Predicting Every NFL Team's Biggest Bust of the 2025 NFL Season

The NFL offseason is a time of hope and positivity. Every franchise features exciting new faces and an empty loss column.

As the calendar turns to training camp, however, several teams are in store for a reality check. Thirty-two of them can't make the playoffs, and not every addition is going to meet expectations.

We'll dive into the latter piece of the equation here by examining some players who carry big expectations after being drafted highly, headlining free agency, receiving lucrative contract extensions or simply raising the proverbial bar through 2024 performance.

Contract status, cap implications, past production, positional value and any relevant team-specific factors were all considered here.

AFC East

AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Joey Bosa

Buffalo Bills: Edge Joey Bosa

Even if the Buffalo Bills get respectable production out of pass-rusher Joey Bosa, the five-time Pro Bowler could be viewed as a bust. This is because name recognition largely outweighs production at this point in the 30-year-old's career.

Bosa had solid numbers with the Los Angeles Chargers last season (5 sacks, 19 QB pressures), but he's still an aging defender who has appeared in only 28 games over the past three years. Bosa may struggle to live up to his $12.6 million price point in 2025, and those expecting him to be the regular game-wrecker he was early in his career will likely be disappointed.

Miami Dolphins: S Minkah Fitzpatrick

Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is highly unlikely to flat-out bust for the Miami Dolphins in 2025. The five-time Pro Bowler is a quality starter who was on the field for the Pittsburgh Steelers in all 17 games last season.

However, Fitzpatrick also came to Miami as part of a trade that sent cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith to Pittsburgh. He'll need to play extremely well to bring a sense of balance to the exchange, and the 28-year-old simply hasn't been as impactful in recent years.

Fitzpatrick had just one interception over the past two seasons and allowed an opposing passer rating of 127.6 in coverage last season.

New England Patriots: Edge Harold Landry III

The bust potential of pass-rusher Harold Landry III lies in the financials. The New England Patriots gave the 29-year-old a three-year, $43.5 million contract in free agency. That's a substantial sum for an edge-defender who is probably second-tier at best.

Landry has only reached double-digit sacks twice in his career. While he recorded nine quarterback takedowns last season, he also logged a modest 18 quarterback pressures.

New York Jets: CB Sauce Gardner

The expectations are undoubtedly high for New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is often viewed as an elite corner and is hoping to be paid like one.

"We have our goals, in terms of numbers and stuff like that, and the Jets are aware of that," Gardner told The Pat McAfee Show (h/t Bleacher Report's Julia Stumaugh).

The problem is that Gardner may struggle to meet the hype in 2025. The two-time first-team All-Pro is undoubtedly talented but more good than great last season—Pro Football Focus ranked him 46th overall among cornerbacks.

Another good-not-great season will have Gardner viewed as a bust, if, as many might expect, he becomes the league's highest-paid cornerback at some point in 2025.

AFC South

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Cam Robinson

Houston Texans: OT Cam Robinson

The Houston Texans made the curious decision to trade away a quality starter in left tackle Laremy Tunsil as part of their offseason overhaul. While incoming tackle Cam Robinson had nothing to do with that decision, he may end up getting the bust label for being Tunsil's replacement.

Robinson has always been a serviceable starter when healthy but never a star. He appeared in 17 games last season with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings and was responsible for 13 penalties and seven sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focus.

With a one-year, $12 million contract, Robinson's price point is reasonable. However, he isn't likely to make fans forget about Tunsil—and that's assuming he manages to hold off rookie second-round pick Aireontae Ersery.

Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson

The Indianapolis Colts used the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft on quarterback Anthony Richardson, and they may already be prepared to turn the page on the Florida product.

Injuries and inconsistent passing performances have prevented Richardson from being a reliable full-time starter. Indy added Daniel Jones this offseason to push Richardson, but an offseason shoulder injury may have given Jones the edge to start.

"It already feels like Jones will be the Week 1 starter," Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk recently wrote. "He’ll then have a chance to lock the revolving door the Colts have had since Andrew Luck retired. If he doesn’t, the Colts will be looking elsewhere in 2026."

Unless Richardson cleanly beats out Jones for the starting job and then makes a massive jump in efficiency (67.8 career QB rating), he's likely to cement his bust status this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars: G Patrick Mekari

Bad teams often overpay to add free agents, and we saw a couple of AFC South teams do it for offensive linemen this season. That could lead to players like Patrick Mekari becoming financial busts, even though they were overpaid from the moment they arrived.

The Jacksonville Jaguars gave Mekari a three-year, $37.5 million deal to lure him away from Baltimore. That makes him the 18th-highest-paid guard in the NFL in terms of annual salary. Last season, he was ranked just 71st overall among guards by Pro Football Focus.

Tennessee Titans: OT Dan Moore Jr.

We're never going to fault a player for taking every last dollar he can get during his playing career. That doesn't mean, however, that the Tennessee Titans didn't massively overpay when giving Dan Moore Jr. a four-year, $82 million contract this offseason.

Moore did start 66 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last four seasons. However, he's never been a particularly reliable pass protector—he was responsible for 12 sacks allowed last season, per Pro Football Focus. With first overall pick Cam Ward expected to start in Tennessee as a rookie, that's a potentially huge issue.

AFC North

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Shemar Stewart

Baltimore Ravens: WR DeAndre Hopkins

The Baltimore Ravens only gave wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins a one-year, $5 million deal this offseason. Therefore, he shouldn't be viewed as a high-risk addition. However, anyone expecting Hopkins to significantly transform Baltimore's offense—or to become fantasy-relevant—is likely to be disappointed.

The reality is that Hopkins is a 33-year-old possession receiver who had 610 receiving yards last season and is now joining a run-heavy offense. He may make the occasional splash play as Lamar Jackson's fourth or fifth target, but it feels like the five-time Pro Bowler is simply along for the ride.

Cincinnati Bengals: Edge Shemar Stewart

It feels increasingly likely that Cincinnati Bengals rookie first-round pick Shemar Stewart is going to disappoint in 2025. The Bengals are partly to blame for that.

Cincinnati desperately needed to add defensive help this offseason and took a chance on Stewart with the 17th overall pick in April's draft. However, the Texas A&M product was always viewed as a raw and potentially risky player.

"The former Aggie is a project as a pass-rusher," Matt Holder of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "His movement skills are worth working with, but his pass-rush arsenal is currently limited due to poor hand use."

Stewart would probably need a strong offseason to be an immediate contributor for Cincinnati. Unfortunately, the Bengals' stunning inability to sign their first-round pick to a slotted contract—Cincy wants language that would allow it to void future guarantees—has already caused him to miss time. Stewart left mandatory minicamp, and a resolution "doesn’t appear to be in sight," according to the Cincinnati Enquirer's Tyler Dragon.

Cleveland Browns: QB Joe Flacco

Overall, the bar for the Cleveland Browns should be low in 2025. Cleveland won just three games a year ago and is about to navigate a four-way camp QB competition involving Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, rookie third-round pick Dillon Gabriel and rookie fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders.

Of that group, Flacco is the only quarterback who has taken snaps for the Browns in the past. Famously, he went 4-1 as the starter in 2023 while helping Cleveland earn a stunning playoff berth.

Any fans hoping to see a repeat of Flacco Fever are going to be disheartened. Assuming Flacco even beats out the other three quarterbacks, he's not joining a roster that is a QB away from postseason contention. The 2023 Browns had the league's top-ranked defense, and Cleveland has regressed significantly on that side of the ball since.

Pittsburgh Steelers: S Juan Thornhill

We've already discussed the player swap that sent safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to Miami and cornerback Jalen Ramsey to Pittsburgh, along with tight end Jonnu Smith. While Fitzpatrick may disappoint for the Dolphins, that doesn't mean the Steelers will find him easy to replace.

The top candidate to take over Fitzpatrick's role will be free-agent addition Juan Thornhill. He's unlikely, however, to play up to Fitzpatrick's Pro Bowl level. The 29-year-old has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and has allowed an opposing passer rating above 100.0 in five straight seasons.

AFC West

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Alex Cappa

Denver Broncos: RB J.K. Dobbins

This one's for the fantasy enthusiasts, who should be wary of overdrafting Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins in the coming weeks. While Dobbins did rush for 905 yards last season and signed a modest one-year, $2.7 million deal with Denver this spring, he's a strong candidate to fall short of expectations.

Dobbins has an extensive injury history and missed another four games in 2024. He's also unlikely to hold an every-down role with Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estimé and rookie second-round pick RJ Harvey also in the RB room.

Given Sean Payton's tendency to use a backfield committee, it wouldn't be a shock to see Dobbins buried on the depth chart or even with another team by midseason.

Kansas City Chiefs: OT Jaylon Moore

While the Broncos didn't overpay to add Dobbins, the rival Kansas City Chiefs may have given a bit much for former San Francisco 49ers lineman Jaylon Moore. To land the 27-year-old, who has only 12 career starts on his resume, the Chiefs handed out a two-year, $30 million deal.

Will Moore play up to his contract? Probably not. Pro Football Focus ranked Moore 25th among tackles last season, but he played just 271 offensive snaps. Kansas City also used a first-round pick on Ohio State's Josh Simmons, and if Simmons is ready to start as a rookie, Moore could be little more than an overpriced swing tackle in 2025.

Las Vegas Raiders: G Alex Cappa

The Las Vegas Raiders are set to lean on new quarterback Geno Smith and rookie first-round running back Ashton Jeanty in 2025. Both players will need a reliable offensive line to succeed, however, and free-agent addition Alex Cappa looms as a potential weak link along that line.

Cappa's two-year, $11 million contract isn't egregious, but he's still likely to underwhelm more than a few Raiders fans this season. Though it's worth noting that he was on a bad Bengals offensive line last season, Cappa was ranked just 111th overall among guards by Pro Football Focus.

It won't be a total surprise to see Cappa backing up rookie third-round pick Caleb Rogers by midseason.

Los Angeles Chargers: CB Donte Jackson

The Los Angeles Chargers decided to let 25-year-old cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. depart this offseason after stinger injuries limited him to four games in 2024 (he remains unsigned). To help reload the cornerback room, L.A. signed 29-year-old corner Donte Jackson to a two-year, $13 million contract.

That's a fairly reasonable price point for a starting corner, but the Chargers may still come to regret it. While Jackson was mostly dependable during his time with the Carolina Panthers and played well for the Steelers early last season, he showed significant regression late in 2024.

For the season, Pro Football Focus graded Jackson just 187th overall and 195th in coverage.

NFC East

AP Photo/Bart Young

Javonte Williams

Dallas Cowboys: RB Javonte Williams

The Dallas Cowboys experienced several issues in 2024, including multiple injuries. Even when the roster was mostly healthy, though, Dallas' 30th-ranked running game continually disappointed.

This offseason, the Cowboys added former Broncos running back Javonte Williams to help reload their rushing attack. While Williams' one-year, $3 million deal is modest, he's still largely expected to open the season as RB1.

However, fantasy fans, in particular, should probably lower their expectations for the 25-year-old. Williams hasn't been an explosive back since his 2022 ACL tear, and he's likely to cede touches to Miles Sanders, Deuce Vaughn and rookie Jaydon Blue early and often.

New York Giants: QB Russell Wilson

The New York Giants' decision to sign Russell Wilson to a one-year, $10.5 million contract this offseason was curious. On one hand, having a veteran on the roster will give New York time to develop rookie first-round pick Jaxson Dart. On the other hand, the Giants had already landed a bridge QB when they added Jameis Winston on a two-year deal.

There didn't seem to be a lot of interest in Wilson this offseason, which is unsurprising after he faded down the stretch with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It felt like the Giants were bidding against themselves to land the 36-year-old, and they're unlikely to get a strong return on investment.

If Wilson even wins the starting job out of training camp, don't expect him to make New York a playoff contender or make fans forget that Dart is waiting in the wings.

Philadelphia Eagles: WR Jahan Dotson

The Philadelphia Eagles traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson last August, hoping that he would finally provide the reliable WR3 the offense has long lacked. With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith continuing to dominate the target share, though, Dotson finished the year with a career-low 216 yards and no touchdowns.

Now entering a contract year, Dotson has one final chance to show that Philly didn't whiff by trading a third-round pick and two seventh-rounders for a fifth-rounder and the Penn State product. Given Dotson's pedestrian production (1,257 yards in three seasons) and the fact that the Eagles rarely involve their third receiver, don't expect that to happen.

Washington Commanders: DL Javon Kinlaw

Simply put, the Washington Commanders probably overpaid to land defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw. The 2020 first-round pick had a good year with the Jets in 2024, finishing with 40 tackles and 4.5 sacks. However, Washington gave him high-end starter money.

The Commanders were clearly eager to replace Jonathan Allen, who was released just before the start of free agency. However, Kinlaw, who had just five tackles for loss and 12 QB pressures in 2024, is unlikely to play up to his $15 million-per-year contract.

NFC South

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Xavier Legette

Atlanta Falcons: Edge James Pearce Jr.

Former Tennessee product James Pearce Jr. will face incredibly high expectations after the Atlanta Falcons traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Rams as part of the package to get him. The problem is that Pearce may be too raw to meet those expectations as a rookie.

"He doesn't fight with his hands very well right now. You see the build, and the traits, his arm length, but you see him winning with those traits alone," one general manager said before the draft, per Caleb Sisk of SI.com.

With fellow first-round pick Jalon Walker and free-agent addition Dante Fowler Jr. also on the edge for the Falcons, Pearce could be in store for a surprisingly quiet rookie campaign.

Carolina Panthers: WR Xavier Legette

Last April, the Carolina Panthers traded into Round 1 for wide receiver Xavier Legette. While he showed the occasional flash as a rookie, Legette finished his inaugural campaign with a modest 497 yards and four touchdowns.

While Panthers fans would love to see Legette make a big second-year jump, it might not happen. He underwent foot surgery early in the offseason and is unlikely to jump into a role as Bryce Young's No. 1 target. Adam Thielen remains on Carolina's roster, and the Panthers just used a first-round pick on Arizona receiver Tetairoa McMillan.

New Orleans Saints: OT Kelvin Banks Jr.

New Orleans Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough was an obvious candidate here because of his positional value and status as a potential front-runner for the starting job. However, rookie first-round pick Kelvin Banks Jr. might be even more disappointing.

The Saints decided to draft a left tackle and move 2024 first-round pick Taliese Fuaga to the right side. However, they reached when they took Banks ninth overall. He was the 33rd-ranked prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's final draft board and remains unfinished as a blocker.

"[Banks] will fall off of blocks on longer developing plays and struggle to finish due to streaky contact balance and sustain skills," Brandon Thorn of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.

Expect Banks' rookie struggles to be highlighted by having a young quarterback behind him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge Haason Reddick

There's no getting around the fact that Haason Reddick's 2024 season with the New York Jets was a mess. Reddick held out for part of the season while angling for a new contract, appeared in only 10 games and finished with just a single sack.

Despite his 2024 struggles, Reddick earned a one-year, $14 million deal from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in free agency. While a bounce-back year is possible, there's a very real chance that he never returns to peak production. Reddick will turn 31 in September and won't be surrounded by the overall defensive talent he was during his two Pro Bowl seasons with the Eagles.

NFC North

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

J.J. McCarthy

Chicago Bears: Edge Dayo Odeyingbo

Edge-defender Dayo Odeyingbo was a good rotational player for three seasons with the Colts before emerging as a starter last year. However, expectations for him are set to jump after he signed a three-year, $48 million deal with the Chicago Bears.

Unfortunately, Odeyingbo will have a difficult time living up to those higher expectations. Though a starting-caliber end, he's unlikely to provide a massive boost to Chicago's sack production. The 25-year-old had just three sacks, seven tackles for loss and 19 QB pressures in 17 games last season.

Detroit Lions: Edge Marcus Davenport

Marcus Davenport didn't earn a lucrative free-agent deal as Odeyingbo did, but he did return to the Detroit Lions on a one-year, $2.5 million deal.

Financially, the Lions don't have a ton invested in Davenport. However, they are again banking on him being a reliable pass-rushing complement to Aidan Hutchinson. History, though, suggests that he won't be.

Davenport appeared in just two games last year before suffering a season-ending triceps injury. He was limited to four games in 2023 by ankle injuries, and he hasn't topped five sacks in a season since 2021.

Green Bay Packers: G Aaron Banks

The Green Bay Packers are betting big on new left guard Aaron Banks this season. The Packers added Banks in order to move Elgton Jenkins to center and gave the free agent a four-year, $77 million deal to come to Green Bay.

Jenkins has been a two-time Pro Bowler at guard, and moving him to center full-time is a risk. If Banks can't adequately replace him, he'll likely be viewed as a bust.

Unfortunately, quarterback Jordan Love may want to brace himself for a drop-off in pass protection on the left side. Pro Football Focus ranked Jenkins third among guards in pass pro last season but graded Banks just 77th.

Minnesota Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy

To be fair, Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy has never taken a regular-season snap in the NFL. The 2024 first-round pick out of Michigan made a brief preseason appearance as a rookie before undergoing season-ending knee surgery.

The Vikings aren't about to ditch McCarthy if he plays at a below-average level in 2025.

Yet, the former Wolverine is going to face sky-high expectations in what is essentially his inaugural campaign. Minnesota won 14 games with Sam Darnold last season, then allowed Darnold to depart in free agency in order to hand the keys to McCarthy.

Add the injury to the fact that McCarthy was never viewed as an elite prospect—the B/R Scouting Department ranked him 33rd overall on its final 2024 board—and it's not hard to envision McCarthy experiencing his fair share of growing pains this season.

NFC West

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

James Conner

Arizona Cardinals: RB James Conner

The fantasy crowd may want to be wary of running back James Conner in 2025. Though the Arizona Cardinals' starter is coming off his second straight season with 1,000 rushing yards and nine total touchdowns, the 30-year-old may be in line for a regression.

Second-year running back Trey Benson should step into a more prominent role this season, and Emari Demercado is still around as Arizona's change-of-pace option. With wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. also likely to take a second-year jump, the Cardinals may also be less run-oriented than they were over the past two seasons.

Los Angeles Rams: TE Terrance Ferguson

Rams fans may want to temper expectations for rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson. The Oregon product was L.A.'s top draft choice after the team traded out of Round 1. However, the Rams still have Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson on the depth chart.

And with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams set to serve as Matthew Stafford's top two options, there may be limited targets to split between L.A.'s tight ends.

That doesn't mean that Ferguson won't eventually become a very good pass-catching tight end in Los Angeles. Like a few other players on this list, however, he may fall well short of first-year expectations.

San Francisco 49ers: Edge Mykel Williams

San Francisco 49ers rookie pass-rusher Mykel Williams is in a position similar to Ferguson's. The Georgia product may eventually be an NFL star, but he could easily underwhelm as a rookie.

Williams entered the draft with intriguing physical traits but with limited proven production (14 sacks in three seasons). He may not step into a significant rookie role either, as the 49ers traded for Bryce Huff post-draft to help complement Nick Bosa on the edge.

Most fans expect first-round picks to be instant difference-makers, but Williams may be looking at a developmental year in 2025.

Seattle Seahawks: WR Cooper Kupp

Quarterback Sam Darnold earned plenty of consideration here, as the 2025 Pro Bowler is coming off of the first good season of his NFL career and is now with a new team. The prediction here, however, is that Cooper Kupp will be even more disappointing.

This isn't to say that Kupp won't be a quality contributor when he's at 100 percent. The issue is that the 32-year-old has struggled to stay healthy since his 2021 All-Pro campaign. Despite his ongoing injury issues, Kupp was picked to help replace DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and was given a three-year, $45 million contract to do it.

At this point in his career—and with a new quarterback in Darnold—it's actually hard to envision Kupp meeting expectations.