Predicting the 2nd-Half Fantasy Baseball All-Breakout Team
While only a short hiatus falling more than halfway through the season, MLB's All-Star break gives players and fantasy baseball managers a chance to clear their heads and press reset.
Sure, little actually changes from last Sunday to this weekend other than a day-by-day calendar. Yet nothing stays the same throughout the entire arduous season, and the easy cutoff point serves as a helpful dividing line to mark such fluctuation.
Most leagues, especially head-to-head formats, remain up for grabs with over two months remaining. Whether through trades or waiver-wire adds, gamers still have opportunities to replenish for the stretch run. Or maybe they just need to sit back and wait for a slumping star to catch fire.
This all-breakout team features a variety of talent. Some are household names in line for a strong finish. Other rising stars who caught fire before the break will complete their climb to the top. A few may still be available, but others would require a trade.
C: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles
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For better or worse, Matt Wieters' return from Tommy John surgery hasn't made a major splash. In his first taste of action since early 2014, the 29-year-old catcher is hitting .265/.295/.482 with three homers through 26 games.
His shaky plate discipline creates some concern. In 89 plate appearances, he has issued only four walks while striking out 22 times. He has swung and missed on a career-high 12.8 percent of offerings, generating a career-low 74.3 contact percentage.
When he got his bat on the ball, however, he made strong contact. Among catchers with at least 50 plate appearances, only Welington Castillo has a higher hard-hit percentage than Wieters' 39.7. That has led the Baltimore Orioles veteran to 11 extra-base hits.
Don't forget how valuable he was before missing a year. He entered 2014 with three straight 20-homer campaigns, a pattern he looked to extend with five long balls in 26 games last year. As he continues to reassimilate to the majors, Wieters should settle back into a worthy No. 1 catcher.
1B: Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
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Didn't this just happen last year? Carlos Santana stinks to start the season, but he catches his bearings just as everyone starts to wonder why they fall for his trap every year.
The Cleveland Indians slugger has a well-documented habit of starting slow. A career .235/.362/.411 hitter before the break, his slash line spikes to .260/.370/.469 after the arbitrary endpoint. Last year, he turned on the jets slightly earlier, entering June 1 with a .154 average but salvaging his final outcome to .231.
He has more work to do this year, hitting a paltry .221 with 10 homers. He's also saddled with a career-high 46.1 ground-ball percentage, a rise attributable to defenses shifting the pull hitter.
Santana owners would rather see his power recover. They want the guy who amassed 27 deep flies during 2011 and 2014, not the one who offered 18 in 2012 and 20 in 2013. Either way, they should at least see another strong finish from the notorious late bloomer.
2B: Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
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A popular sleeper heading into the season, Rougned Odor played his way down to a demotion. The 21-year-old second baseman seems to have received the memo loud and clear.
Since returning from the minors on June 15, he's hitting .350/.395/.550 with three homers and four stolen bases. Yet he somehow remains available in 64 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues.
Through 166 career games for the Texas Rangers, Odor is batting .254 with 13 homers and nine steals. Young, highly touted middle infielders with power and speed typically don't sit on the waiver wire for long.
After striking out 16 times in April, he has endured 10 punchouts in 86 plate appearances since his mid-June promotion. Although his current hot streak won't last to such a distinct magnitude, he's certainly worth owning going forward.
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3B: Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers
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Revered as a star prospect upon his arrival, Nick Castellanos has drastically underwhelmed by hitting .243/.287/.372 this season. Brandishing a minus-1.3 WAR, the 2010 first-round selection needs to show something fast before the win-now Detroit Tigers give up.
Providing a glimmer of hope, the third baseman has hit .333 over his last 18 games. Nitpicking for sure, but Baseball America ranked him MLB's No. 21 prospect two years ago on the strength of his bat. Maybe the 23-year-old's career isn't over yet.
A breakout endorsement doesn't mean anybody should expect the next Manny Machado or Nolan Arenado. Yet if he keeps this up, Castellanos will force mixed league gamers to take notice.
SS: Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates
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A position where Brandon Crawford, Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar are viable starters, shortstop supplies few breakout candidates. It felt weird touting Xander Bogaerts' star upside when he's already a top-10 option despite hitting three homers.
Jung Ho Kang hasn't wowed anybody with a .268/.348/.384 slash line, but that's not too shabby from a shortstop-eligible player. With Josh Harrison injured, he'll play regularly at third base rather than fighting off Jordy Mercer for a permanent gig.
The 28-year-old has brandished a solid plate approach after years of seasoning in South Korea. Yet the power hasn't followed; he has four homers with a 54.0 ground-ball percentage. In his last season with the Nexen Heroes, Kang crushed 40 long balls.
Half a season isn't a large enough sample size to write off any MLB power potential. Kang isn't going to become Troy Tulowitzki or even Jhonny Peralta any time soon, but try to find shortstops to get excited about. (This is where many readers will say, "What about Corey Seager?" Don't bank on the Los Angeles Dodgers calling up the top prospect until September.)
OF: Melky Cabrera, Chicago White Sox
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When the Chicago White Sox poached Melky Cabrera from the Toronto Blue Jays, they signed up for an outfielder who just hit .301/.351/.458. Even if the power veered a tad above reasonable expectations, the White Sox and fantasy drafters felt comfortable in securing a career .284 hitter.
Through 85 games, he's hitting .261/.304/.339 with four home runs and a stolen base. If the All-Star break took place during mid-June, we'd be talking about his .240 average.
Over the past month, however, the 30-year-old outfielder turned the corner, batting .326 with an .890 OPS. Don't expect that guy for another 10 weeks, but count on much better production than his first two-and-a-half dismal months.
As for power, keep expectations minimal. He's capable of more than he's shown so far, but he never displayed any consistency in that department. Instead of hitting four homers, he can offer six or seven going forward, which will once again make Cabrera a strong play in five-outfielder formats.
SP: Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
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After redeeming a horrendous start, Taijuan Walker surrendered 11 runs over his last two outings. He now holds a 4.84 ERA and 4.12 fielding independent pitching (FIP), which hardly scream fantasy mainstay.
That's the bad news. The good news? Since May 24, the 22-year-old righty has registered 61 strikeouts and four walks over his last 59.1 innings. Even with last week's pair of tumultuous games, he has posted a 3.03 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over that stretch.
Walker looked wildly unreliable before morphing into an ace, allowing 35 earned runs over his first nine starts. Another blowup outing from a demotion, he compelled many mixed league managers to curse themselves for trusting spring success.
His pre-break troubles came against two potent offenses in the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels. Maybe he's not Felix Hernandez just yet, but the Seattle Mariners have another future ace on their hands.
RP: Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies
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This is probably the fifth time making this point over the past year, but the Philadelphia Phillies would be insane not to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon. If he goes before the July 31 trade deadline, Ken Giles seizes the ninth inning.
If moving an expensive reliever isn't enough of a reason for a decrepit franchise to act, the disgruntled closer used his All-Star appearance to send out an SOS.
"That's not what I signed up for," Papelbon said during Monday's media session, per ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. "I signed up with a team that won 102 games, and I expected certain things. It didn't happen, and I've tried to ride that ship and keep my mouth shut as much as I can. But it's time for the Phillies to you-know-what or get off the pot."
Philadelphia needs to jettison him for whatever it can get. Once it does so, Giles morphs into a top-10 fantasy closer.
Compared to last year's groundbreaking debut, his 1.86 ERA, 2.27 FIP and 11.41 strikeouts per nine innings actually signify regression. Those numbers still make for a top-tier closer, even for baseball's worst franchise.
The hard-throwing 24-year-old righty has caught fire after a bumpy start. He has not allowed an extra-base hit over his last 17.1 innings, accumulating 28 strikeouts in the process. Adding him now is about as good as finding Craig Kimbrel in free agency.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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