Fantasy Football’s Biggest Boom or Bust Players in 2025

Risk.

It’s a big part of fantasy football. As much as we wish it wasn’t. While we’d all like it if players didn’t carry any in fantasy, the fact is that everyone brings at least some to the table—some far more than others. Tolerance for risk (or the lack of it) can be one of the most powerful motivating factors for fantasy drafters.

Of course, risk isn’t the only factor to consider when deciding whether or not to pull the trigger on a player. There’s also reward—or at least the potential for it. And the more that potential for reward, the more risk many fantasy managers are willing to tolerate.

Now, building a roster consisting completely of so-called “boom/bust” players probably isn’t wise—there’s a difference between tolerance for risk and skipping through a minefield swinging a shovel like a lunatic. But fantasy managers have to be willing to roll the dice a little—boring fantasy teams are usually mediocre fantasy teams.

All the players listed here are off the board on average before the end of Round 5. Most are gone by the end of Round 3. All have the potential to be big-time fantasy difference-makers in 2025.

All also have the potential to be the sort of blown picks that can blow a season to smithereens.

QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Derik Hamilton

ADP: QB3, 31st Overall

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was a revelation last season—for NFL fans and fantasy managers alike. Drafted as a fringe QB1 in fantasy leagues, Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns, added almost 900 more yards and six scores on the ground and finished fifth in fantasy points at his position.

While addressing the media, Daniels said he’s ready to take his game to the next level in 2025.

"It's being more comfortable in the offense," Daniels said. "I understand what Kliff is calling and what we want to accomplish as an offense. I have different tools in my tool belt to get to different protections, to get to different runs versus certain looks."

Daniels upside is undeniable. Among NFL quarterbacks, only Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens had more rushing yards among quarterbacks a season ago. It’s not a huge reach to imagine Daniels flirting with (or even surpassing) 1,000 yards on the ground this season. The Commanders added veteran wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. in an offseason trade.

If Daniels takes a step forward as a passer with a season of NFL experience under his belt, he could challenge for the No. 1 overall spot at his position.

But Daniels carries a third-round price tag, which makes Daniels an inherently risky draft pick. He’ll need at least some improvement just to justify that price tag. Washington’s top wideout (Terry McLaurin) is engaged in a contract impasse with the team and has requested a trade. Running quarterbacks can be more prone to injury. And while it was a great season, we have just one season of Daniels to base fantasy assessments on.

The 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year could be huge in 2025. But he’s not a pick for the faint of heart.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

ADP: RB4, 9th Overall

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is in a better place health-wise than he was a year ago, when Achilles tendinitis and a PCL injury limited the 29-year-old to just four games. But while talking to reporters, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said the team is taking no chances with their star tailback—whether he likes it or not.

"This has been part of the plan," Shanahan said. "Christian gets frustrated with it. He wants to be out there; he wants to do everything. But Christian also is very smart and knows what the deal is and knows that we do need to protect him from himself. So, he's on board with it all. But I know he is feeling good and when he feels good, he doesn't like days off, but he understands why he's got (to do it)."

Two years ago, McCaffrey had over 2,000 total yards and wasn’t just the top running back in fantasy—he destroyed every other player at the position, finishing with over 100 more PPR points than the No. 2 back. He led all NFC backs in PPR fantasy points in 2022. In 2019, McCaffrey was again the highest scoring back—this time by over 150 PPR points.

But McCaffrey also has an extensive injury history. Three times, he has missed 10 or more games—in 2020, 2021 and 2024.

McCaffrey is the king of boom/bust fantasy picks. If he can stay on the field all season, he’s capable of being the No. 1 running back overall by a staggering margin. But if he gets hurt, McCaffrey tends to miss most of the season.

And those extended absences are season-killers.

RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Nick Wass

ADP: RB6, 12th Overall

Generally speaking, in the NFL running backs begin to decline around the age of 28. The wear and tear on their bodies starts to pile up, and the more candles that start piling up on their birthday cake, the higher the odds their production will drop.

Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens is not most running backs.

Despite the fact that Henry turned 31 in January, Henry had one of the better seasons of his storied career in 2024—he carried the ball 325 times for 1,921 yards (a career-best 5.9 yards per carry), tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns and finished third in PPR points among running backs. Per PFF, Henry was the only back in the league who ranked in the top-five in both yards before contact and yards after contact.

Frank Ammirante of Fantasy Pros believes Henry could actually be even better in 2025.

“Every year, the fantasy community (including myself) seems to underrate Derrick Henry, but I’m not making that mistake this year. This is a generational talent in an ideal scenario, playing in an elite offense that should provide him with 20-touchdown upside. Playing next to Lamar Jackson makes it easier to put up an efficient season. Expect to see more breakaway runs from Henry, especially with the Ravens playing with a lead late in the game. Don’t be surprised if Henry rushes for 2,000 yards.”

However, Henry is also an aging running back with a lot of wear on the proverbial tires—a whopping 2,355 carries. He’s been most durable over his career, but as the old saying goes, Father Time is undefeated. The age cliff comes for everyone at some point.

Even the King.

WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Derik Hamilton

ADP: WR5, 8th Overall

Wide receiver Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams has gone from fifth-round pick to NFL star in just two seasons. As a rookie, Nacua posted historic numbers for a first-year player—105 catches for 1,486 yards. In 2024, Nacua played in just 11 games, but his receiving yards per game were even better than his inaugural campaign.

Matthew Freedman of a Fantasy Life wrote that Nacua has the potential to challenge to be the No. 1 overall receiver in fantasy football this year.

“In yardage accumulation, what Nacua has done as a receiver on a per-game basis in his first two NFL seasons (88.4) has been on par with what we saw out of Ja'Marr Chase (86.2) and Justin Jefferson (91.4) in their first couple years. Chase and Jefferson are now going off the board as the top two WRs in fantasy leagues. In his third season, Jefferson had an NFL-high 128 receptions and 1,809 yards receiving. In his fourth season, Chase had a league-best 127 receptions and 1,708 yards receiving. And like both of them, Nacua has the ability to line up all over the formation and win at multiple levels.”

But…(well you knew it was coming)

Nacua has yet to have a big season where touchdowns are concerned—six in 2023 and then just three last season. Matthew Stafford is a 37-year-old quarterback with a bad back who isn’t practicing—and starting to freak some people out. And the Rams added a wide receiver this year in Davante Adams who has been targeted at least 140 times in five straight seasons.

Of the wideouts being selected in Round 1 (on average), Nacua is the riskiest bet.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Alex Gallardo

ADP: WR17, 36th Overall

Entering the NFL, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was widely regarded as a can’t-miss superstar in the making. The former Ohio State star was regarded by some as the top overall prospect in the 2024 draft.

However, as Dalton Del Don pointed out at Yahoo, Harrison was major disappointment after coming off fantasy draft boards in the middle of Round 2, finishing outside the top-40 among wide receivers in PPR points per game.

“Harrison undoubtedly deserves some of the blame, as he might’ve been the worst receiver in the league when it came to contested catches. He also forced just one missed tackle during 62 receptions. His rookie season certainly wasn't bad, but Harrison unquestionably failed to live up to his lofty expectations.

However, usage and Kyler Murray were also to blame. Harrison ranked sixth in air yards but just 37th in target share (22.2%). He ranked 58th in yards per route run among wideouts, although that came while ranking 64th in catchable target rate. Despite being among the leaders in end-zone targets, Harrison was still just the WR32 in expected fantasy points per game. Murray delivered just a 51% catchable ball rate on throws 20+ air yards without pressure, which ranked 24th out of 33 qualified QBs (although the good news is Murray targeted Harrison on a whopping 45.9% of those attempts).”

That’s quite a few ugly numbers. But there are reasons for optimism that a rebound could be coming. Harrison showed up for camp in great shape, and the Arizona coaching staff has raved about his performance on the practice field. Harrison and Murray spent time together working on their chemistry in the offseason. And Harrison’s talent isn’t in question—he didn’t forget how to play football when he entered the NFL.

It could be that Harrison’s star turn was just delayed by a year. But considering what happened in 2024, it’s far from guaranteed.

TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

ADP: TE4, 52nd Overall

Sam LaPorta’s NFL career has been a tale of two seasons.

In the first, LaPorta was transcendent. As a rookie in 2023, LaPorta caught 86 of 120 targets for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. No tight end had more PPR fantasy points. A star was born.

However, despite missing just one game in 2024m LaPorta’s numbers plummeted across the board. He was targeted 37 fewer times. Caught just 60 passes. His receiving yards and touchdowns both took a hit. And LaPorta finished the year a so-so ninth at his position in PPR points per game.

Per ESPN’s Mike Clay, LaPorta picked things up over the season’s second-half though—and that could mean a return to fantasy dominance in 2025.

“After pacing all tight ends in fantasy points as a rookie in 2023, Sam LaPorta fell to eighth in 2024. His receiving line dipped across the board (from 86-889-10 on 121 targets to 60-726-7 on 84 targets), though it's notable that he did get back on track to some extent after a slow start. After averaging 2.8 targets (11% team share) and 7.1 fantasy PPG during his first six games, LaPorta leapt to 6.7 targets (21% share) and 13.6 fantasy PPG in his final 11 (including the playoffs). Those numbers are near identical to his rookie season and closer to what we should expect moving forward.”

The problem is that the Lions have a crowded offense—especially with Jameson Williams ascending and a healthy David Montgomery back. Jared Goff isn’t afraid to spread the ball around. The man who coordinated last year’s buzzsaw of an offense (Ben Johnson) is now the head coach of the Chicago Bears. And after scoring over 33 points per game last year, the Lions are likely headed for at least some offensive regression in 2025.

We have seen what LaPorta is capable of. But his seven touchdowns last year were the only thing that kept him inside the top-10 at his position. If LaPorta’s target and reception numbers this season are similar to last year’s and his touchdowns drop, fantasy managers who draft him inside the top-five at his position could be left holding the bag.