5 Prospects Who Could Be Surprise 1st-Round Picks in the 2025 NFL Draft

NFL draft day is here.

It appears from all indications that Miami quarterback Cam Ward will be the first draft pick Thursday evening. After that? Anyone who says they know with any certainty should be picking Mega Millions numbers instead of writing mock drafts.

That’s the thing with mocks. They are entertaining and wildly popular, but most of them won’t get half of Round 1 right. More will get less than 10 picks right than more than 20. There will be trades that shake things up, and the reality is that most draftniks don't think like general managers.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing, though.

There will also be players taken in the first round whose NFL dream will start with an earlier phone call than even they expected.

I’ve never been averse to being wrong about draft picks, either, so into the fray we go one last time with the best bets to be surprise Round 1 selections.

QB Tyler Shough, Louisville

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Tyler Shough has been kicking around college football for a while now. He played over 2,000 snaps at the collegiate level and is already 25 years old. He also has a significant injury history.

Given those factors, the Louisville product ranks outside the Top 100 on Bleacher Report's most recent 2025 Draft Big Board. But his arm talent and experience could see him drafted much earlier than that, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN:

"There are teams that actually have Shough rated as their top quarterback in this draft. The concern is that, even at his age, he has only started one full season across his seven at Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville, though he did make 32 career starts. He could figure into the back part of Round 1 or possibly into Round 2.

"There are a group of teams after Tennessee that would like to address quarterback early, including the Browns, Giants, Saints and Steelers. Cleveland also happens to own the ever-valuable No. 33 pick, the first pick at the top of Round 2, which is why the Giants or Saints could explore trading back into Round 1 to jump them. Shough is likely to land on one of these quarterback-needy teams."

It's not just Schefter, either. Bruce Feldman of The Athletic wrote that at least one NFL passing game coordinator called Shough the most pro-ready quarterback in the class.

"He's probably the most pro-ready to go in and run an offense and be able to operate," they said. "Some people bring up his age—nope, don't care. This isn't baseball, where you're drafting 18-year-olds. He's athletic. He's a good interview. Smart. Arm talent is good."

RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It's no secret that the running back position has become devalued in the draft in recent years. In 2024, the first RB didn't come off the board until pick No. 46. The last time three running backs were drafted in the first round was 2018.

There's zero doubt Boise State's Ashton Jeanty will be a first-round pick, likely inside the top 10. North Carolina's Omarion Hampton is also considered to be a first-round pick.

However, Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz of USA Today believes another back could crash the party: Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson:

"At 5'10" and 202 pounds, Henderson doesn't figure to occupy the bell-cow role that Jeanty and Hampton will. But Henderson has serious straight-line explosiveness, and teams have shown they'll pay a premium for players capable of igniting big plays. What might put him over the top, however, is his experience and savvy in the passing game, as he's arguably this class' premier back in pass protection and also a major threat to split out wide as a receiver. He would be an intriguing option for the Denver Broncos (No. 20) given Sean Payton's fixation on backs who can create mismatches in the passing game, though he could also step in as the dynamic backfield presence the Washington Commanders (No. 29) have been seeking to complement Brian Robinson Jr."

Henderson had some durability issues at Ohio State, and he's a little undersized. But this writer believes he has a better chance of being a star in the NFL than Hampton.

That's right, I said it.

OT Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon

Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images

Oregon offensive tackle Josh Conerly Jr. is considered by most at best a marginal first-round pick.

On Bleacher Report’s final NFL Draft Big Board, the 6'5", 311-pounder checked in at No. 40. In B/R's most recent mock draft, he was drafted at No. 43 by the San Francisco 49ers. He wasn't a first-rounder in Peter Schrager's lone draft of the offseason for ESPN.

However, there are those who believe the 21-year-old could go a lot higher than many expect.

In fact, Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda noted he could be a top-10 pick:

"Josh Conerly Jr. of Oregon could end up being chosen earlier than most predict, and the expected range for the junior is picks 10 to 25. And while the 10th pick, presently held by the Chicago Bears, seems early, I'm told it is a real possibility. The Bears are looking for a blocker who can play guard or tackle, and that perfectly describes Conerly. He's presently the No. 1 guard on my board, yet many if not most teams project him at tackle.

"I'm told the Bears not only like his skill on the field, but they became enamored with Conerly when he visited the franchise. The three-year starter came across as a seasoned veteran and very professional."

Conerly being drafted inside the top 10 would be one of the more jaw-dropping picks of Round 1, but offensive tackle is one of the most valuable positions in the draft, and he is arguably one of the more NFL-ready players at that spot.

Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA

Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Off-ball linebacker isn't an especially high-value position in the NFL draft.

There is just one true off-ball LB widely regarded as a Round 1 prospect in Alabama's Jihaad Campbell, and even he (like Georgia's Jalon Walker) is something of a hybrid edge-rusher/linebacker a la Micah Parsons entering the NFL.

UCLA's Carson Schwesinger is a true linebacker. He's a 6’2” 242-pounder with the size to play inside and the range to stay on the field in passing sub-packages.

Despite his not-inconsiderable talent and collegiate production, Bleacher Report's latest mock has him going late in Round 2 to the Buffalo Bills.

However, the Bills aren't the only team picking at the back of the round who could use a boost at the position, and that need coupled with a dearth of three-down talents could bump Schwesinger up the board.

Tom Pelissero of NFL.com wrote:

"A onetime walk-on at UCLA, Schwesinger led all FBS players with 90 solo tackles and was a Butkus Award finalist last season, his first as a starter. He can run, cover and play all three downs. His instincts and character are pluses.

"Schwesinger isn't as versatile as Alabama's Jihaad Campbell, who also has flashed edge-rush ability. But with several teams near the bottom of Round 1 needing an off-ball linebacker, Schwesinger could find his NFL home sooner than many expect."

This would indeed be something of a surprise—just one off-ball linebacker has been selected in Round 1 of the last two drafts.

However, there are a handful of teams between 20 and 32 that could use an inside linebacker, and Schwesinger is an NFL-ready player who can contribute from the jump.

Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss

Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

There's a solid class of cornerback prospects in this year's draft, headlined by Colorado phenom Travis Hunter.

After Hunter, the general consensus is that Jahdae Barron of Texas, Will Johnson of Michigan and Maxwell Hairston of Kentucky are all considered good bets to join him in Round 1.

Once Day 2 gets underway, a long list of cover men will undoubtedly be selected.

However, Joseph Acosta of SB Nation believes Ole Miss cornerback Trey Amos could crash the Round 1 party:

"After Travis Hunter, Jahdae Barron, Will Johnson and Maxwell Hairston come off the board, the next guy up could be anyone. If there's a CB after those top guys that I think will come off sooner than believed, it's Amos. He's got enough speed, but in Cover 2 or quarters coverage he's physical and wants to disrupt guys at the line of scrimmage. He's also got a clean bill of health and ran fast at the combine, two things that'll work in his favor. With plenty of teams near the end of the first round needing help at cornerback, his physicality and ball skills underneath could be useful."

B/R's Cory Giddings called the 6'1", 195-pounder "a mid-round pick with the potential to develop into a versatile starter."

But the B/R scout also compared Amos to a quality NFL starter in Carlton Davis of the New England Patriots, and Bleacher Report has the Vikings trading up to select Amos with the first pick of Round 2.

So, cracking the first-round barrier may not be that big a surprise after all.