Over-Under Win Predictions For Every NFL Team In 2025

Now that NFL rosters have taken the shape they’ll generally have throughout the 2025 campaign and training camps getting underway, this is a good opportunity to start speculating on future bets before camp and preseason action starts to shift odds in various directions.

After all, the earlier the better in terms of value. 

Let's look at DraftKings’ team-by-team win totals for 2025, hone in on each team's line that is closest to even odds, and predict whether that squad wins more (over) or fewer (under) games than that number in the upcoming campaign. 

Strength of schedule information for 2024 via ESPN’s Power Index, for 2025 via Sharp Football Analysis. Adjusted Games Lost due to injury courtesy of FTN.

Arizona Cardinals: Over 8.5 Wins (-115)

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

The Cardinals doubled their win total from four in 2023 to eight in 2024. Now, only a modest improvement puts them over the top in this scenario. 

Considering Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. should be expected to take another step forward in their second season together, it's hard not to buy into that over. 

The defense also got better on paper via both free agency and the draft, and keep in mind they had one of the toughest schedules in the league last year. That should become easier in 2025, especially if a team that ranked seventh in adjusted games lost to injury can have better luck in that department. 

The stars are aligned for a run at double-digit wins for the Cards in an increasingly wide-open division this year.

Atlanta Falcons: Over 7.5 Wins (-140)

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

The Falcons managed to win eight games despite a mess at quarterback and defensive issues for much of the 2024 season. 

Now, there's a chance they've fixed those problems with second-year top-10 pick Michael Penix Jr. installed at quarterback and veterans Leonard Floyd and Morgan Fox joining rookie first-round picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the defensive front seven. 

The jury's still out on Penix, but he did flash in limited action as a rookie and is extremely well-supported by one of the best skill-position units in the NFL. 

This team should improve on both sides of the ball, and it's projected to have one of the easiest schedules in the league while working in one of its softest divisions.

If the Falcons can stay healthy again and Penix doesn't totally bomb, they will be within a game of .500 if not better in 2025.

I think they win the NFC South. 

Baltimore Ravens: Under 11.5 Wins (-105)

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

The Ravens have won at least 12 games in each of the last two seasons, but they swept the underperforming Bengals in each of those campaigns. Cincinnati is better than that, and the Ravens could be in for a tougher ride in general in 2025. 

Don’t get me wrong, I still think this is a Super Bowl contender. But Baltimore bled some more talent and experience on defense this offseason, and the schedule doesn’t ease up. 

Plus, the Ravens were the healthiest team in the league in terms of adjusted games lost in 2024, and there's always some luck involved there. If the football gods or the law of averages isn't on their side this time, it will be very hard to put up another dozen-plus-win campaign in the mighty AFC. 

Throw in that fact that Derrick Henry is now 31 years old and could fall off a cliff at any moment and I'm leaning in the direction of 10 or 11 wins for the 2025 Ravens.

Buffalo Bills: Under 12.5 Wins (-150)

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Similar tune here. The Bills lost key veterans on both sides of the ball this offseason, and the rest of that division could catch up quite a bit if the Dolphins’ core can stay healthy and the ascending Patriots can remain on their current trajectory. 

I actually think the Pats are going to make waves, while the Bengals and Texans also bounce back outside of the division. And don't count out the Jets, who have the talent to surprise within the AFC East. 

Like the Ravens, the Bills had good injury luck relative to the rest of the league in 2024. Their schedule is supposed to be easier, but I also wonder how the team will react to increasing pressure associated with the fact that they keep failing to get over the top in the AFC. 

Dating back to 2019, the Bills have won 11 or fewer games in odd-numbered years and 13 or more games in even-numbered years. That trend continues in 2025.

Carolina Panthers: Under 6.5 Wins (+110)

AP Photo/Chris Carlson

The Panthers improved on a two-win 2023 season with five wins in Dave Canales' first campaign as head coach, with 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young making decent strides at quarterback for a team that won two of its last three games. 

Can they build on that with at least two more wins in 2025? 

The soft NFC South and a fairly easy schedule could help with that, as should the addition of first-round rookie 

Tetairoa McMillan has joined Young's receiving corps. The group was ravaged by injuries in 2024 and could have better luck in that area in 2025. 

Everything points to a run toward respectability for a team on the rise, but I still don't fully trust Young and have major concerns about a defense that didn't get blatantly stronger after surrendering a league-high 31.4 points per game in 2024. 

I wouldn't put money on this one in either direction, but I'm leaning 6-11 for the 2025 Panthers. 

Chicago Bears: Under 8.5 Wins (-125)

AP Photo/Erin Hooley

It's been seven years since the Bears last won nine or more games in a season. And while a lot of folks are understandably bullish on Chicago based on the rise of Caleb Williams behind a revamped offensive line and with the help of a blooming, talented defense, it's too much to expect this team to jump from 5-12 to 9-8 or better in one year. 

A lot of that has to do with the fact that the Bears are in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

The NFC North is stacked, with the Lions, Packers and Vikings all expected to contend. Detroit might have the best roster in the NFL, and Green Bay and Minnesota could arguably be in better shape now than they were at the end of 2024. 

Chicago was the third-healthiest team in the NFL last season, which made it easier to ride out a tough schedule. But that sked isn't expected to get any easier in 2025, and we have to leave room for the possibility there will be growing pains as Williams adjusts to a new system and line. 

Cincinnati Bengals: Over 9.5 Wins (-150)

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

It’s been a couple of years since injury luck was really on the Bengals' side.

We don't want to completely fall victim to the gambler's fallacy in believing that ought to change in 2025, but the law of averages should be on the side of a team that is far better than its 18-16 record since the start of 2023. 

The Bengals missed the playoffs despite a plus-38 scoring margin in 2024. What's more, they got their act together and won each of their last five games. This team has been plagued by slow starts to the season, but it gets some relief with the Browns and Jaguars in the first two weeks of their 2025 campaign. 

Are they still flawed? Looks like it. The defense isn't elite and the offensive line could still be problematic despite some tweaks to the guard positions. 

That said, they're much more likely to increase their win total than to post nine or fewer victories for a third year in a row, especially as it appears the rest of the division is no better off than it was a year ago. 

Cleveland Browns: Under 5.5 Wins (-140)

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Speaking of the Browns, it's often hard to gauge a team that won seven games in 2022, 11 in 2023 and then just three in 2024. 

They have a handful of potential starting quarterbacks, none of whom should inspire much confidence based on their resumes and statuses, and it became apparent last year that Myles Garrett alone can't rescue a roster that is lacking pretty much everywhere else. 

Despite a revolving door in the offseason, the Browns don't look any better now than they did when they put up an AFC-low scoring margin of minus-177 in 2024. And they remain in a tough division and conference with what's projected to be the most difficult schedule in the AFC. 

It's extremely unlikely they double their win total in 2025. 

Dallas Cowboys: Over 8.5 Wins (+120)

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Prior to a dud 2024 showing, the Cowboys had won 12 games in three consecutive seasons. This team takes a lot of flak—some of it deserved—for falling short when it matters, but it remains a heck of a lot better than that 7-10 record in 2024. 

We saw that with a 4-1 stretch in the second half of the season, despite the absence of Dak Prescott. 

The quarterback has taken plenty of heat, too, but the team has now given him another quality target in George Pickens. And for what it's worth, he seems to light it up every other season. 

In odd-numbered years since 2019, Prescott has missed just one game while throwing 103 touchdown passes to 30 interceptions for a 103.3 passer rating. Don't forget he was MVP runner-up in 2023. 

It should again be tough sledding for the Cowboys in the strong NFC East, but if they can stay healthy, they should at least put up a winning record again in 2025. 

Denver Broncos: Over 9.5 Wins (-105)

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Considering the Broncos won 10 games with an emerging Bo Nix as the first-round quarterback taking on Sean Payton's system in 2024, it seems strange that the odds are slightly against them maintaining that clip in 2025. 

After all, Nix finished his rookie season strong and a highly ranked defense looks even better following several key offseason additions. 

The tempered expectations in terms of futures might pertain to the risk Nix suffers a sophomore slump a la C.J. Stroud in 2024. Maybe opposing defenses will have him figured out a bit more after a full season, and maybe we'll see some regression from this young team in a challenging division. 

It's worth considering that as a factor, but they were smart to avoid complacency by adding Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw and Jahdae Barron on defense, and I believe in Payton with Nix. 

Ultimately, the Broncos should continue to chase down the Chiefs in the AFC West. In fact, don't be surprised if they win the division in 2025.

Detroit Lions: Over 10.5 Wins (+110)

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Even in the strong NFC North, an over/under below 11 seems awfully low for a team that won 15 games last year and has kept pretty much its entire core together for 2025. 

Sure, the Lions have also been forced to replace both of their coordinators after Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn took jobs with the Bears and Jets, respectively. But new offensive coordinator John Morton goes way back with head coach Dan Campbell and new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard worked under Glenn the last four years. 

The schedule will be tougher on a Lions team that faces increased pressure and has a target on its back, but the talent remains undeniable. Staying healthy will be critical with the margin for error low in that division, but this team isn't suddenly losing seven or more games in 2025. 

This is my best bet thus far in this exercise. 

Green Bay Packers: Over 9.5 Wins (-120)

AP Photo/Matt Ludtke

Elsewhere in the NFC North, Green Bay was also good for 11-plus wins despite the third-toughest schedule in the league based on ESPN's Power Index.

Now, they've finally added a first-round receiver to help Jordan Love take off in his third year as the team's starter. 

Why would we bet on them to go out and lose eight-plus games? 

This and the above tie into our modest take on the Bears, who might be causing bettors and oddsmakers to take pause on the rest of a stacked division. Chicago and Minnesota (due to its quarterback situation) remain bigger wild cards than the Lions and Packers, who ranked in the top eight in scoring offense and defense while posting the fifth-best scoring margin in the NFL in 2025. 

The Packers are at least good for another double-digit-win campaign. 

Houston Texans: Under 9.5 Wins (-120)

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

Following a huge leap to 10 victories as C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans debuted in 2023, the Texans disappointed as the quarterback slumped in 2024. 

And yet the Texans still won 10 games in the weak AFC South. 

On the surface, that would make the over here a no-brainer, especially as Houston had bad injury luck last year. But do consider the talented Jaguars underperformed and lost both of their meetings with the Texans, who also swept a Colts team that should be better as well in 2025. 

Now, the Texans have one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the league, and Stroud will be adjusting to more big changes along an offensive line that let him down as a sophomore and could still be problematic for him in Year 3. 

They might still get back to the double digits and win the division by default, but I could easily see them doing that at 9-8. This one's a toss-up, but I'm leaning negative. 

Indianapolis Colts: Over 7.5 Wins (-110)

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

The Colts, on the other hand, have managed to win at least eight games the last two years despite issues at quarterback and a defense that ranked in the bottom 10 in points allowed in both 2023 and 2024. 

Considering they've at least added Daniel Jones to the mix under center while also drafting Ty Warren as a potential immediate go-to weapon, they could be better positioned to put up a fight within what should be a wide-open division again in 2025. 

The schedule is easier than Houston's and the offense has a chance to be pretty solid with a quality supporting cast for whoever wins the quarterback battle. 

Ergo, another 8-9 or 9-8 finish.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 7.5 Wins (-125)

AP Photo/John Raoux

Yes, I get the feeling the AFC South is going to be a dogfight among three .500-ish teams. But I'm more bullish on the Jaguars winning eight-plus games than I am Indy or Houston hitting the over and under, respectively. 

The Jags were a mess in 2024, but they posted winning records in 2022 and 2023, and there's too much talent for them not to bounce back in 2025. 

Trevor Lawrence still has the ability to deliver, and he could be in a great spot with hyped No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter joining Brian Thomas Jr. in the receiving corps. 

Expect new energy from an overhauled coaching staff and an offense that could do some major damage as the Jags take advantage of a soft schedule to get back into the .500 range in 2025.

Kansas City Chiefs: Under 11.5 Wins (-120)

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

The Chiefs have actually lost five-plus games in two of their last four campaigns, and with the rest of the AFC West catching up, it feels as though an aging and depleted Kansas City team is ripe for a down year. 

This is a team that failed to score more than 30 points in a game last regular season, and one that went 11-0 in one-score games. If they'd won just over half of those games instead, they'd have gone 10-7. 

Now, wins are wins and this team does come alive in big moments. But it's not realistic to expect them to pull off that many close victories again in 2025, and I'm not sure they have the depth or firepower to consistently pull away. 

Patrick Mahomes has thrown an AFC-worst 25 interceptions while ranking below the league median in passer rating since the start of 2023, and his offensive line could again be a liability this year. 

K.C. probably again finds its way into contention, but it could lose six or seven games in 2025.

Las Vegas Raiders: Over 6.5 Wins (-145)

AP Photo/John Locher

How many wins are Pete Carroll, Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty worth? 

Those are the big three additions to a Raiders team that won just four games while struggling on both sides of the ball for Antonio Pierce in 2024.

And while I don’t think they will turn the Raiders into a contender overnight, they should bring a lot more stability and consistency to an offense that already has solid talent in key spots like tight end and left tackle. 

The Raiders also led the AFC in adjusted games lost to injury and went 0-6 in a very tough division. The AFC West is still going to be a challenge, but even a win or two within the division represents an improvement, and there's a decent chance they will have better luck in the health department in 2025. 

This team won two of its last three games in 2024 and should have enough momentum, energy and talent to keep rolling with at least seven total wins in 2025.

Los Angeles Chargers: Under 9.5 Wins (-105)

AP Photo/Denis Poroy

Backed by the league's top-rated scoring defense and with Justin Herbert blooming under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage, the Chargers won 11 games 2024.

But they also faced the league's softest schedule along the way, and the Broncos and Raiders should be much improved in 2025. 

That could make it more difficult for the Bolts to get back into the double-digit-win club this season, especially with opposing teams now having more tape on Harbaugh's offense. 

That unit still arguably lacks a No. 1 receiver and has questions surrounding the offensive backfield and the interior offensive line. Meanwhile, it's worth noting the defense was exposed with poor late-season performances against Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Denver and Houston. 

If that also leaks into 2025, a Los Angeles squad that faces its three tough division rivals out of the gate could be in trouble. 

They will be in the mix, but with a 9-8 record. 

Los Angeles Rams: Under 9.5 Wins (+120)

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

The Rams have found a way to pull 10 wins out of the hat in each of the last two seasons, but that's not necessarily sustainable. 

They do deserve credit for overcoming plenty of injuries and a challenging schedule to sneak into the playoffs with a 5-1 stretch run in 2025, but Matthew Stafford appears as though he's about to fall off a cliff. 

This is a tricky one because that's tough to predict and this is still a veteran team in a wide-open division. I wouldn't bet on it either way, but I don't trust this team on either side of the ball, so I'm going to project a slight drop-off overall.

Miami Dolphins: Under 7.5 Wins (-115)

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

This one is also tough to confidently take a stab at, mainly because both Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are major wild cards.

Don’t be surprised if Tagovailoa puts together a strong healthy season with Hill happily on the receiving end, or if the QB's season were to blow up due to injury or ineffectiveness and causes Hill to spiral. 

I'm leaning negative, though, mainly because the Patriots should be dramatically improved, the Bills are still the Bills, and even the Jets have talent to go toe-to-toe with a Miami team that benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the league but still lost nine games in 2024. 

Hitting the over here feels a lot riskier than the alternative, although I wouldn't be overly confident either way. It's entirely possible injury luck will be kinder to a team that still has a fairly soft schedule, so the potential variance is big here.

Minnesota Vikings: Over 9.5 Wins (+105)

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

The disrespect... 

Yes, the Vikings are putting all of their eggs in the basket of a quarterback who has never thrown an NFL pass and is coming off major knee surgery.

But J.J. McCarthy will be throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison while backed by a defense that ranked fifth in points allowed and an offensive line that is one of the best in the sport. 

The Vikings are a high-quality, balanced team that won 14 games in 2024. They could well take a step back in a tough division, especially if McCarthy experiences growing pains, but let's not pretend Sam Darnold was a megastar from start to finish. 

And a "step back” for a team like this means 12 or 13 wins. Maybe even just 10 or 11. In all of those cases, we're still good with the over. 

This is a no-brainer. 

New England Patriots: Under 8.5 Wins (+100)

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

On many occasions thus far in this exercise, I've alluded to the fact that the Patriots should be a much improved team in 2025. 

Despite that, I'm about to tell you while I'm still rolling with the under on a futures win total that would require them to post a winning record to hit the over this season. 

Honestly, this feels like overkill. It's easy to get fired up about quarterback Drake Maye entering his sophomore campaign, especially considering what the Patriots did this offseason to support him along the offensive line and in the receiving corps. 

But the fact is sophomore slumps are real...and common. We also have no idea how quickly the revamped line will come together, and how long it will take Maye to acclimate to everything new. The rest of the league has plenty of tape on him now, too, and this is a team that won just four games in 2024. 

The climb remains steep, especially in a strong division (even if the overall sked looks quite forgiving). 

The Patriots can double their win total from 2024, but that might be the ceiling for a young squad that is still at least a year away. 

New Orleans Saints: Over 5.5 Wins (+115)

AP Photo/Matthew Hinton

The Saints went 3-12 following a surprise 2-0 start last season. Injuries were a huge factor, though, and it's important to keep in mind the NFC South remains weak. 

You might look at the state of this roster post-Derek Carr and think six wins would require a herculean effort, but New Orleans didn't have Carr for a large chunk of 2024 as well.

This year, they're slated to enjoy the third-easiest schedule in football, and the law of averages should favor them after ranking fourth in adjusted games lost last year. 

Kellen Moore has a huge future as an NFL head coach, and he should help the Saints battle via solid offensive line play and the presence of guys like Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. 

The Saints aren’t a great team, but neither side of the ball is a complete disaster and they probably have enough going for them to win half-a-dozen games in that division.  

New York Giants: Under 5.5 Wins (-120)

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Wrong place, wrong time. 

I want to buy into the Giants, but they have the most difficult schedule in the entire league. And while Russell Wilson could well be rejuvenated in a new setting with the rising Malik Nabers headlining his arsenal, that's far from guaranteed considering the QB's late-career path. 

Regardless, those guys could need some time. And it doesn't help that there isn't much talent beyond that or that the offensive line appears to be a huge liability. 

Even if the defense takes a step forward with Abdul Carter and Jevon Holland on board, this team is likely to improve on a three-win 2024 campaign by no more than a win or two in 2025. 

New York Jets: Over 6.5 Wins (+120)

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

The Jets were more talented than their 5-12 record in 2024, and they are certainly talented enough to win seven-plus games in 2025.

I'm not confident that will happen, though, because there are so many variables for which to account. But they're more likely than not to improve markedly now that the Aaron Rodgers mess is behind them and they're moving forward with an exciting new regime in place. 

There's a new culture with this team. And while Justin Fields may not be the answer at quarterback, there's a chance he could be. At the very least, he's a uniquely talented player who should have some nice moments throwing to Garrett Wilson behind a tremendous young offensive line. 

There's also a good chance last year's struggles were a blip for a defense that has top-10 potential and showed flashes of that in 2022 and 2023. 

This team is far from bad.

Philadelphia Eagles: Under 11.5 Wins (-130)

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

The Eagles have fluctuated above and below the 11.5-win mark in each of Nick Sirianni's four seasons as head coach, and they're due to drop below 11.5 again in 2025. 

I think the trend continues, not because Philadelphia isn't one of the most talented teams in football (it is) but because it will have a target on its back following a Super Bowl victory.

The Eagles are also stuck in a tough spot with the emerging Commanders, unpredictably skilled Cowboys and no-longer-laughable Giants in the NFC East. 

Philly will have the fourth-toughest schedule in football on paper, and you have to consider they were the healthiest team in the NFC in terms of adjusted games lost in 2024. Since then, they've said goodbye to key veterans C.J. Gardner Johnson, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams and Mekhi Becton, among others. 

The Eagles will be in the thick of things again in 2025, but 10 or 11 wins makes more sense as the division challenges them hard with a tough schedule.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 8.5 (-110)

AP Photo/Matt Freed

It's been, like, a thousand years since the Steelers last posted a losing record. But they also haven't won more than 10 games since 2020. They've been treading water as a quasi-contender. 

Is it finally time for the wheels to fall off?

Considering the damage Aaron Rodgers did to the Jets in 2024, it's hard to envision him walking into Pittsburgh at age 41 and doing more good than harm. Yes, he'll have DK Metcalf, but that's not a massive upgrade over Garrett Wilson (and he's merely replacing George Pickens).

The Steelers defense remains strong if top-heavy, but that unit also hasn't proved good enough in recent years to carry the team. 

Pittsburgh is pretty much the definition of average, with some clear strengths (the pass rush and the secondary) and some major concerns (Rodgers, offensive tackle, depth at skill positions). 

Don't be shocked if they somehow pull off nine or 10 wins, but I'm betting they finally fall short of .500 for the first time since 2003.

San Francisco 49ers: Under 10.5 Wins (-130)

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

The 49ers were hit by injuries in such a devastating manner last season that it's difficult to take that 6-11 record into account when assessing the team's chances of winning 11-plus games in 2025. 

On one hand, there's a very good statistical probability they will be healthier in 2024. 

One the other hand, they've now waved goodbye to key veterans Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward, Aaron Banks and Deebo Samuel, while Brandon Aiyuk appears to be far from recovered from a major knee injury. 

That doesn't bode well for quarterback Brock Purdy's chances of bouncing back from a tough third season in which he came back to earth in a major way.

The good news is the schedule looks soft and the division is too. Still, the "other hand" above carried a lot of weight. I'm leaning 10-7 or 9-8.

Seattle Seahawks: Over 8.5 (-140)

Perry Knotts/Getty Images

The Seahawks have won at least nine games in three consecutive seasons, but they've merely been teetering around that mark.

They did go 6-2 down the stretch to finish 2024 10-7 despite a tough schedule, but they have gone through some major roster changes this offseason. 

Do I trust them? Heck no. The offensive line is a liability and his late-season struggles in 2024 could indicate incoming quarterback Sam Darnold was a one-hit wonder with the Vikings. With less support in terms of pass protection and weaponry, he could have trouble in a new setting. 

Still, defensive continuity could be a huge plus for a team that has the talent to stand out on that side of the ball, and they're far from void of talent on offense. I do believe in head coach Mike Macdonald, and Seattle's road ahead isn't too treacherous in a winnable division. 

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and lean over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 9.5 (-105)

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

The Buccaneers always seem to be in the mix, even if quarterback Baker Mayfield isn't consistently elite. 

It helps that the offensive line is superb and there's a nice mix of experienced leadership and young talent in Tampa, and that the roster has remained relatively healthy while benefiting from manageable schedules in a soft division. 

We can't predict the injury part, but there's little reason to expect the rest of it to change in 2025.

The Bucs aren't a juggernaut that can win 12 or 13 games, but they can be counted on to post a winning record again. The fact that they won six of their last seven games last year has me leaning into double digits, but we have to acknowledge it could also easily blow up if Mayfield implodes and/or some of the vets fall off cliffs. 

Tennessee Titans: Under 5.5 (+125)

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Only the Browns were less competitive than a Titans team that lost eight games by more than a score and won just a single home game in regulation during a 3-14 campaign last year.

The rebuild continues, which is exciting when it comes to a No. 1 pick at quarterback but also likely means more turbulence in 2025 for Tennessee. 

I don't see the team doubling its win total while quarterbacked by Cam Ward, who could become something special but isn't positioned for that right out of the gate.

Ward's internal clock is likely to be problematic in his rookie season, especially because the offensive line remains a work in progress and the supportive talent still isn't there on either side of the ball.

We could see steady improvement throughout the year, but the AFC South is gaining steam. This will take some time.

Washington Commanders: Over 9.5 (-125)

AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

I love that the Washington Commanders saw what they had during a breakout 2024 campaign and decided against rolling with the status quo. 

Knowing how often teams sneak up on the league with star rookie quarterbacks and then regress a year later, the Commanders smartly added two key veterans (Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel) to support reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels under center.

They also added experience on defense, namely in the form of legendary edge-rusher Von Miller. 

Considering all of that and the fact that they won their final five games last regular season before marching to the NFC Championship, it's hard to imagine a Washington team that went 12-5 in 2024 somehow losing eight games in 2025 (even with worse injury luck in a tough division).