sense that they pitch really well at T-Mobile Park.

NL Division Series A: No. 4 Chicago Cubs vs. No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers

Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images

Dansby Swanson

Schedule:

• Game 1: Saturday, October 4 in Milwaukee at 2:08 p.m. ET
• Game 2: Monday, October 6 in Milwaukee at 9:08 p.m. ET
• Game 3: Wednesday, October 8 in Chicago (Time TBD)
• Game 4*: Thursday, October 9 in Chicago (Time TBD)
• Game 5*: Saturday, October 11 in Milwaukee (Time TBD)

Regular-Season Series: Cubs 7-6 with +4 run differential

Matchup to Watch: One defense vs. the other defense

These are the two best defensive teams still standing, whether you're going off efficiency or Outs Above Average. And the Cubs just showed how much of a difference timely defense can make in the playoffs, with Dansby Swanson putting on an absolute master class at shortstop in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series.

The Cubs are going to need as much of that as they can get, as Milwaukee's offense largely eschews the home run ball in favor of putting the ball in play. And for its part, the same was largely true of Chicago's offense in the second half (81 home runs) after it hit a ton of homers in the first half (142).

X-Factor: Jacob Misiorowski

Remember when Misiorowski made the NL All-Star team after only five starts? That was a different era, as he went on the injured list on August 3 and struggled badly enough after he returned to get knocked to the bullpen.

Still, that fastball of his got to a season-high 102.6 mph in his one and only relief appearance on September 27, which lasted 2.1 innings. He could be a huge weapon as a multi-inning fireman...so long as he's able to throw strikes, of course.

Prediction: Cubs in 5

This is the toughest Division Series matchup of the four to predict. The general feel is that both of these teams peaked before October, and it's hard to take anything for granted with either pitching staff.

What the Cubs have that the Brewers really don't, however, is an offense that doesn't need to string hits together to put runs on the board. And in October, the long ball is what you trust when everything else is in doubt.

NL Division Series B: No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies

Chris Coduto/Getty Images

Shohei Ohtani

Schedule:

• Game 1: Saturday, October 4 in Philadelphia at 6:38 p.m. ET
• Game 2: Monday, October 6 in Philadelphia at 6:08 p.m. ET
• Game 3: Wednesday, October 8 in Los Angeles (Time TBD)
• Game 4*: Thursday, October 9 in Los Angeles (Time TBD)
• Game 5*: Saturday, October 11 in Philadelphia (Time TBD)

Regular-Season Series: Phillies 4-2 with a -1 run differential

Matchup to Watch: The Dodgers vs. Kyle Schwarber

Since joining the Phillies in 2022, Schwarber has tormented the Dodgers for a 1.087 OPS and 12 home runs in 25 games. The only players with more dingers against the Dodgers over the last four seasons are Christian Walker and Manny Machado, who differ from Schwarber in that they were/are employed in the NL West.

"Schwarbs" is also on a playoff heater, with his last 28 games in October yielding 12 long balls and a .407 on-base percentage. If he keeps it up, his bat may be the difference in a series that feels like a slug fest waiting to happen.

X-Factor: Shohei Ohtani's arm

Ohtani is already off to a strong start at the plate in the playoffs, with two of his three hits opposite the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card series having left the yard. But now—and this is where the "Finally!" goes—we get to see him break out his arm for the first time in a playoff game.

Ohtani is due to start Game 1 for the Dodgers, and you just know he's going to be dialing up his fastball as high as it can go. But given the sorry state of their bullpen, the Dodgers also need length from him. It's a big ask, given that he's maxed out at six innings and 91 pitches this year.

Prediction: Phillies in 4

The bullpen matchup in this one is skewed in favor of the Phillies, who got a lot better at locking down games after Jhoan Duran came aboard at the deadline. And whereas the Dodgers have already burned Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Phillies get to lead with Cristopher Sánchez in Game 1.

Plus, the Phillies offense found an extra gear at the end of the year. For August and September, they both out-homered and out-scored the Dodgers.

League Championship Series Predictions

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Kyle Schwarber

ALCS: No. 2 Seattle Mariners over No. 4 New York Yankees in 6 games

The Yankees didn't have much trouble with the Mariners in the regular season, winning five of six head-to-head matchups and out-scoring them by 17 runs.

However, all of those games took place before the Mariners overhauled their roster at the deadline and ultimately finished 33-20. The Yankees also missed Julio Rodríguez's annual heater, as he led the AL with 3.8 fWAR after July 11. He is the superstar sidekick for Cal Raleigh that Aaron Judge doesn't really have.

What could make this prediction age terribly is if Bryan Woo continues to recover slowly from pectoral tightness. He's Seattle's best pitcher, not to mention the only reliable starter they had in road games this year.

Even still, the Mariners have the better roster and the law of averages working in their favor. After going 0-for-their-first-48, they're bound to run into a World Series appearance eventually.

NLCS: No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over No. 4 Chicago Cubs in 5 games

It's hard to be all-in on the Phillies without Zack Wheeler in the rotation, but it says a lot about how much they still have that Aaron Nola might only be their No. 4 starter.

The Phillies also have the better offense, and indeed one that trended in the opposite direction from the Cubs offense as the regular season went along. The former ranked second in OPS for the second half, compared to 16th for the Cubs.

And does home-field advantage matter in the playoffs? Let me check my notes...[sound of rustling of papers]...well, apparently not. Yet the Phillies can beg to differ, as they went an MLB-best 55-26 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

There's also a strange suspicion hovering over this Phillies team. It's hard to explain, but it feels as if a team with this much star power and this much recent success isn't going to close its contention window with only one World Series appearance to show for it.

World Series Prediction

Steph Chambers/Getty Images

The Seattle Mariners

No. 2 Seattle Mariners over No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies in 7 games

It probably wouldn't be the ratings bonanza that Major League Baseball craves, but this would have all the makings of a danged entertaining World Series.

Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber? Trea Turner and Julio Rodríguez? Randy Arozarena and Bryce Harper? Jhoan Duran and Andrés Muñoz? You could mix and match these pairings and even add a few more, but the elicited response either way is, "Heck yes."

From this far out, one is tempted to pick the Phillies. Their pitching doesn't glitch on the road, after all, and that's an area where Seattle's pitching (3.28 home ERA, 4.50 road ERA) and Citizens Bank Park would make for a fish out of water story. And if the second half is any indication, Philly's offense is one of few that can hang with Seattle.

And yet, the Mariners do have a couple hidden powers that are relevant in this context.

For one, their offense rakes on the road to the tune of a 116 wRC+, which ranked second in the league during the regular season. For two, there's a subtle battle-tested quality to these Mariners. They both played in and won more games against .500 and better teams than the Phillies this year.

And, again, law of averages. Seattle has waited long enough for a championship. And if any Mariners team is finally going to deliver, why not the best club the organization has fielded in over two decades?

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.