7 MLB Teams Primed for a 2nd-Half Surge into the 2025 Playoffs
The 2025 MLB season returned from the All-Star break on Friday, and you can rest assured the playoff field as of that day is due to undergo changes.
Take the 2024 season as an example. At the All-Star break, the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals were all positioned to make the postseason. Not one of them actually did.
With this in mind, it's fair to ask: Which teams that were not in the playoff picture as of the All-Star break could end up playing in October?
There are only so many solid bets among the 18 teams that qualified for the discussion, but we went ahead and isolated seven that have a shot. Some are already trending in the right direction, while others can pin their hopes on an easy schedule, positive regression, injury returns and the like.
Let's count 'em down in ascending order of their odds to make the playoffs at FanGraphs.
Cleveland Guardians
1 of 7
Record at All-Star Break: 46-49
Deficits: 12.0 GB in AL Central, 4.5 GB in AL wild-card race
Playoff Odds: 10.3 percent
All seemed lost when the Guardians dropped 10 in a row between June 26 and July 6, but this would appear to be a "Hold your horses" situation.
Cleveland subsequently won six out of seven to close the first half, and then opened the second with an 8-6 win over the Athletics. They're a bottom-feeder, of course, but that brings us to the kicker: Cleveland's remaining schedule is easy.
Per FanGraphs, only one team in the American League has a lighter schedule than the Guardians down the stretch. Which is good, because beating up on bad teams is sort of their whole jam. They're 26-13 against clubs with losing records.
Though it is hard to imagine the Guardians being aggressive buyers at the July 31 trade deadline, any continued winning might at least convince them to hold onto guys like Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana. Both are sorely needed in a lineup that is already asking too much of José Ramírez.
Eventually, 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber will make his return from Tommy John surgery. It won't be a moment too soon, as Cleveland's rotation was short-handed even before Luis L. Ortiz was put on a leave of absence.
Then there's the other reason to believe the Guardians will stay in the race: They just usually do, as they have missed the playoffs only three times since 2016.
Cincinnati Reds
2 of 7
Record at All-Star Break: 50-47
Deficits: 7.5 GB in NL Central, 2.5 GB in NL wild-card race
Playoff Odds: 11.3 percent
Unlike the other team in Ohio, the Reds can't count on an easy schedule to buoy them into October for the first time since 2020.
They're actually tied with the Red Sox for the most difficult remaining schedule in the league, for which it doesn't help that they share the NL Central with three other playoff contenders.
The Reds have nonetheless been playing good ball lately, going 22-14 since June 6. The offense has been in something of a groove, with Elly De La Cruz in particular posting a 151 wRC+ in this span.
Also, keep an eye on Sal Stewart as someone who could provide offensive help from within. He's done nothing but hit since the Reds drafted him in 2022, and he recently got bumped up to Triple-A.
There otherwise isn't much question that the Reds can pitch, as they're third in the league with a 116 ERA+. And while his timeline remains uncertain, they'll only get stronger on the mound once staff ace Hunter Greene is back from a groin strain.
In the meantime, the big question is whether the Reds will continue to play well enough to keep the front office on board. To this end, they'll need to slay some dragons in series against the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Kansas City Royals
3 of 7
Record at All-Star Break: 47-50
Deficits: 12.0 GB in AL Central, 4.5 GB in AL wild-card race
Playoff Odds: 11.5 percent
Here's where we get back into the "Dang, their remaining schedule is easy" camp, and how.
The Royals have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the American League, with highlights including their ongoing series against the Miami Marlins and six more against the Chicago White Sox. They're already 23-17 against losing teams.
If the Royals' trade for Adam Frazier is a sign of anything, it's that they're already convinced to avoid selling at the deadline. And even if they aren't big buyers, well, that's OK.
They stand to get Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen back off the injured list in the not-too-distant future, both of whom will deepen an already strong pitching staff. Meanwhile, Jac Caglianone is too talented to only have a .466 OPS.
Then there's Bobby Witt Jr., who almost certainly hasn't played his best yet even though he's having a fine season by any measure.
His OPS is down 142 points from 2024, but there would seem to be some bad luck at play there. As long as he keeps stinging the ball like he has been, he may yet live up to the 1.054 OPS that he had after the break last season.
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Minnesota Twins
4 of 7
Record at All-Star Break: 47-49
Deficits: 11.5 GB in AL Central, 4.0 GB in AL wild-card race
Playoff Odds: 23.0 percent
The Twins are running out of time to state their case before the trade deadline, but it already feels like other teams should nix their hopes of a huge sell-off.
Byron Buxton has made it clear that he's going nowhere, and fellow All-Star Joe Ryan is "unlikely" to go anywhere either, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
This doesn't necessarily mean the Twins won't sell, as they may well get what they can for rentals like Willi Castro and Chris Paddack. But it seems there's some level of belief in Minnesota that this is a playoff team, and yet another easy remaining schedule isn't the only reason that could pan out.
The Twins could use some pitching reinforcements, and they stand to get a major boost once Pablo López is back from a teres major strain. He had a 2.82 ERA in 11 starts when he was healthy.
There is also the prospect of a Carlos Correa hot streak, which may already be building. Albeit without much in the way of power, he's hitting .337 in 23 games going back to June 19.
There are a couple of prospects who could help Correa charge the offense if they make strong returns from injuries. One is Luke Keaschall, who had a strong debut in April before fracturing his forearm. The other is Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the club's No. 2 prospect.
St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 7
Record at All-Star Break: 51-46
Deficits: 6.5 GB in NL Central, 1.5 GB in NL wild-card race
Playoff Odds: 28.8 percent
What happened last year does not bode well for the Cardinals, and the season they're having is probably too good to be true as is.
Still, anyone hoping to see the Cardinals carry out a major deadline fire sale may not want to get their hopes up. Per Katie Woo of The Athletic, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is "hesitant" to even trade relievers such as Ryan Helsley.
The backdrop here is certainly relevant, as this is to be Mozeliak's last year in charge before turning the Cardinals over to Chaim Bloom. If he can go out with a bang, you have to imagine he'll do everything in his power to make it happen.
It doesn't hurt that the Cardinals are yet another club with an easy remaining schedule, which is coming at the right time. They have been scuffling of late, losing 10 out of their last 14 games.
Though it's hard to imagine the Cardinals being buying aggressively at the deadline, don't underestimate the boosts they could get from within. Iván Herrera and Jordan Walker are already back, and Lars Nootbaar will be before long.
They're also hearing top prospect JJ Wetherholt pound on the door. Though he was drafted just last year, he's already at Triple-A and is sitting on a .934 OPS through 66 minor league games so far in 2025.
Tampa Bay Rays
6 of 7
Record at All-Star Break: 50-47
Deficits: 5.5 GB in AL East, 1.5 GB in AL wild-card race
Playoff Odds: 37.6 percent
The Rays went as high as 11 games over .500 in the first half, but it was at that point that they went into a spiral that saw them lose 11 out of 14.
What's more, they have already played 54 of their 81 "home" games at Steinbrenner Field. They'll be hitting the road for much of the second half, which isn't ideal given their modest 23-22 record away from home.
Further still, it wouldn't be surprising if the Rays sold off some talent at trade deadline. Maybe not, say, Taj Bradley, but they could move short-term assets like Yandy Díaz, Zack Littell and Pete Fairbanks.
So why include them? Well, at least in part because they won't necessarily be "sellers" even if they sell. They could be flexible, moving talent while simultaneously bringing aboard players who can help right away.
As is, this is a solid offensive team with a lineup based around a trio of All-Stars. The pitching staff also goes deep, and that much more so when ace lefty Shane McClanahan comes off the injured list.
More generally, this Rays team has played too well to have such a mediocre record. At plus-72, their run differential is the third-best in the American League.
San Francisco Giants
7 of 7
Record at All-Star Break: 52-45
Deficits: 6.0 GB in NL West, 0.5 GB in NL wild-card race
Playoff Odds: 45.2 percent
Remember when the Giants were supposed to take off after trading for Rafael Devers in June?
The extent to which this has not happened is frankly shocking. The Giants are only 11-16 when Devers has suited up for them, and he deserves a good chunk of the blame for that given that he has a .655 OPS and two homers as a Giant.
But this is also precisely where the bullish case for the Giants begins. Devers is simply too good of a hitter to be so unproductive, and there's more to hope for than just positive regression. There's also the potential of him being healthy again after struggling with a bad back in his first few weeks as a Giant.
In the meantime, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee are already helping to carry the offense, and Willy Adames has begun to as well. He got off to a dreadfully slow start, but has since posted a .940 OPS in his last 33 games.
The Giants already have pitching figured out to the tune of a 3.56 ERA, though they do need more from Justin Verlander. What's under the hood isn't promising in this respect, but his track record obviously speaks for itself.
It also might not be the worst thing that the Giants have a difficult remaining schedule. They tend to get up against winning teams, going 28-24 against them so far.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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