Why Capitals-Hurricanes Series Could be the Best of the 2nd Round

In arguably the most predictable outcome of the first round, the first and second seeds from the Metropolitan Division are facing off in Round 2.

The top-seeded Washington Capitals handled the Montreal Canadiens in five games, and the No. 2 Hurricanes had a gentleman's sweep of their own against the ailing Devils. 

The Hurricanes and the Capitals have done exactly what they needed to do up to this point, but neither ran into much trouble on their way.

Now the real challenge begins as the top two teams in the Metropolitan battle it out for a ticket to the Eastern Conference Final.

There’s a lot on the line all around, as the 'Canes look to prove they can return to the Eastern Conference Final and actually win a game for the first time since 2006, while the Capitals look to top off Alex Ovechkin’s record-breaking season with a Cup.

First, though, someone's got to win this second-round series. It won't be easy.

Head-to-Head

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Washington Capitals: 1st in Metropolitan Division, 111 points, defeated Montreal in Round 1 (4-1)

Carolina Hurricanes: 2nd in Metropolitan Division, 99 points, defeated NJD in Round 1 (4-1)

Regular-season matchup: 

Capitals: 2-2-0

Hurricanes: 2-1-1

The Hurricanes held up well against the Presidents' Trophy runners-up in the regular season, snagging two wins and a loser point, but the matchup was just as close as it's anticipated to be in the playoffs.

The 'Canes had the statistical edge in the regular-season matchup, including a 5-1 win which the Capitals followed up the next week with a shootout win. 

Carolina did what it does best against the Capitals, ending the regular-season series with the shot advantage and the goal advantage over Washington. 

Both teams are coming into their playoff matchup after handling lesser opponents. The Hurricanes used their shot-heavy, relentless forecheck to grind the Devils down, while the Capitals scored perfect, timely goals and successfully relied on top-six key players to get the job done.

Both teams boast impressive goaltending stats: The Canes' goals against average leads all playoff teams at 2.20, while the Caps' is tied for second at 2.40.

Top Five Scorers

Washington

Dylan Strome, 9 points
Alex Ovechkin, 5 points
Connor McMichael, 5 points
Tom Wilson, 5 points
Anthony Beauvilier, 5 points

Carolina

Sebastian Aho, 8 points
Andrei Svechnikov, 6 points
Seth Jarvis, 5 points
Jackson Blake, 4 points
Shayne Gostisbehere, 4 points

The Context

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This will be the second time in NHL history the Capitals and the Hurricanes meet in the playoffs. And if it's anything like their first meeting in 2019, you should get your popcorn out.

Last time around, the underdog Hurricanes won the first-round matchup in Game 7 double overtime. It was a physical series in which their shot volume and ability to possess the puck eventually won out by a matter of inches.

This time around, we've got some of the familiar faces returning such as Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson. We've also got new potential X-factors like Seth Jarvis and Connor McMichael.

Speaking of McMichael, Hurricanes defenseman Jalen Chatfield bodyslammed him earlier this season and chaos ensued. And if anyone in this league doesn't forget, it's Wilson. Expect physicality and heightened intensity from the jump.

The Hurricanes are looking to prove they can advance to the Eastern Conference Final and actually win a game, and the Capitals are trying to win one more Cup in the Ovechkin era. These are hungry teams who have years of bad blood and much to prove all around.

How Carolina Wins

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Is Freddie Andersen 100 percent healthy? He was in the starter's crease for Friday's practice after sustaining a Game 4 injury. And if you're a Hurricanes fan, you'd better hope he is good to go for Game 1.

The 35-year-old netminder was off to a league-leading playoff start before things went awry, with 4.8 goals saved above expected, a .936 save percentage, and a 1.59 goals against average through his 3.5 games.

The Devils weren't exactly drowning him in shots, but their stars had some excellent chances Andersen handled stunningly.

Meanwhile, Pyotr Kochetkov settled in between the pipes by the end of Game 5, but not before the Devils let three goals past him at the beginning of the game. These Capitals will not be surrendering a three-goal lead, so a healthy Andersen is key No. 1 for the Hurricanes.

The Capitals didn't capitalize on most of their power plays with a 23.1 conversation rate, but true to form they made it happen when it counted. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes enter this series perfect on the penalty kill, holding the Devils to 0 goals through 15 power-play opportunities. 

If the Hurricanes can keep up the penalty-killing excellence, they can put a dent in the opportunistic Capitals. Then again, we all know where Alex Ovechkin lives and it hasn't stopped him from breaking any records. 

Maybe it's about resiliency for Carolina. You know you will stop four out of five power plays from striking, so when the fifth comes, just get back up and keep grinding at even strength. 

How Washington Wins

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Are your best players going to continue finding the magic? This has been the question for the Capitals the entire season given their high shooting percentages and analytics that don't always impress the current models.

So far, the answer has been yes, Washington's sustainability has held up. The Capitals ended the regular season No. 2 leaguewide in scoring, and they enter Round 2 averaging 3.6 goals per game. 

The Presidents' Trophy runners-up are fast, big, high-scoring and clutch with some pretty solid goaltending while they're at it. They've got Cup-winning veterans, young budding stars, one of the most annoyingly effective pests in the game and the all-time goal scorer. 

It’s hard to keep perfection up in the best league in the world, though, and it will be even harder against one of the eight best teams left standing.

When it comes to the Capitals, they will win if they continue to avoid regression. It's simple, but in a seven-game series against a grinder of an opponent like the Hurricanes, it's not going to be easy.

Prediction

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This is one of the most difficult series in recent memory to predict.

You've got two different styles of play that have been successful for each team up until now, and you've got two solid cores that were not quite tested by their first-round opponents. 

Which team will force the other to play the game their way? The oddsmakers and analysts favor the Hurricanes because they play an overall game more predictable, and more conducive to forcing the other team to surrender.

These Capitals aren't just any other team, though. They've silenced the critics at every turn, have yet to struggle, and Alex Ovechkin looks like he's having the time of his life.

Prediction: Capitals in 7