Home Run Derby 2015: Full Bracket, Key Stats and Predictions for All-Star Event

Major League Baseball has created drama for the 2015 Home Run Derby by completely upending the format, making power more important than ever. 

That sounds silly in a power-hitting event, but the new rules actually reward home runs in multiple ways now. It shouldn't be a problem for the competitors—which include Albert Pujols, Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson, Joc Pederson, Manny Machado, Anthony Rizzo, Prince Fielder and Kris Bryant—to launch balls over the fence.

According to Paul Casella of MLB.com, rounds are now timed for five minutes, with the clock starting after the first pitch. It will run continuously until the final minute, at which point it will stop for any home run hit without starting again until a non-homer is hit or the batter swings and misses. 

There's also the incentive for extra time, as players will get an additional minute if they hit at least two home runs 420 feet and/or 30 seconds if they hit one homer 475 feet. 

This year's competitors have been placed in a bracket format, seeded by the number of home runs they have hit during the regular season. Here's the official lineup, via MLB Public Relations on Twitter:

Key Stats to Know

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

With the format placing an emphasis on distance, the most obvious stat to look at for the field is average true home run distance. This is the length a ball would have traveled if you took away all of the obstructions (nets, bleachers, etc.).

Even though all home runs are special, some are more majestic than others. Mark McGwire's 62nd home run in 1998 was special at the time for its significance, but at 341 feet, it was also his shortest of that season. 

So here's the average true home run distance for all eight players in the Home Run Derby field:

Player	Avg. True Distance (Feet)	Season HR
Joc Pederson	430.5	20
Prince Fielder	411.1	13
Josh Donaldson	408.1	21
Kris Bryant	406.9	12
Anthony Rizzo	402.1	16
Albert Pujols	399.6	26
Todd Frazier	398.4	25
Manny Machado	387.3	19

Pederson has a huge edge in this category, with no one else within 19 feet of his true distance. This isn't by accident, either. 

Here's visual evidence of what Pederson was able to do in a game against the Colorado Rockies earlier this season, via MLB.com:

Playing in the thin Colorado air may help balls travel, but it's hard to luck your way into two 470-foot home runs. Balls have been flying out of Great American Ball Park at the fourth-highest rate of any MLB stadium this year (1.414 per game), per ESPN.com, ahead of Coors Field (1.246). 

Another number to look at when factoring in which players will fare best in the derby is exit velocity, or the speed at which a ball comes off the bat. Simple physics says the harder a ball is hit, the more likely it will stay in the air long enough to go over the fence. 

Player	Avg. Exit Velocity (MPH)
Joc Pederson	93.63
Prince Fielder	93.31
Josh Donaldson	92.68
Albert Pujols	92.30
Manny Machado	92.25
Todd Frazier	91.26
Kris Bryant	89.26
Anthony Rizzo	88.51

Not surprisingly, the top three names in average exit velocity are also the same as the true home run distance leaders. Pederson, Fielder and Donaldson have such quick bats through the zone that it's a surprise when they don't hit a ball hard. 

Yet these certainly don't guarantee a Pederson victory, though ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockcroft did offer a nugget about Great American Ball Park before the season that is of interest to the Dodgers outfielder, Fielder and Rizzo. 

"It was most favorable for left-handers, thanks to its 325-foot distance down the right-field line and 370 to right-center, even if the ballpark is merely above average for run scoring," Cockcroft wrote. 

Dimensions can play a critical role in the outcome of a Home Run Derby. No one is going to confuse Great American Ball Park with Petco Park, but the shorter distance to right field can help a player like Rizzo who doesn't have the same kind of power and velocity as others in the field. 

Prediction

Even with all the talk of lefties having advantages and Pederson's impressive numbers, two right-handed hitters keep giving me pause when it comes to making an official prediction. 

Frazier is a Home Run Derby veteran, making his second consecutive appearance in the event after finishing second to Yoenis Cespedes in 2014. That run was odd because he only hit one homer in the semifinals, but Giancarlo Stanton put up a bagel, allowing the Reds star to advance. 

Playing in his home park, Frazier knows what this field has to offer and where the ball will take off in the power alleys. 

Of course, Stanton's zero in the semifinals last year proves that even the best power hitters are vulnerable to a bad stretch. 

Bryant is the other right-handed hitter to keep an eye on because his raw power is about as good as anyone not named Stanton or Bryce Harper. The Chicago Cubs rookie has shown some of that pop in the big leagues already with 12 homers and a .478 slugging percentage. 

In the minors, Bryant's power came out in full force with 55 homers in 648 at-bats. He's hitting in a controlled environment and will be able to flick his wrists to drive the ball out in Cincinnati. 

Yet even with all of that, Pederson and Fielder are hard to overlook. Fielder has won this event two times in his career (2009, 2012), with the latter coming in spacious Kauffman Stadium, so he's got the power to win in any environment. 

Pederson still gets the edge simply because every home run he has hit this year has been majestic. He's got a smooth, controlled left-handed swing and the power to drive balls out to any field.