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Every NFL Defense's Best- and Worst-Case Scenario in 2025
Offense might get all the glory, but having a defense that can neutralize dynamic offenses is still a game-changer in the modern NFL.
Case in point, the Chiefs and Eagles made the Super Bowl after finishing in the top four in scoring defense last season.
Being a defensive coordinator might be a bigger headache than it has ever been in the past. From the proliferation of run-pass options to rules that clearly favor offenses around the league, it's harder than ever to build a dynamic defense.
Every team is looking to forge the kind of defense that has answers for everything. Some have done better than others, and B/R's Gary Davenport has already ranked all 32 defenses across the league.
Here, we'll break down what the best- and worst-case scenario is for each of those units to get an idea of what could break right and what could go wrong for every team in the league.
Arizona Cardinals
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Biggest Need: Linebacker
Best-Case Scenario: Massive Defensive-Line Investment Transforms Defense
Every front office sends a message with their moves in an offseason. In the Cardinals case that message was: We're done having a below-average defensive line.
The Cards spent big to acquire Josh Sweat, Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. They then added Walter Nolen III and Jordan Burch in the draft. This was all in addition to trading for Baron Browning during the season last year.
Jonathan Gannon knows from his brief stint as Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator how much a stacked defensive line can mean for a defense. If this huge investment pays immediate dividends, it could reshape the entire narrative around the Cardinals defense.
Assuming the veterans can help bring younger players such as Nolen, Burch and Darius Robinson up to speed, Arizona could become one of the league's up-and-coming units.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Risks Don't Work Out
The Cardinals certainly didn't play it safe with a lot of their acquisitions this offseason. There's a risk profile to consider for several of their draft picks and free-agency pickups.
For example, Nolen has some disruptive film, but there were also concerns about his maturity going into the draft. Will Johnson, the team's second-round choice, is one of the biggest boom-or-bust prospects in the draft due to his injury history.
Johnson could be the biggest steal of the draft as a corner who was once considered a potential top-10 pick or his foot injuries could crop up again and cost him the season.
Sweat is good, but he hasn't always looked like a No. 1 pass-rusher. Campbell (38) and Tomlinson (31) are both getting older.
There are a lot of players who give this defense a huge range of outcomes. Some are much uglier than others.
Atlanta Falcons
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: The Falcons Finally Have a Pass Rush
The Falcons' quest to find a dominant pass-rusher is one that feels like it spans decades. The wait might finally be over in 2025.
Atlanta double-dipped in the first round of the draft with Jalon Walker and James Pearce. It also added Leonard Floyd to raise its floor.
The best-case scenario for the Falcons would see both Walker and Pearce step into roles right away while Floyd puts together another productive season. That would help the team drastically improve on its 31 sacks last season.
Ultimately, that kind of production would give a clearer look at what the secondary can do.
Worst-Case Scenario: Walker and Pearce Aren't Functional and the Secondary Collapses
There's a legitimate concern that Walker and Pearce could both take a while to figure things out. Walker was described as a "high-ceiling but low-floor type of player," by Matt Holder in his scouting report. At 6'1", 243 pounds, he's far from a clean projection.
Holder also noted Pearce was a boom-or-bust prospect. At 6'5", 243 pounds, he could also have problems being an every-down edge-defender in the league.
If Walker and Pearce can't be on the field in running situations, then their impact will be diminished.
That's a scary thought given the secondary has questions of its own. Mike Hughes and Dee Alford both struggled last season, and they still might be the best options at corner alongside A.J. Terrell.
Baltimore Ravens
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Biggest Need: Linebacker
Best-Case Scenario: Offseason Additions Make Ravens Defense No. 1 in the League
It shouldn't come as a surprise that Eric DeCosta has made at least one great move to address each pressing need for the Ravens defense.
There's no limit to how well the Ravens' unit will play if just a few of their high-profile additions pan out right away. Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie give them two veteran corners who could fix what ailed the secondary last season.
If Malaki Starks and Mike Green can contribute right away, Baltimore could have the No. 1 defense in the league.
Worst-Case Scenario: No Cornerback Solution Emerges
The floor is relatively high for the Ravens. Their cornerback depth was tested last season, but they still wound up eighth in EPA per play last season.
That being said, it's entirely possible they have similar issues to last season. Alexander is notoriously injury-prone and Awuzie is now 30 years old. If Nate Wiggins and T.J. Tampa don't take the next step, then Baltimore could be right back to square one outside of Marlon Humphrey.
Fortunately, a proven coaching staff and a talented front seven keep it in contention to be a top-10 unit.
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Buffalo Bills
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Biggest Need: Linebacker
Best-Case Scenario: Healthy Veterans and Impact Rookies Return Defense to Elite Level
For the first time in four years, the Bills defense did not rank in the top 10 in both scoring and total defense. Brandon Beane responded by signing Joey Bosa and getting aggressive in the draft.
Bosa, 29, will join Matt Milano as two talents who have shown the ability to be at the top of their position when healthy. The problem is the latter has played in just nine games over the last two seasons. The former has been on the field more, but injuries and aging have limited him to 13 sacks over the last three years.
The Bills added CB Maxwell Hairston, DL T.J. Sanders, Edge Landon Jackson and DL Deon Walker in the first four rounds of the draft. If they can get immediate contributions out of them, along with Bosa and Milano, then they are going to be right back in the top 10.
Worst-Case Scenario: Rookies Don't Help and There are More Questions for 2026
It's fair to say the Bills are in an era of transition on defense. It's a bit poetic that they've brought back Tre'Davious White as a backup plan at cornerback. He's a reminder of what Sean McDermott's first dominant defenses looked like.
The reality is that being forced to start White would be part of the worst-case scenario for Buffalo. At the very least, it should be able to start Hairston by the end of the season.
The same goes for the defensive line. The Bills brought in Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht this offseason, but they would be better off if Sanders, Jackson and Walker show they are long-term answers up front.
Otherwise, this defense will be mediocre and there will be lingering questions going into the next season.
Carolina Panthers
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: Dominant Interior Defensive Line Leads Improving Unit
There aren't a lot of position groups on the Panthers defense that even look to have the potential to be dominant. But the interior defensive line is the exception.
When healthy, Derrick Brown has proved how he can impact a game. He had an absurd 103 total tackles as a defensive linemen in 2023. Carolina has created a strong trio by adding Bobby Brown III and Tershawn Wharton in free agency.
The Panthers' best hope this season is that those three become elite quickly. Brown is coming back after missing all but one game last season, Brown III is a strong run-defending nose tackle, while Wharton is an underrated gap-shooter.
That would at least give Carolina a shot at stopping the run and getting heat on quarterbacks to become a much more respectable unit in 2025.
Worst-Case Scenario: No Answers Emerge on the Edge
Edge-rusher is still one of the biggest positional question marks for the Panthers. They took advantage of the interior linemen who were on the market.
The answers on the edge are more hypothetical at this point.
D.J. Wonnum is the most significant returner. He missed the first half of the season last year with a quad injury, but he has already dealt with back issues this summer.
The Panthers are hoping Patrick Jones II can build off his seven sacks as a part-time player for the Vikings last season. But it's hard to parse the production from the system in Minnesota.
Rookies Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen will also factor in. You'd like to think that at least two of the four will be productive, but there's a scenario in which none of them emerge.
Chicago Bears
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Dennis Allen and New Interior Line Fix Leaky Run Defense
The list of elite defensive coordinators who are previous head coaches in the NFL is impressive. Vic Fangio, Brian Flores, Jim Schwartz and Steve Spagnuolo are routinely putting out great defenses after struggling as HCs.
The Bears' best-case scenario is that Dennis Allen immediately adds himself to that list.
Fixing the run defense and developing more pass rush will need to be at the top of his agenda. Chicago was 24th in EPA per rush and didn't have a single player post six sacks or more.
If Allen can get new addition Dayo Odeyingbo and Montez Sweat to break out while Grady Jarrett and rookie Shemar Turner help improve the run defense, then the Bears can go from a middle-of-the-pack unit to top 10.
Worst-Case Scenario: Secondary Takes a Step Back and Linebacker Depth is Tested
Allen is inheriting a young, talented secondary led by Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. However, Kevin Byard is going to be 32 when the season starts and Jaquan Brisker missed all but five games last season.
It's not guaranteed that everything will work out at safety.
The Bears' potential lack of depth at inside linebacker makes that even more troubling. If Tremaine Edmunds or T.J. Edwards are forced to miss time, then fourth-round pick Ruben Hyppolite II could be forced into action before he's ready.
That scenario would put a ton of pressure on a front four that still has a lot to prove.
Cincinnati Bengals
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Al Golden Has the Secret Sauce to Bring Defense to Respectability
The Bengals defense did not hold up its end of the bargain last season. Its inability to stop the run or get consistent pressure on the passer were the root cause for Cincinnati missing the playoffs.
The Bengals made a few key additions, but they aren't improved enough on paper to assume they'll make a leap. A lot of it is going to fall on new defensive coordinator Al Golden's ability to maximize his talent.
That would mean getting first-round pick Shemar Stewart to be a difference-maker early and finally getting players like Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt to play up to their draft pedigree. That would give them a shot at finishing around league average.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Front Becomes Worst in League
The Bengals' front was questionable last season. It wasn't good against the run and Trey Hendrickson was often a solo act when it came to getting after the quarterback. The scary thing is they could be worse.
Sam Hubbard's somewhat unexpected retirement brought immediate questions. The Bengals will need Myles Murphy to step up, and getting a good rookie season from Stewart would be huge.
Unfortunately, Stewart is still entangled in contract negotiations and Hendrickson has his own contract standoff going on.
If either contract issue becomes a thing going into the season or even the preseason, the Bengals could have one of the worst defensive fronts in the league. That won't help them make any progress in Golden's first year.
Cleveland Browns
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Better Health and Impact Rookies Mean Return to 2023 Form
The Cleveland Browns defense was one of the most disappointing units in the league last season.
Myles Garrett was the only defensive player to start in all 17 games, Jeremiah Owusu-Kormoah only played in eight games before suffering a season-ending injury, and the unit just couldn't keep up with a terrible offense. Cleveland went from No. 1 in EPA per play in 2023 to 14th in 2024, but was 27th in scoring.
Owusu-Koramoah is not expected to play in 2025. But the other key contributors to the dominant version of this defense is back. In the best-case scenario, rookie Mason Graham could take the pass rush to the next level and rookie Carson Schwesinger would help make up for at least part of Owusu-Koramoah's lost production.
Worst-Case Scenario: Garrett and Ward Are Again Hung Out to Dry
Garrett is one of the best defensive players in the league, while Denzel Ward was the only other Browns defender who joined him as a Pro Bowler last season. There were many other consistent performers outside of that duo last season, though.
Garrett and Ward are a strong foundation, but the latter is a 5'11" 190-pound cornerback who has only played 16 games in a season once in his entire career. Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome II are talented but coming off bad seasons.
If those two don't bounce back, Ward gets hurt and the rookies don't make an impact, this unit might not be able to support a bad Browns offense again.
Dallas Cowboys
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Biggest Need: Interior Defensive Line
Best-Case Scenario: Healthy Cornerbacks and Improved Run Defense Create League's Best Defense
The Cowboys had a deeply flawed defensive unit last season. It finished 31st in scoring and 28th in total yards allowed. The run defense was especially atrocious, giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
But Dallas has a much higher ceiling than most teams that bad for two reasons: It could still get after the quarterback (thanks, Micah Parsons) and many of its woes were due to injuries.
DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs missed 16 games between them, while several other role players were in and out of the lineup.
Despite the injury issues, the Cowboys were still third in sacks and ninth in third-down defense. They can build off that if Bland and Diggs return healthy.
Worst-Case Scenario: Neither Diggs nor Shavon Revel Are Healthy and the Run Defense is Still Bad
The potential is immense in Dallas, but the floor is also scary.
For one, Diggs and third-round pick Shavon Revel Jr.'s are still questionable ahead of training camp. Front-office executive Stephen Jones told reporters "we’ll know a lot more when we get to camp" when it came to the cornerback tandem.
The run defense still looks dicey on paper. The front office's response to getting gashed on the ground was signing undersized defensive tackle Solomon Thomas along with linebackers Kenneth Murray and Jack Sanborn.
Mazi Smith could well become the run-stuffer the Cowboys were hoping he would be when they drafted him in 2023, but there are too many unknowns.
If Dallas gets gouged on the ground and doesn't have good health, things could get ugly again.
Denver Broncos
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Biggest Need: Cornerback Depth
Best-Case Scenario: Defense Leads a Deep Playoff Run
The Broncos came in at No. 1 in Gary Davenport's post-draft defensive rankings, and it's not hard to see why.
They have built a deep crew of pass-rushers, Patrick Surtain II was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2024, and they added Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga to strengthen the spine of the unit.
Throw in a successful rookie campaign from first-round pick Jahdae Barron, and the Broncos have everything they need to dominate on paper.
The best-case scenario for Denver wouldn't just see them finish No. 1 in regular-season metrics, it would also be propelling the team to playoff success.
The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through beating quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The Broncos couldn't contain Allen in the postseason last year. He went 20-of-26 for 270 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-7 victory.
The next step for the Broncos is becoming the kind of defense that shuts offenses down in January.
Worst-Case Scenario: New Additions Don't Mean a Move to Next Level
Barring a catastrophic run of injuries, it's hard to see the Broncos not being a top-10 defense. But going from good to great is easier said than done.
The reality is Greenlaw, Hufanga and Barron might not be enough to push Denver from a merely good one to an elite one.
Greenlaw has already had an injury scare in summer work, Hufanga has only played 17 games over the last two seasons, and Barron is a rookie.
Those additions were kind of the cherry on top of an already talented defense. The floor feels incredibly high, but we can't just assume progression will be linear.
Detroit Lions
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Kelvin Sheppard Picks Up Where Aaron Glenn Left Off
Much like the offense, the Lions are really just hoping to protect against brain drain from the defense at this point.
Dan Campbell did a great job of identifying and developing Ben Johnson on offense and Aaron Glenn on defense. Now we'll see if he can keep that model after promoting Kelvin Sheppard to defensive coordinator.
Sheppard is inheriting a unit that needs to improve against the pass, but he has young players who should be taking the next step in their development. That includes Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw.
Those guys jelling with Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph and D.J. Reed along with a healthy Aidan Hutchinson could give the Lions a top-five defense.
Worst-Case Scenario: Secondary Shuffle Goes Wrong Under New Coordinator
The Lions secondary wasn't perfect last season, but it's still notable that they'll be trying to replace Carlton Davis, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Kindle Vildor in one offseason. There's a case to be made that they could have an upgrade at each spot, but there's still an unknown element to the shift.
Throw in the fact that they are losing a defensive coordinator with a background in defensive backs, and there's a scenario in which the secondary holds back the Detroit defense.
That could put a lot of pressure on a defensive front that doesn't have a great outside sidekick for Aidan Hutchinson yet.
There's still a world in which the Lions pass defense isn't quite good enough to get them over the hump.
Green Bay Packers
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Lukas Van Ness and Multiple Corners Have Breakout Seasons
The Packers were quietly elite against the run last year, and it helped them finish fifth in EPA per play last season.
If things break the right way, they will be able to build on Jeff Hafley's strong debut season as defensive coordinator.
That would likely mean Lukas Van Ness enjoys a breakout season. The 2023 first-round pick was considered a project coming out of Iowa, and he only has seven sacks across his first two seasons. A third-year breakout would solve Green Bay's biggest need.
The Packers also need some answers to emerge at corner. Both Eric Stokes and Jaire Alexander are gone, leaving Keisean Nixon and Nate Hobbs as the likely starters on the outside.
Worst-Case Scenario: Lack of Pass-Rushing Options and Proven Corners Causes Problems
The Packers fielded one of the most underrated defenses in the league last season. But that's hard to maintain without answers at premium positions.
Rashan Gary has not become the double-digit sack machine the team hoped when it handed him an extension in 2023. If Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare and/or Barryn Sorrell don't contribute on the outside, the Packers will have a punchless pass rush.
That's going to put even more pressure on Nixon, Hobbs and others to form a strong secondary with a really good safety group.
If the Packers can't cover or get pressure on the passer, Hafley will struggle to keep this defense in the upper half of the league.
Houston Texans
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Biggest Need: Interior Defensive Line
Best-Case Scenario: New and Improved Depth Pushes Texans into Elite Territory
Much attention is paid to C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans offense, but DeMeco Ryans' side of the ball didn't get enough love for being a top-11 unit in total, pass and run defense.
The biggest difference on paper is that the Texans have the depth to be even better and more resilient. In a perfect world, their young core, which includes Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. would take a step forward while veteran depth pieces like Sheldon Rankins, Darrell Taylor and E.J. Speed help fortify the front seven.
The Texans might have the most physical secondary in the league with C.J. Gardner Johnson entering the fold. He could be their only new starter in a unit that has the potential to be elite.
Worst-Case Scenario: Defensive Line Hits the Age Cliff
On paper, there's a lot of reasons to love the Texans defense. The one thing that could come back to bite them is their reliance on older bodies along the defensive line.
Rankins, Foley Fatukasi, Denico Autry and Mario Edwards Jr. are all on the wrong side of 30. Danielle Hunter is one of the most important players on the defense and he'll be 30 in October with a few major neck and pectoral injuries on his ledger.
All of those players are set to play important roles, but there aren't a lot of younger options around to take over their snaps if they falter or get hurt. The worst-case scenario would see their potentially elite secondary held back by a deteriorating defensive line outside of Anderson.
Indianapolis Colts
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Biggest Need: Linebacker
Best-Case Scenario: Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum Lead New Secondary While Young Pass-Rushers Break Out
The secondary was the Colts' most pressing issue coming into the offseason, and they spent big on Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum to change their fortunes there.
The best-case scenario would see the veteran Ward and ascending Bynum become the leaders their young position groups need. The former is a talented corner who has played for some good teams, while the latter was pivotal for a great Vikings defense last season.
Up front, Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu are both past first-round picks who need to have breakout seasons. The former has had flashes, but the Colts need him to be a double-digit sack player moving forward.
If he and Latu can take their next step, Indianapolis could exceed expectations to become a middle-of-the-pack defense.
Worst-Case Scenario: Pass Rush is Stagnant While Ward and Bynum Can't Fix Secondary
A lot is riding on Paye and Latu becoming a legitimate pass-rushing duo. The inside tandem of Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner aren't getting any younger.
There's also reason to wonder if Ward and Bynum can really turn around the secondary. Ward is 29 years old and missed five games last season with injury. If that's a sign of things to come, he could be breaking down.
Bynum put together a good season last year, but he was also playing in Brian Flores' unique system. If he turns out to be a product of his environment, the Colts could be on track to look a lot like last year's group.
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Biggest Need: Safety
Best-Case Scenario: Travis Hunter is an Instant Star in Revamped Secondary
It's still not clear how the Jacksonville Jaguars intend to use two-way rookie Travis Hunter, but the best version of their defense would include him in some role.
The Colorado product has a high ceiling on both sides of the ball, but unleashing him as the running mate to Tyson Campbell could give the Jags two ascending players on the outside.
Throw in a good season from seasoned nickel Jourdan Lewis, and they could be much better in the secondary.
That would allow the Jags to take full advantage of Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen who could reach even higher heights in 2025.
Worst-Case Scenario: James Gladstone Finds Out He Didn't Do Enough in 2024 Offseason
New general manager James Gladstone inherited a defense that was in the bottom-third of the league in just about every meaningful metric.
Outside of drafting Hunter, the biggest move he made on defense was adding a pair of 30-year-old free agents in Eric Murray and Lewis. Early indications have the Jaguars focusing Hunter at wide receiver, so the question is how much better is the defense if Lewis and Murray are the biggest additions?
Jacksonville has also changed defensive coordinators from Ryan Nielsen to Anthony Campanile.
If the 42-year-old isn't the driving force behind a turnaround, then Gladstone is going to learn the hard way that he needs a larger investment in the defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
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Biggest Need: Interior Defensive Line
Best-Case Scenario: Continuity Drives a Top-5 Defense
From a player-movement standpoint, the Chiefs probably lost a little more talent than they gained for 2025. Kristian Fulton could be a solid addition to the cornerback room, but Mike Edwards isn't quite as good as Justin Reid, and the defensive line might miss Tershawn Wharton and Derrick Nnadi.
The good news is that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has built a defense that has earned the benefit of the doubt in Kansas City.
The Chiefs had a top-10 defense last season. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis anchor a strong pass rush, Trent McDuffie is a star in the secondary, and the linebacker corps fits Spagnuolo's system to a tee.
The best-case scenario would see the existing talent and familiarity be slightly better next season.
Worst-Case Scenario: Run Defense Takes Step Back Without Wharton and Nnadi
Wharton and Nnadi were underrated contributors on the defensive line.
The former posted 34 pressures and 6.5 sacks last season, giving the Chiefs another disruptor to pair with Chris Jones. The latter only played in three games last season, but he has been a consistent nose tackle for the team over the last seven years.
The Chiefs signed Jerry Tillery and drafted Omarr Norman-Lott to compensate for the losses. Tillery is a much different player than Nnadi, and Norman-Lott was only a rotational player in college.
Jones is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for this position group. If he gets hurt or the Chiefs opt to play him outside more, then Kansas City could have a weakness to attack.
Las Vegas Raiders
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: Secondary is Good Enough to Take Advantage of a Strong Defensive Line
Pete Carroll may be roaming the sidelines in Sin City this year, but don't expect the Legion of Boom: Silver and Black Edition on the field. The Raiders have serious questions in the secondary.
The good news for Carroll and Co. is that the Raiders have plenty of firepower up front. Getting Christian Wilkins and Malcolm Koonce back from injury gives them a real chance to have a great supporting cast for Maxx Crosby.
If Tyree Wilson gets closer to playing like a first-round pick, then the Raiders pass-rush could help a secondary that's going to take a little time to develop. A great pass rush can help a defense get close to league average.
Worst-Case Scenario: Maxx Crosby Has to Do It All Himself
Maxx Crosby might be the only sure thing the Raiders have on defense. If he has to be Bobby Boucher to the Raiders' SCLSU Mud Dogs, things could get ugly quickly.
Koonce flashed a year ago with eight sacks in 2023, but he missed the entire 2024 season. Wilkins only played in five games. It's no guarantee that either will reach their potential in 2025.
All three starting linebackers could be newcomers: Elandon Roberts, Germaine Pratt and Devin White.
The cornerback room is downright scary—and not in a good way. Jakorian Bennett, Eric Stokes and rookie Darien Porter could be competing to be the starting outside corners.
The floor is 32nd with this unit if there aren't young players and new additions who make an immediate impact.
Los Angeles Chargers
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Biggest Need: Interior Defensive Line
Best-Case Scenario: Jesse Minter Builds on Last Year's Success
Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deserves a lot of props for the one-year turnaround the Chargers defense saw last season. He took over a group that finished 24th in scoring in 2023 to lead the league at 17.7 points allowed per game last season.
Now it's time to show he can build on that success.
The task is going to fall on him and his staff because the Chargers didn't make a whole lot of moves on that side of the ball. They lost Joey Bosa and Poona Ford, but they will mostly rely on internal candidates to fill the void.
The biggest opportunities for growth lie in players such as second-year linebacker Junior Colson making strides alongside Daiyan Henley or Kyle Kennard being a surprise contributor as a fourth-round rookie.
Worst-Case Scenario: Opposing Offenses Test Run Defense...and Succeed
Success based on scheme is always about moves and counter-moves. Just like the rookie quarterback who sets the league on fire, there are coaching staffs trying to figure out how to crack the code of a new defense.
In other words, Minter will need to have new wrinkles cooked up to counter what offenses will try this season.
One area of inefficiency that teams should look to target is the run defense. The Chargers were 26th in yards allowed per carry (4.7), yet they saw the eighth-lowest percentage of run plays (41.5 percent).
The interior of the defensive line lost Ford and is probably the most questionable position group on defense. Henley is more of a coverage linebacker, and Denzel Perryman is starting to get long in the tooth.
If teams figure out they can pound the rock against the Chargers, they might start beating them at Jim Harbaugh's own game.
Los Angeles Rams
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: Young Defensive Line Becomes Elite
Only the Los Angeles Rams could lose Aaron Donald and still wind up with a defensive line with this much potential. Jared Verse was the team's first opening-round pick since 2016 and he got Rookie of the Year honors last year.
Second-round pick Braden Fiske ended up with 8.5 sacks. Pairing him with Kobie Turner gives L.A. a potentially dangerous trio moving forward. They combined for 21 sacks and the Rams were middle-of-the-pack defense.
It feels like the most realistic path toward the Rams going from mediocre to good on defense is the young guys taking the next step up front. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for L.A. to finish in the top five in sacks while stuffing the run.
That could make up for a questionable secondary and give the team the foundation for years to come.
Worst-Case Scenario: Defensive Line Growth Stagnates, Rest of Defense Fails
The easiest path to respectability in L.A. goes through the defensive line because the rest of the unit is a tougher sell.
The best hope for the linebacker crew is that fifth-round pick Chris Paul Jr. is good enough to start by the end of the season.
There isn't a ton to get excited about with the secondary. Darious Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon could be the starters at outside corner. You feel a lot better about that if they are third and fourth on the depth chart.
The defensive line has to be great or this unit doesn't inspire confidence without a great pass rush and run defense up front.
Miami Dolphins
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: Front is Healthy and Dominant Enough to Carry an Iffy Secondary
It's hard to talk yourself into the Dolphins secondary, even in the best-case scenario. They lost Jevon Holland and replaced them with players who are still a bit of a projection in Ifeatu Melifonwu and Ashtyn Davis.
Jalen Ramsey is the only sure thing at cornerback, and he continues to be at the center of trade speculation.
The best hope for the Dolphins is that everything comes together up front. A healthy Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips with an ascending Chop Robinson gives them a strong trio of outside rushers. Zach Sieler had a breakout season with 8.5 sacks on the inside.
Assuming first-round pick Kenneth Grant can help the run defense, the Dolphins could have a formidable front. That would help them float toward the middle of the league in most defensive metrics.
Worst-Case Scenario: Front Doesn't Come Together and Secondary is Among League's Worst
If the Dolphins wind up trading away Ramsey, then Storm Duck becomes the team's top outside corner. That's not a place you want to be as an NFL franchise.
The reality is the secondary has the potential to be the league's worst. If Davis and Melifonwu don't take to being full-time starters and the young cornerbacks aren't markedly better, there isn't a lot to get excited about.
That puts a lot of pressure on the front to come together or be a below-average defense.
Minnesota Vikings
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: Dominant Front Helps Questionable Secondary Look Elite
Brian Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. No one dials up pressures like Flores and the Vikings defense benefitted from his aggressive style.
The Vikings were sixth in pressure percentage and had the No. 1 defense in EPA per rush. Now imagine that front with Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave added to the middle.
There's no question corner is the biggest question on the Vikings defense. They added Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah to be presumptive starters on the outside with Byron Murphy Jr. as the slot corner.
Ideally, Rodgers and Okudah would put together career years playing behind a defensive line that should dominate.
Worst-Case Scenario: New-Look Secondary Can't Hold Up Its End of the Bargain
It's hard to imagine a Flores-led defense not getting consistent pressure on the quarterback.
The biggest question is whether the Vikings will have the secondary to take advantage of that pressure.
The options outside of Murphy have questions. Rodgers had limited opportunities in Philadelphia, Okudah has bounced around since being a top-five pick in the draft and Mekhi Blackmon is coming off an ACL injury.
Cam Bynum's departure gives pause in the safety room as well. Harrison Smith is 36 years old and Theo Jackson is unproven.
If things go south, the secondary could drag this defense into a much worse unit than last year.
New England Patriots
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Free-Agent Spending Spree Pays Immediate Dividends
New England probably had the worst overall roster in the league last season. Fortunately, they had the free-agent dollars to upgrade a lot of spots.
Milton Williams and Harold Landry III were brought in to immediately bolster the pass rush. Carlton Davis gives them a legitimate veteran to play across from Christian Gonzalez at cornerback.
The Pats defense was a better collection of talent than the offense already. Now they have the tools to be in the top 10 if Vrabel can bring back "The Patriot Way" in his first season as head coach.
Worst-Case Scenario: Free Agents Fizzle and There's No Bump From Vrabel
The last time the Patriots went on a free-agent spending frenzy, it didn't go well. They were among the top spends in 2021 and it yielded one 10-7 season and few long-term benefits.
Williams is the kind of free agent who should pay off. He's just hitting his prime and plays a critical position. However, there's a chance Landry and Davis don't make the kind of impact the Patriots are paying for.
If that's the case then the upside in New England is harder to find.
The Pats didn't spend a draft pick on a defensive player until the third day of the draft. If Landry and Williams don't transform the pass rush, there's not as much reason to believe they can be that much better than last year.
New Orleans Saints
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Brandon Staley Proves Himself as Elite Defensive Mind
The Saints have questions at all three levels of the defense. That makes the guy in charge of answers pivotal for the coming season.
In the Saints case, that's Brandon Staley. The former Chargers head coach was hailed as a defensive genius after his brief stint as the Rams defensive coordinator, but that hasn't aged well. His stock took an even bigger hit when the Chargers turned things around the first year he was gone.
Staley has an opportunity to again prove himself as a coordinator, though. There's some potential to be unearthed by the right coach. Chase Young, Bryan Bresee and Kool-Aid McKinstry are all past first-round picks who could take a step.
Tyrann Mathieu, Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan are all veterans who might have one good season left. If Staley can maximize their talents, they could be respectable.
Worst-Case Scenario: Last Year's Decline Becomes a Free Fall
Up until 2024, the Saints enjoyed top-10 scoring defenses in four consecutive seasons. The Dennis Allen years ended ugly, but they were still marked by elite defenses.
That changed last season. The Saints finished 19th in scoring and 30th in yards allowed. A lot of that had to do with their older players finally taking a step back. Jordan and Mathieu clearly showed their age, and young players like Young didn't pick up the slack.
It's not hard to see the downward trend continue if Staley doesn't find a way to rejuvenate the unit. Unfortunately, there isn't much room to fall and the worst-case scenario could see them flirting with the bottom of important metrics.
New York Giants
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Biggest Need: Linebacker
Best-Case Scenario: Abdul Carter Pushes Giants Defensive Front to Top of League
The Giants have watched the Eagles put together some dominant defenses over the last few years by stacking pass-rushing talent. Now it might be their turn.
Kayvon Thibodeaux is going to be at the center of trade speculation, but having the trio of him, Brian Burns and first-round pick Abdul Carter could make the Giants special up front. The ability to rotate those three and move them around with Dexter Lawrence II pushing the pocket on the inside.
If everything comes together, it isn't hard to see the Giants being a top-five unit in sacks. That kind of pressure could help a new-look secondary that now includes Jevon Holland and Paulson Adebo.
A dominant pass rush and upgrades in the secondary give this defense a top-five ceiling.
Worst-Case Scenario: They Still Can't Stop the Run and Carter Takes Time to Acclimate
There's no denying the Giants have the potential for a game-wrecking defensive line. There's also some potential for plenty of frustrations along the way.
As B/R scout Matt Holder noted in Carter's scouting report, he's still a raw player on the edge. He didn't become a full-time edge-rusher until his final year at Penn State, so he's still working on the nuances of the position.
Part of that process will also be learning how to set the edge against NFL offenses. The Giants were in the bottom-third of the league in rushing defense. The Giants are making a bet that rookie Darius Alexander and free-agent signee Roy Robertson-Harris will be enough to fix the issue.
If they aren't, it's going to be hard for the Giants to get teams in pure passing situations for their pass rush to have success.
New York Jets
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Biggest Need: Interior Defensive Line
Best-Case Scenario: New Coaching Staff Ignites Young Core
Everything about the Jets 2025 season is about building a strong foundation with Aaron Glenn as the new head coach. That includes a defense that has two stars in Quinnen Williams and a few developing difference-makers.
Bringing back Jamien Sherwood gives them familiarity in the middle. He pairs well with Quincy Williams.
Jermaine Johnson II and Will McDonald IV haven't quite lived up to their billing as former first-round picks, but they've shown flashes. If they can become consistent then Glenn has an interesting group that could flirt with the top 10.
Worst-Case Scenario: Aaron Glenn Needs a Long Runway to Execute His Vision
This feels like a good time to remember that the Lions were 31st and 28th in scoring defense in Aaron Glenn's first two seasons at defensive coordinator.
It wasn't until the Lions got serious about upgrading their cornerback room that Glenn was able to run his defense. Making an investment at the cornerback position allowed him to run more man defense and be more aggressive.
Fortunately, Glenn inherits one of the best corners in the game in Sauce Gardner. The options outside of him cast some doubt on what Glenn will be able to do in Year 1, though.
D.J. Reed wouldn't have been able to run a lot of man, but it's fair to wonder if Brandon Stephens or rookie Azareye'h Thomas will give Glenn freedom either.
That could result in a frustrating season for a defense that will want to get back in the top 10.
Philadelphia Eagles
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Biggest Need: Interior Defensive Line
Best-Case Scenario: Championship Defense Keeps Rolling Despite Offseason Losses
It's a testament to the incredible depth that Howie Roseman has built that the Eagles landed at the No. 2 spot in our post-draft defensive power rankings.
Sure, the unit just won a Super Bowl, but they also lost Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Avonte Maddox.
A dramatic downturn would be surprising given the returning talent, though. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean make it easy to like the secondary while Jalen Carter could be the best interior defensive lineman in the league next season.
The Eagles are somehow both dominant and young. The ingredients are there to bonce again field a championship-caliber defense.
Worst-Case Scenario: Jalen Carter Can't Do It All Himself and the Secondary Takes a Step Back
Mitchell and DeJean look like the foundation of the secondary for years to come after stellar rookie campaigns. But it's also much easier to look good in the defensive backfield when the front is excellent.
The Eagles defensive line was eighth in pass-rush win percentage and third in run stop win percentage. It's not hard to see those numbers take a step back without Sweat and Williams next season.
Players like Jalyx Hunt and Moro Ojomo will have to step up their game. The Eagles have typically done a good job of getting those types of players ready.
If they fail to do that this time there will be a dip in production.
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: Darius Slay Has One More Prime Year and Next Generation Emerges
Few franchises are as synonymous with great defense as the Pittsburgh Steelers. For that tradition to continue, there are a number of young defenders who need to show growth this season.
First-round pick Derrick Harmon and Keeanu Benton need to show that the interior defensive line will be elite when Cameron Heyward eventually retires. Seeing second-year 'backer Payton Wilson come alongside Patrick Queen would mean the Steelers aren't just well-position for 2025, but the next several seasons at the position.
Add in Darius Slay solving the problem of outside corner across from Joey Porter Jr. and the Steelers could easily be a top 10 unit.
Worst-Case Scenario: Darius Slay's Decline Means Secondary is Subpar...Again
The Steelers didn't have issues stopping the run last season. The pass-rush was good when Alex Highsmith was healthy enough to be T.J. Watt's sidekick.
The secondary was the problem. Specifically, the Steelers inability to find an outside corner to pair with Joey Porter Jr. led to inconsistency in coverage.
Signing Darius Slay could bring an end to the issue. However, he's 34 years old and already playing well above what's expected for a player his age at this position.
If Slay hits the age cliff then the Steelers are left with the same questions as they had last season. The floor is never super low in Pittsburgh, but a stellar front seven paired with a struggling secondary would likely see them somewhere toward the bottom of the league's middle class.
San Francisco 49ers
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: 2025 Draft Class Offers Instant Impact
The 49ers felt the impact of balancing the checkbook this offseason. Brock Purdy's mega extension came at the cost of letting several key contributors walk in free agency and trades.
On defense, that means letting players like Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward and Darius Floyd go.
It also means that drafting well is going to start becoming a non-negotiable for the Niners. Getting big contributions out of first-round pick Mykel Williams, second-round pick Alfred Collins and third-round pick Nick Martin would be a great start.
A healthy Nick Bosa and Fred Warner could help the Niners front rebound in a big way if the rookie are ready to play.
Worst-Case Scenario: Nick Bosa Declines, Talent Exodus Too Much to Overcome
There's no denying that the Niners roster is in the middle of a transition. Robert Saleh is returning as defensive coordinator after four years, but he's coming back to a much different roster.
The secondary has plenty of questions. Jason Pinnock and Richie Grant will get a shot to contribute at safety as the team tries to replace Hufanga.
That, combined with an unproven cornerback room, could lead to a leaky secondary.
That's going to put a lot of pressure on the proven veterans to help carry a transitioning unit. That's a concern with Nick Bosa. He missed three games with a hip injury last season and his production has been on a downturn in each of the last two seasons.
If Bosa doesn't bounce back to being one of the league's best pass-rushers and Mykel Williams or Bryce Huff can't become a reliable No. 2 then the floor is actually pretty low in San Francisco.
Seattle Seahawks
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Biggest Need: Cornerback
Best-Case Scenario: Mike Macdonald Creates a Top Five Defense In Second Season
Mike Macdonald earned the Seahawks head coaching gig by establishing himself as one of the best defensive minds in the league. That was evident in his first year with Seattle, taking a group that doesn't have a real superstar and finishing just outside the top 10 in most metrics.
Seattle doesn't have a prototypical build. Its best players are a defensive tackle (Leonard Williams) and a nickel (Devon Witherspoon). Then again, they don't have many players in the lineup who are objectively bad starters.
The result is a unit that could play much better than the sum of its parts. If rookie Nick Emmanwori is able to become something like a lite version of Kyle Hamilton than Macdonald could have just enough weaponry to get this group playing even better than they did last season.
That could mean skipping from top ten defense right to the top five.
Worst-Case Scenario: Lack of Star Power Caps Defense's Ceiling
The Seahawks are a really interesting exercise in roster construction. Witherspoon is an elite slot corner and Leonard Williams is just a cut below Chris Jones in terms of disruptive defensive tackles.
At what point are they just as valuable as stars who play on the outside of their respective positions?
That's a question that determines the ceiling for the group in Seattle.
Macdonald has earned the benefit of the doubt at this point. The Seahawks are at least going to field an above-average defense. The question is whether they can truly break into the top five of the league.
That would require the collection of edge-rushers, DeMarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe would have to become even more potent while Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen play well enough on the outside to justify keeping Witherspoon inside.
If they don't, this team might be stuck on the outside of the top 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Pass Rush Develops with Less Reliance on Blitzing
The Bucs were proficient at getting after the quarterback last season. The problem is that they had to be among the league leaders in blitzing to do it. They were ninth in pressure percentage, but they had to blitz 34.2 percent of the time to do it.
Todd Bowles is always going to be aggressive as a defensive play-caller, but some of their worst defensive performances came against offenses that had answers for blitz packages.
Hitting on the Haason Reddick pick would give Tampa another legitimate pass-rusher. He had just one sack with New York last season, but he had 27 in the 2022 and 2023 campaigns.
Reddick joining Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby to create a legitimate pass rush could see the Bucs move from middle-of-the-pack to the top 10.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Elite Run Defense Runs Out and Pass Defense is Even More Exposed
All that blitzing also helped the Bucs run defense last season. Of course, having Vita Vea singlehandedly shutting down the interior helps too. The 6'4", 347-pounder is a unique talent.
He's also 30 years old and nearly impossible to replace if he gets injured. If Vea takes a step back or is unavailable and Reddick isn't able to capture his previous form then Calijah Kancey is going to have to carry a lot of the weight.
The Bucs secondary really needs Antoine Winfield to come back healthy while getting contributions from rookies Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish.
There's a low floor if the defensive front doesn't continue to be an elite run defense while the relatively young secondary doesn't take a step forward.
Tennessee Titans
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Dennard Wilson Shows He Can Get Defense Going in Right Direction
If we're being honest, it's hard to see a path where the Titans defense is even in the top-third of the league defensively. A weak pass-rushing unit lost Harold Landry III and will look to replace him with Dre'Mont Jones and second-round pick Oluwafemi Oladejo.
The secondary has a better chance to be good.
L'Jarius Sneed comes back after missing all but five games last season. They traded for him to be their shutdown corner last season and he should free up Dennard Wilson to be more diverse with coverages next season.
The biggest indicator of success for the Titans is whether there's enough progress to feel good about Dennard Wilson as defensive coordinator in 2026. That would give them a chance to continue to build a young defense that could really compete in a year.
Worst-Case Scenario: Sneed's Return Doesn't Help Secondary and Pass Rush Doesn't Materialize
Jeffery Simmons and L'Jarius Sneed are set to be the two highest-paid defenders on the Titans roster through the 2027 season. This defense still feels like a rebuilding project so it's crucial they get good season out of their building blocks.
It's pretty easy to feel good about Simmons. He was ranked eighth among all interior defenders graded by PFF last season, but we still haven't seen Sneed play to his Kansas City form in Tennessee yet.
If Sneed can be among the league's best corners and Simmons continues to wreak havoc on the inside then Wilson will have a good core to build around.
But if Sneed struggles, the secondary isn't likely to hold up and the pass-rush isn't prepared to make life easier on the back end. This floor is really low and Wilson's coaching ability will be tested.
Washington Commanders
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Biggest Need: Edge-Rusher
Best-Case Scenario: Defense Is Good Enough to Protect a Lead
There's good news and bad news for the Commanders defense going into the 2025 season. The bad news is they didn't do much on paper to fix a defense that was 29th in rushing defense.
The good news is the offense should be good enough that teams are going to have to throw the ball to keep up. Jayden Daniels has changed the entire conversation around the Commanders.
Last year, they were able to put up a respectable 42 sacks, but only had seven interceptions. They added Trey Amos in the draft and signed Jonathan Jones to bolster the cornerback room and added Will Harris at safety.
In the best-case scenario, that's enough talent for Dan Quinn to work some magic and the Commanders can at least complement a dynamic offense.
Worst-Case Scenario: Teams Are Able to Run the Ball and Follow Eagles Blueprint
There are going to be a lot of teams trying to figure out how to stop Daniels. There are also a lot of teams who are going to surmise that the best way is to keep him off the field.
The Commanders' inability to stop the run was on full display when they gave up 55 points to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. Philadelphia had 36 carries for 229 yards an seven touchdowns on its way to the Super Bowl.
The knee-jerk reaction to that would be that no one else in the league has Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. But Will Shipley Jr. chipped in another 77 yards rushing on just four carries.
Bobby Wagner is another year older and adding Javon Kinlaw and Eddie Goldman were the most notable moves they made to fix the run defense. It's an Achilles heel that could keep the unit from getting to the middle of the pack.
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