The Yankees' Growing Aaron Boone Problem

Sudden second-half swoons have been a hallmark of the New York Yankees' Aaron Boone era, so it shouldn't be news that one is happening right now.

What is newsworthy is how ugly this one has been. At a time when the Yankees should be rolling after cleaning up at the trade deadline, they're instead reeling from:

• An 18-29 record since June 13
• A five-game losing streak marked by three bullpen meltdowns
• Aaron Judge's placement on the IL with an elbow injury
• Frequent errors by Gold Glove shortstop Anthony Volpe
• Baserunning gaffes by Austin Wells and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
• A quick demotion for one of their deadline prizes

This ongoing calamity has already dropped the reigning American League champs from first to third place in the AL East. They are also third in the wild card standings, with the Texas Rangers lurking 0.5 games out.

Someone has to be in the crosshairs in times like these, and it isn't just the Yankees fans who have trained their sights on Boone. Even a franchise legend less-than-subtly pointed a finger at the eighth-year skipper.

"If any one of us made a mistake, we would be sitting our butt right on the bench," three-time AL MVP Alex Rodriguez said after the Yankees' 2-0 loss to the Miami Marlins on Saturday. "I see mistake after mistake, and there's no consequences."

It's True Aaron Boone Deserves Blame

If there's a defense against the recent fury towards Boone, it concerns how demands for accountability don't need to happen in the public eye.

Take it from Lance Lynn, who played under Boone in 2018. As he explained on Foul Territory on Monday, the manager is almost certainly saying what needs to be said behind closed doors in order to keep the pressure cooker that is the New York media landscape from blowing containment:

These remarks track with Boone's reputation. Nobody who's played for him has ever had anything bad to say, including the guy who matters most.

"He has been there for us in good times and bad times," Judge said of Boone in 2023. "The guy shows up and supports his players. You can probably tell by the amount of times he's been thrown out of games that he always has our back."

And yet, this is the fourth year in a row that the Yankees have gotten off to a terrific start under Boone, only to take on water over time. To pick up where B/R's Kerry Miller left off on July 22:

2022: 61-23, then 38-40
2023: 48-38, then 34-42
2024: 49-21, then 45-47
2025: 42-25, now 18-29

There is still ostensibly a chance of the 2025 Yankees making like the 2024 Yankees and powering through to the World Series, but the preconceived narrative that this year's team would be better without Juan Soto has already proven to be a myth.

The Yankees were always going to need a lot to go right after losing a guy who gave them a .989 OPS, 41 home runs and 7.9 rWAR in 2024. All of their new additions would have to pan out, and the more complete style of play that was promised would have to actually come to fruition.

Neither is happening. The Yankees have hit on Max Fried and Cody Bellinger, but not on Paul Goldschmidt or Devin Williams. And even setting aside individual culprits such as Volpe, Wells and Chisholm, the fact is that the Yankees are underwater with both their baserunning and defensive value.

That's why calling for Boone's head is so tempting, especially given recent examples of firing the manager working to perfection. To wit, it was only three years ago that the Philadelphia Phillies axed Joe Girardi and went to the World Series under Rob Thomson.

Boone is Just the Tip of the Iceberg of Yankees Woes

Rightly or wrongly, however, calling for Boone's firing is likely pointless. The Yankees only just extended his contract through 2027 in February, so him being shown the door just six months later probably isn't happening.

Besides, the 52-year-old is merely a heat shield for his bosses, and even the target on his back shouldn't keep everyone from also training their sights on them.

General manager Brian Cashman is into his fourth decade in charge of the Yankees' front office, and nobody can say he hasn't been a steady hand on the wheel. Yet it's only getting harder to discern if he brings anything innovative to the table, particularly where player development is concerned.

It doesn't help Cashman that consistent winning results in low draft picks and small bonus pools. But the Los Angeles Dodgers have faced the same hurdle for over a decade, yet their farm system consistently outperforms the Yankees'.

Besides, there's no excuse for how fundamentally unsound the Yankees have become.

It was what killed them in the World Series last year, and the problem simply goes deeper than Boone. The Yankees reportedly don't stress fundamentals in their minor league system, and it hasn't merely shown in the Volpe's wonky defense and Wells' baserunning mistake. After five seasons as a professional, Jasson Domínguez shouldn't still be what Boone called a "work in progress" in left field.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have also supplanted the Yankees as the biggest spender in MLB. And it's not close, as Spotrac projects L.A.'s luxury-tax bill to come in about $200 million higher than the Yankees'.

None of this is lost on owner Hal Steinbrenner, though his response to a question about the Dodgers in January was laughable:

"It's difficult for most of us owners to be able to do the kind of things that they're doing. We'll see if it pays off. They still have to have a season relatively injury-free for it to work out for them, and it's a long season, as you know, and once you get to the postseason, anything can happen. We've seen that time and time again. So we'll see who's there at the end and if they're the ones."

The latter half of this quote is actually aging well, but the notion that the Yankees are unable to spend like the Dodgers still rings hollow.

According to Forbes, there was only a $24 million revenue gap between the two clubs last year. Though they have gamed the system with deferred money, the straightforward explanation for the spending gap is that the Dodgers are simply more willing to reinvest revenue into payroll.

This year may end up being the ultimate indictment of Steinbrenner's approach to spending. Whereas he should have pushed the pedal to the metal after last year's World Series run, he let Soto escape to the New York Mets and ultimately greenlit a lower payroll than the one the club opened with last year.

Basically, the Yankees are guilty of putting Boone in a position where he had to do more with less. Even if they do make the shocking decision to fire him, whoever takes his place would get the same raw deal.

The Yankees Aren't Out of It Yet, But...

Even with all this said, here's how FanGraphs breaks down the Yankees' playoff odds:

• Make Playoffs: 78.9 percent
• Win AL East: 13.3 percent
• Win AL Pennant: 14.9 percent
• Win World Series: 7.1 percent

It may sound hard to believe, but three of these four figures (odds to win the AL East being the exception) are higher today than they were on Opening Day.

This is encouraging, and not entirely out of line with reality. The Yankees did get Judge back off the IL on Tuesday, after all, and the coming returns of Fernando Cruz and Jonathan Loáisiga can only help what is still a beleagured bullpen.

The question, of course, is whether Boone needs to press a magic button for everything to fall into place.

He actually did change his tone a bit after another brutal loss on Tuesday, but we still don't really know if he has the kind of "No more Mr. Nice Guy!" mode that the Yankees seem to need. If Cashman and Steinbrenner conclude that this is the reason that the Yankees are five wins short of where they should be, maybe they will fire Boone after all.

For the meantime, the World Series or bust energy that typically emanates from Yankee-dom barely seems to be there right now.

Losing never makes any fanbase happy, but you don't even need to be part of the scene to feel the misery coming from Yankees fans on social media these days. And who can blame them? They're into Year 16 of being the Charlie Brown to Steinbrenner's Lucy, and their plight is only getting more sympathetic by the year.

Yankees fans have every right to want what the franchise used to be and indeed still should be. And as such, they have every right to be angry at everyone in charge.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.