Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB's Top 2015 Trade Targets, Week 16
With only 11 shopping days remaining before baseball's non-waiver trade deadline, time has just about run out on teams that are still straddling the fence when it comes to what role they're going to play in the madness.
By now, if a team still isn't sure whether it should be a buyer or a seller, chances are that selling is the way to go. It's a decision the Cincinnati Reds seem to have finally made, with the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay reporting "the fire sale is in full swing."
It's the right move for the Reds, of course, especially when you consider that this is a strong seller's market, and by moving established pieces now, a team like the Reds will be able to rebuild on the fly, adding younger, less expensive pieces to form its future core of the not-so-distant future.
While current Reds like Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman and Johnny Cueto are commanding much of the attention on the rumor mill these days, they're not the only players who could be on the move.
Who raised—or diminished—their trade value during the short week following the All-Star break?
Let's take a look.
Stock Even: OF Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 16
Weekly Stats
3 G, 3-for-11 (.273), HR, 4 RBI, 5 K
Overview
Jay Bruce delivered another solid performance at the plate for Cincinnati last week, flashing the power that has a number of teams hoping to pry him loose from the Reds before the deadline.
Seemingly healthy after being limited by knee surgery in 2014—which seemed to carry over into the early part of this season—Bruce is starting to look more like the player who averaged 30 home runs and 94 RBI a year from 2010 to 2013 with each passing week.
Between his history of production, his reasonable $12.5 million salary in 2016 and the fact that he's one of the few impact bats on the market, Bruce would realistically have to go without a hit between now and the trade deadline for his value as a trade chip to plummet.
2015 Stats
87 GP, .252/.338/.468, 36 XBH (14 HR), 46 RBI, 42 BB, 81 K, 6-of-10 SB
Stock Up: CL Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
2 of 16
Weekly Stats
1 GP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2 IP, 2 H, BB, 5 K
Overview
At this point, I'm not sure how much higher Aroldis Chapman's stock can rise.
The most dominant reliever in baseball continued to mow down the opposition, tossing two scoreless innings against Cleveland on Sunday, an outing that saw him become the fastest pitcher in baseball history to record his 500th strikeout, doing so over 292 innings of work.
Teams hoping to land both Chapman and Johnny Cueto will apparently have to do so in separate deals, as USA Today's Bob Nightengale hears that the Reds don't want to package the two together.
2015 Stats
39 G, 3-3, 1.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 39.1 IP, 26 H, 21 BB, 70 K, 18-of-19 SV
Stock Even: SP Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
3 of 16
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 0-0, 4.50 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 2 K
Overview
After watching Johnny Cueto last only four innings and issue six walks—two that came with the bases loaded—many of the scouts in attendance may have questions as to whether or not Cincinnati's ace is actually healthy.
According to Cueto, the answer to that is a resounding yes.
"I feel really well today, I feel outstanding today," Cueto told MLB.com's Robert Bondy through translator Tomas Vera. "But things happen. This is what happened. I don't think [very often] in my career I've walked six batters in one game. It just happened. Things happened. It's as simple as that."
Cueto was right, as it was only the fifth time in his career—and the first since 2011—that he's issued at least six walks in a game.
So long as Cueto's arm is healthy, this outing won't scare off teams. He remains the most sought-after starter on the market.
2015 Stats
18 GS, 6-6, 2.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 122.2 IP, 89 H, 28 BB, 115 K
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Stock Even: OF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
4 of 16
Weekly Stats
3 G, 1-for-8 (.125), 5 BB, 2 K
Overview
Carlos Gomez didn't come out of the All-Star break swinging, and that's a good thing.
Gomez, who swung at 53.2 percent of the first pitches he saw over the season's first half, according to noted statistician Joel Luckhaupt, showed a far more patient approach at the plate, drawing five walks in three games, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of his walks on the season.
Despite his mediocre numbers (by his previously set standards), which are at least partially explained by the multitude of injuries he's battled—he barely avoided another one Sunday in a collision with Pittsburgh's Jordy Mercer, who had to be carted off the field—Gomez has been linked to multiple teams.
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros are the latest to express interest, but thanks to his team-friendly deal, which pays him only $9 million next season before he hits the open market, he'd be a fit on nearly every team in baseball looking for an outfielder.
That season-and-a-half of team control is poised to bring Milwaukee a substantial return—especially if Gomez can stay healthy and maintain his newfound patience at the plate when the hits start to fall.
2015 Stats
65 GP, .268/.329/.440, 27 XBH (8 HR), 41 RBI, 18 BB, 61 K, 7-of-12 SB
Stock Down: OF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
5 of 16
Weekly Stats
2 G, 1-for-7 (.143), 2B, RBI, BB, 5 K
Overview
While seven at-bats shouldn't be enough to knock Carlos Gonzalez's stock down a notch, they came on the road, adding more fuel to the argument that away from Coors Field, Gonzalez really isn't all that big of an offensive threat.
There's some truth to that, as his OPS at Coors Field (.821) is more than 100 points higher than it is on the road (.706), though his extra-base hit totals are pretty much even (16 at home, 15 on the road). The disparity is even greater when we look at his entire career.
That said, there's no disputing his natural ability or that he'd be an upgrade in a corner outfield spot for a handful of contending clubs, if only defensively.
Whether or not there's a team out there that's willing to take a chance on his ability to produce consistently—an expensive gamble considering he's due roughly $45 million through 2017—remains to be seen.
2015 Stats
84 GP, .256/.312/.449, 31 XBH (13 HR), 36 RBI, 26 BB, 69 K, 2-of-2 SB
Stock Down: SP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 16
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 0-0, 15.00 ERA, 2.66 WHIP, 3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, K
Overview
Cole Hamels is in a funk.
Philadelphia's ace failed to finish the fourth inning for the second consecutive start, getting smacked around for five earned runs and eight hits by a Miami Marlins lineup that was without Dee Gordon, Mike Morse and Giancarlo Stanton.
Four of his last seven starts have seen Hamels allow at least five earned runs, a stretch that has produced some truly awful numbers (6.10 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP).
Some teams will be concerned by his recent outings and wonder if he's injured, while others will chalk it up to the year-plus of trade speculation and lack of competitiveness in Philadelphia finally getting to the 31-year-old, who is still human despite his standing as one of the best pitchers in baseball, after all.
Regardless, outings like these do nothing to boost his trade value. At this point, the Phillies should take the best offer they can get for him and move on.
2015 Stats
19 GS, 5-7, 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 119.2 IP, 113 H, 37 BB, 124 K
Stock Up: SP Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
7 of 16
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 0-0, 1.08 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 5 H, BB, 5 K
Overview
Teams looking for proof that Scott Kazmir is fully healthy need only to watch video of his outing this past Saturday against Minnesota, where he overcame a 25-pitch first inning to come within two outs of a complete-game shutout.
"You want him pitching for you every fifth day," Oakland catcher Stephen Vogt told MLB.com's Jane Lee after the game. "We love Scott, and what he's done for us to this point this year is pretty phenomenal. Our entire rotation, really, but he's been some kind of good."
How's this for "some kind of good"? Since allowing six earned runs to Minnesota on May 6, Kazmir has made 12 starts, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while holding opponents to a .585 OPS.
That's ace-level production, and it has Kazmir looking like he could be one of the steals of the deadline, as he's not going to cost nearly as much to acquire as the likes of Cueto or Hamels.
2015 Stats
18 GS, 5-5, 2.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 109.2 IP, 84 H, 35 BB, 101 K
Stock Up: CL Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
8 of 16
Weekly Stats
2 G, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 2 IP, 4 K, 2-of-2 SV
Overview
Cincinnati's Chapman might be the most dominant closer in baseball, but San Diego's Craig Kimbrel isn't too far behind his left-handed counterpart.
While his numbers on the season pale in comparison to the 1.43 ERA he pitched to over parts of five seasons in Atlanta, Kimbrel, with his two saves last week, has now converted 17 consecutive save opportunities, a stretch that's seen him pitch to a 1.59 ERA while striking out 35 batters in 22.2 innings.
He may not quite be back to the Kimbrel of old, but he's darn close.
2015 Stats
37 G, 1-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 35.1 IP, 29 H, 14 BB, 52 K, 24-of-26 SV
Stock Up: SP Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
9 of 16
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K
Overview
Perhaps a testament to his mental fortitude, Mike Leake hasn't let trade rumors get in his head. He delivered his third consecutive quality start for Cincinnati in the team's first post-All-Star break action, tossing six innings of one-run ball against Cleveland to pick up his seventh win of the season.
"It is more likely that I'll be traded than stay," Leake told Fox Sports' Jon Morosi. "It (stinks) that we've had the season we did but if I am traded, I'm eager to pitch for a winner."
He may not be a star like Cueto, but Leake is the kind of reliable, innings-eating arm that contenders can't get enough of down the stretch, and that makes him more valuable than your typical mid-rotation starter.
2015 Stats
19 GS, 7-5, 3.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 120.2 IP, 115 H, 33 BB, 81 K
Stock Down: CL Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
10 of 16
Weekly Stats
2 G, 0-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2 IP, 3 H, ER, 1 K, 1-for-1 SV
Overview
Jonathan Papelbon reiterated how anxious he is to get out of Philadelphia during the All-Star break, making already-difficult trade negotiations between Philadelphia and potentially interested clubs that much harder.
That he wasn't at the top of his game coming out of the break doesn't help his trade value, either, though he did bounce back to convert his 15th save of the year a day after serving up a solo home run to Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto in a non-save situation.
2015 Stats
34 G, 1-1, 1.77 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 35.2 IP, 29 H, 7 BB, 36 K, 15-of-15 SV
Stock Down: SP Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox
11 of 16
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 0-1, 5.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Overview
Some time off seems to have killed the momentum that Jeff Samardzija had been building up, as he was mediocre at best against Kansas City last Friday, allowing four earned runs over seven innings of work, serving up a pair of home runs in the process.
Expectations were high for Samardzija coming out of the All-Star break given his two dominant performances preceding the Midsummer Classic (16.2 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 1 ER). After looking like an ace, the question as to exactly where he slots in a team's rotation has crept back into the conversation.
That said, one start isn't going to be enough to dissuade teams from trying to acquire him. But if Chicago had been marketing him as a legitimate front-line starter, the team is going to have to rethink its sales pitch.
2015 Stats
19 GS, 6-6, 4.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 132.1 IP, 137 H, 26 BB, 105 K
Stock Even: SS Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers
12 of 16
Weekly Stats
3 G, 4-for-12 (.333), K, 1-of-1 SB
Overview
Not even the All-Star break could cool off Jean Segura's bat, which has been on fire since the calendars flipped to July, though he continues to pile up the base hits and nothing else, as it's been over a month since he legged out an extra-base knock.
While his monthly average dropped a bit after a 4-for-12 performance last week, Segura is still hitting .403 on the month (21-for-52), one of five players with a July batting average above .400.
But his free-swinging approach hasn't impressed one potential suitor, with CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman hearing the New York Mets aren't big fans of the 25-year-old and, presumably, aren't sold that he's an upgrade over their in-house options.
2015 Stats
76 GP, .276/.305/.346, 12 XBH (3 HR), 24 RBI, 9 BB, 44 K, 13-of-16 SB
Stock Down: SP James Shields, San Diego Padres
13 of 16
Weekly Stats
1 GS, 1-0, 1.80 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Overview
I'm in agreement with the San Diego Union-Tribune's Jeff Sanders, who believes that trading James Shields would be a bad idea for the Padres, as it would send a mixed message to the next wave of free agents. But that hasn't stopped San Diego from shopping him around.
He didn't give the Padres any reason to stop calling around last week, laboring through five innings against Colorado in Petco Park, which on most occasions this season has been the one place where he's looked worth every penny of the four-year, $73 million deal he signed over the winter.
If Shields' performance wasn't enough to scare off would-be suitors, the $65 million he's due through 2018 (including a $2 million buyout of a $16 million team option for 2019) might be. That's why ESPN's Buster Olney said the Padres are expected to pick up a sizable portion of that money to make a deal.
2015 Stats
19 GS, 6-6, 4.08 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, 132.1 IP, 137 H, 26 BB, 105 K
Stock Even: SS Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
14 of 16
Weekly Stats
2 G, 3-for-5 (.600), HR, RBI, 3 BB
Overview
Troy Tulowitzki could write a book on how to deal with never-ending trade rumors, as Colorado's shortstop continues to produce despite a somewhat uncertain future.
"Right now, I’m still a Rockie," Tulowitzki told the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin. "I've dealt with it for a couple years now. I'm still in a Rockies uniform. It is what it is. If they decide to do something, that’s on them. My job is just to be a player."
While he only played two games last week, Tulowitzki was able to extend his streak of reaching base safely to 40 games, the fourth-longest streak in franchise history.
2015 Stats
81 GP, .318/.361/.492, 30 XBH (11 HR), 50 RBI, 22 BB, 66 K
Stock Even: OF Justin Upton, San Diego Padres
15 of 16
Weekly Stats
2 G, 1-for-6 (.167), RBI, BB, K
Overview
The good news for Justin Upton is that he put an end to his 11-game homerless streak, taking Colorado's Rafael Betancourt deep in the bottom of the eighth in San Diego's 4-2 victory over the Rockies last Friday.
The bad news for Upton is that it was his only hit of the series, extending the funk he's been in for well over a month. Since June 1, Upton is now hitting .175 (24-for-137), a five-point drop from where things stood heading into the All-Star break.
To make matters worse, Upton left Sunday's game in the fifth inning with a sore left oblique.
While the Padres said it was a precautionary move made because of inclement weather—the game was called in the top of the fifth inning, the first rainout at Petco Park since 2006, per ESPN.com—it's the kind of injury that could potentially impact a player for weeks, if not months.
Teams with interest in Upton are going to want to see him play again before coming to an agreement on any deal.
2015 Stats
89 GP, .252/.331/.426, 26 XBH (15 HR), 49 RBI, 38 BB, 96 K, 17-of-18 SB
Stock Even: IF/OF Ben Zobrist, Oakland Athletics
16 of 16
Weekly Stats
3 G, 2-for-10 (.200), 2B, RBI, 2 BB
Overview
While much is made of his versatility in the field, Ben Zobrist's knack for getting on base, whether it be via a base hit or a walk, is something nearly every contender could use in their lineup. It's a testament to the fact that even when the hits aren't dropping, he can still be productive.
His .346 on-base percentage might not be an eye-popping number, but it's still high enough for Zobrist to crack the American League's top 25 among players with at least 240 plate appearances on the year.
Zobrist remains the only player capable of filling multiple holes on the market, and that makes him an incredibly valuable trade chip for Oakland to play.
2015 Stats
61 GP, .258/.346/.423, 24 XBH (5 HR), 32 RBI, 30 BB, 22 K
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through July 19. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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