Ja'Marr Chase and Fantasy Football 2025 Safest Players to Draft No. 1

Fantasy football draft rooms are filling ahead of the 2025 NFL season.

If you happen to find yourself at the front of the line for your respective draft, congratulations—you have access to the singularly brightest star in the fantasy football universe. Or the player you feel best fits that description, at least.

What you also have, though, is the longest wait in your league before you make your second selection. So, you better do everything you can to maximize the value of that No. 1 pick.

This isn't the point at which you'll want to showcase your willingness to take risks or try to prove how smart you are by going against the grain. Safety is your friend in this spot, since botching this pick could sink your season before it ever even starts.

With that in mind, let's spotlight the three safest players to target with the first overall pick.

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

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Receivers are typically more reliable than running backs in fantasy, and Chase stands out even among the elite tier of pass-catchers.

Save for a hint of injury trouble in his past (12 games played in 2022), he's basically been a guaranteed great. The next time he has fewer than 81 catches, 1,046 receiving yards or seven touchdowns would be the first.

And last season proved there's more than safety here. There's also the highest of high-end potential, as he led the entire league in...well, every relevant receiving category: 127 catches, 175 targets, 1,708 receiving yards and 17 touchdown grabs.

He's the primary target of perhaps the league's best passer (Joe Burrow) in an offense that loves to air it out (652 pass attempts last season, second-most in the NFL). While you can never assume anything in this league, it feels like it would take something catastrophic to keep Chase from being at least a top-three performer at his position.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

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Remember when the Falcons were frustratingly hesitant to fully unleash Robinson as a rookie? This almost feels impossible now, but back in 2023, he only handled 28 more carries than Tyler Allgeier.

Thankfully, Atlanta corrected its carry distribution last season. Allgeier still factors into the equation, but this running back obviously belongs to Robinson now, as he more than doubled up Allgeier in touches during the 2024 campaign (365 to 150).

As a 23-year-old, Robinson perhaps still has some growth potential left in him, although further role expansion would be tricky. There are only so many ways in which one can improve upon 1,887 scrimmage yards and 15 scores.

Fantasy managers who take Robinson don't necessarily need more numbers, though. A repeat of last season would work just fine. Just three non-quarterbacks and only eight players overall topped Robinson's 341.7 PPR points, per ESPN.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

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This is the trickiest part of this exercise, since every candidate for this spot carries risk.

Saquon Barkley's 2024 effort suggests he belongs here, but there are reasons to worry about any aftereffects from his heavy usage last season (482 touches including the playoffs). Jahmyr Gibbs has an argument, but David Montgomery is still around and playcaller Ben Johnson is not. CeeDee Lamb is somewhere in the mix, but he's only had one double-digit touchdown season, and he could see fewer targets with George Pickens added to the receiver room.

Jefferson has his own worries, by the way, mainly connected to the unproven nature of quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The 10th pick of the 2024 draft has yet to throw an NFL pass after his would-be rookie season was erased by a knee injury.

That said, Minnesota thought enough of McCarthy to let Sam Darnold exit after his Pro Bowl effort in 2024. And if the Vikings are right about McCarthy, then Jefferson should be primed for another monster season. He has cracked 1,400 receiving yards in four of his five NFL seasons (1,074 in 10 games during the other) and tallied 10 touchdown grabs in two of the last four.