MLB Rumors: Analyzing Trade Buzz on Johnny Cueto, Marcus Stroman and More

The trade deadline is rapidly approaching in MLB, leaving teams little time to decide whether they're going to be buyers, sellers or remain neutral on July 31.

The addition of the second wild-card team has only incentivized more teams to try to add that one piece who will get them into the playoffs.

Compared to the Jon Lester and David Price trades last year, the 2015 deadline might be a bit of a letdown. But plenty of teams will be active over the next two weeks. Here are a few stories to follow between now and the end of the month.

Houston Astros Set Sights on Johnny Cueto

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Johnny Cueto is one of the most talented starting pitchers on the trade market, and the Cincinnati Reds' continued struggles only increase the chances he moves before the deadline. The Reds will have no shortage of suitors for Cueto's services, so it will be important they secure the best deal possible.

CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported the Houston Astros could look to acquire Cueto in an attempt to close the half-game gap on the Los Angeles Angels. Heyman added the caveat "there's no evidence the Reds have signaled that Cueto is on the block yet," but the expectation is the 29-year-old will have a new home.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Astros' playoff odds sit at 63.7 percent at the All-Star break, while their World Series odds are at 7.0 percent, both of which are fourth-highest in the American League.

General manager Jeff Luhnow declined to specify which positions he hopes to strengthen before the deadline but did state he's keeping his options open.

"We'll know more toward the end of July than we do right now whether or not our bats are able to come back," Luhnow said, per Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. "But we're continuing [to look at] everything: bullpen, starting rotation, offense."

Pitching isn't a glaring weakness, but you can understand why the organization would covet Cueto. The Astros starters rank 11th in FIP (3.70), 12th in xFIP (3.70) and 13th in SIERA (3.83).

Here's a look at how Cueto compares to the top half of Houston's rotation:

	W-L	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
Dallas Keuchel	11-4	2.23	7.47	2.23	2.82	2.74	2.78
Lance McCullers	4-3	2.52	9.93	3.36	2.58	3.32	3.28
Collin McHugh	9-5	4.50	7.18	2.21	4.00	3.91	3.83
Johnny Cueto	6-6	2.73	8.57	1.67	3.06	3.18	3.13

Keuchel would remain the ace of the staff, but Cueto would make for a fantastic No. 2.

You wonder what the Astros would have to give up in order to acquire Cueto. Cincinnati's asking price will be steep, but there's no way Houston would part with a franchise building block like Jose Altuve, George Springer or Carlos Correa. Would Mark Appel be off-limits as well? Would the Reds even want him at this point?

The Astros' farm system has gotten weaker as more prospects hit the major leagues, but Houston has enough talent in the lower leagues to make Cincinnati an enticing offer.

Toronto Blue Jays Won't Include Marcus Stroman in Potential Trade

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Speaking of Cueto, Baseball Prospectus' Rian Watt assumed the role of Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos and attempted to formulate a deal that would send Cueto north of the border. Included in Watt's hypothetical trade were Marcus Stroman, Anthony Alford and A.J. Jimenez.

According to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, you can eliminate one-third of that package from the discussion:

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The thing most likely to keep it rolling, of course, is better pitching, and the Blue Jays would love to add a couple of starters before the deadline hits. Easier said than done, when word is they’re being regularly asked for Marcus Stroman in return by potential trade partners, even for rentals.

That ain’t happening.

While the starters the Blue Jays are most often linked to are the usual rental suspects – Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake – the trade history of GM Alex Anthopoulos suggests he’s more likely to use his prospects on a pitcher who comes with more contractual control in return.

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Barry Davis of Sportsnet tweeted earlier in the month that he considered the 24-year-old right-hander unavailable to other teams:

Even though Stroman will likely miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL, you can understand why he'd be a great asset to acquire. He went 11-6 last year with a 3.65 earned run average. His 2.84 FIP is a better indicator as to his true performance. And that was after Stroman shot up through the Blue Jays' system, performing well at just about every level.

Keeping all of that in mind, you can just as easily understand why Toronto wouldn't want to trade one of its best young pitchers for a high-priced veteran who might only last a few months with the team.

Not to mention, Stroman might be returning earlier than expected. He said in an interview with Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star that he believes September is a realistic time for him to resume full-time duties:

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Once the doctors told me, depending on how you progress, there's a chance, I know my work ethic and I know I'm going to put in more work and do whatever is possible and more than anybody out there to make sure that I'm back. It's just going to be a matter if I'm ready. The work's going to be put in and there's a good chance. It just depends on my knee. I can't foresee how my knee's going to feel in a couple of months, but the way I'm progressing I'm hoping to be back by September. If I'm ready to throw...my body feels great. If I'm ready to throw, I'd hope that, I mean I think we're going to be in a playoff race, so I hope I would be here.

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Getting a guy like Cueto or Jeff Samardzija could potentially be the key to getting the Blue Jays into the playoffs, but it would be a major risk. And that risk isn't worth trading a promising pitcher like Stroman.

New York Mets Unlikely to Add Outfielder before Deadline

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

It's no secret the New York Mets have struggled mightily at the plate. They're 28th in runs (310), last in batting average (.233), 26th in on-base percentage (.298) and 29th in slugging (.363).

Despite those anemic numbers, New York is just two games back of the Washington Nationals in the National League East and a game back in the wild-card race.

Mets are likely hoping the front office has some move in the works that will help—even slightly—turn things around. ESPN.com's Adam Rubin shot down that idea, at least in part:

Carlos Gomez has one year left on his deal beyond 2015, while Justin Upton will be a free agent this offseason. The right offer could probably pry one of those two from their current homes, but it would have to be an expensive offer.

Rubin wrote on Thursday the team is likely to target another position:

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Despite David Wright's return dragging along, acquiring a straight third baseman doesn't make a ton of sense, since it basically commits Wilmer Flores returning to shortstop and complicates things once Wright is back. Instead, look for something more along the lines of a versatile player (a Ben Zobrist type), shortstop or bench help. And don't count on a big splash, such as Troy Tulowitzki or Starlin Castro. After all, the Mets are not parting with any of their core young starting pitchers. Also, don’t look for an outfielder such as Justin Upton. The Mets do not feel it is a wise use of resources to use their chips on an outfield rental.

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On one hand, you can understand why the Mets wouldn't want to trade away one of their talented young pitchers. New York's pitching staff could be dominant for years to come.

Then again, the Mets haven't made the playoffs since 2006. Fans would probably accept losing Steven Matz or Noah Syndergaard if it meant adding the kind of player who will help end that postseason drought.

Ask Kansas City Royals fans if they'd like to have the James Shields trade never happen. The Royals were raked over the coals for trading Wil Myers in the days and weeks after that deal, but Kansas City is having the last laugh.

If Mets management wants to truly show it's tired of missing out on October baseball, then it might need to roll the dice on a major move this year.

Note: Stats are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.