MLB Rumors: Analyzing Trade Buzz for Jay Bruce, James Shields and More

Major League Baseball has reached its most critical point of the season for all 30 teams. July is when every front office makes the decision to buy or sell at the deadline, though this year is going to test that more than most due to the second wild card. 

As things stand at the All-Star break, 21 of the 30 teams are within six games of a playoff spot. Only two division leaders—the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers—are ahead by more than four games. 

It's not hard to find sellers, but they are going to have all the leverage with so many teams still in the race that buyers may not be willing to pay the price. That's not stopping rumors about big-name players from coming out. 

There are still two weeks to go before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, so teams aren't under pressure to make a move now. Those extra (approximately) 14 games for everyone will hopefully clear the divide between true contenders and pretenders. 

Until then, here's where the trade winds are blowing following the 2015 season's first half. 

Cincinnati Lightly Opening Trade Doors

Of all the potential sellers this summer, no one has more talent to give up than the Cincinnati Reds. That's what happens when you have an ace pitcher in the final year of his deal who's able to command a huge contract this winter. 

However, per ESPN's Buster Olney, the Reds have put one of their position players on the market before Johnny Cueto:

It's not hard to figure out why Cincinnati's front office would try to move on from Jay Bruce. He's having a solid bounce-back season and is signed through 2016 at a reasonable salary of $12.5 million with an option for 2017. 

More encouraging for teams seeking a bat is how Bruce has come back after a slow start this season, per Olney:

It's no secret that offense remains hard to come by for most teams, as the average 2015 game features a total of 4.10 runs. That rate would tie for the 30th-lowest mark since 1871.

A corner outfielder like Bruce, who is still in his prime years and cost effective, could net the Reds a healthy return. It's also unclear how the market for hitters will look this summer, so getting his name out there early can get them a head start in discussions. 

San Diego's Failed Plan

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

In a perfect world, the San Diego Padres would be 10 games over .500 and fighting with the Dodgers atop the National League West. That's why the front office basically rebuilt the entire roster last winter. 

As everyone in sports knows, even the best laid plans seldom work out correctly. The Padres are currently 41-49, 10 games out in the NL West and 7.5 games out of the wild card. 

In other words, Padres general manager A.J. Preller should have a busy time ahead of him trying to shed money and accrue assets for the future that will hopefully get the team contending once again. 

Preller and his bold, creative staff aren't above taking big swings, which makes this report from Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com all the more enlightening:

Also in that perfect plan, James Shields would have been leading a strong rotation with Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner right behind him. 

Few players the Padres acquired last winter have panned out. Matt Kemp has a .674 OPS, Will Middlebrooks still can't hit and Wil Myers has only played in 35 games. Justin Upton is playing well given the offensive limitations of Petco Park with 14 home runs. 

Shields is another player who hasn't held up his end of the bargain. Despite going from one spacious park in Kansas City to another in San Diego, the right-hander has a 4.01 ERA and his home run rate has gone from 0.9 in 2014 to 1.5 this season. 

That's a problem for any team even thinking about making a move for Shields. If his numbers look like this playing in a division with big parks such as Petco Park, AT&T Park and Dodger Stadium, what will happen in a smaller stadium?

Add to that Shields being signed for three more years beyond 2015, and suddenly the Padres could end up being faced with a situation where they are paying him a lot to go away and getting a fringe prospect or two in return. 

The Pennsylvania Story

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

There was a time not too long ago when the Philadelphia Phillies were the envy of every team in baseball and the Pittsburgh Pirates were a laughingstock. 

While the Pirates may not be the envy of baseball yet, they do have the third-best record in the majors at the break. The Phillies have dissolved into a laughingstock with a 29-62 record, 9.5 games behind any other team. 

With these two franchises headed in opposite directions, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune reported they have talked about trades:

Ben Revere would be an interesting addition for the Pirates, who have struggled to get consistent production out of the leadoff spot in 2015. 

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB
Pirates Leadoff Hitters	.259	.321	.341	15-of-24
Ben Revere	.297	.337	.379	21-of-26

The problem for the Pirates if they do want Revere, even as an injury replacement for Josh Harrison, is his contract status. The 27-year-old has two more years of control, which would give Pittsburgh an overcrowded outfield. 

There's no reason to move Andrew McCutchen off center field. Starling Marte has saved six runs in left field, per FanGraphs.com. Right fielder Gregory Polanco is struggling with the bat and could be sent down to Triple-A if the team acquires another outfielder. 

Olney did report on July 12 that Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has told Polanco he's not in danger of being sent down. That could change if a move gets made, though Revere's bat isn't exactly what a team wants in a corner outfield spot. 

That's why a bench player such as Jeff Francoeur, who is a free agent at the end of 2015, seems like a more logical fit even if he is just a worse version of Polanco.

The 31-year-old has a .277 on-base percentage this season, which makes Polanco's .315 mark look All-Star caliber by comparison. 

Pittsburgh is in an enviable spot where it can do whatever it wants—buy or stand pat—because even with some of the overall problems, the team is one of the best in baseball and is challenging St. Louis atop the National League Central. 

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.