Why Roger Federer Should Be the Favorite to Win Wimbledon

The top three seeds have advanced to the semifinals at Wimbledon, setting things up for an exciting finish. Choosing a favorite among Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Richard Gasquet is a difficult task, but despite his age and three-year Grand Slam slump, it’s Federer who is the one to beat.

At 33 years old, Federer is the oldest of the four semifinalists, but you wouldn’t know that based on his play in this tournament. Entering his quarterfinal match against Gilles Simon, Federer had spent a total of six hours and 16 minutes of playing time, the fewest among all quarterfinalists, and he had only lost one set.

Despite two rain stoppages, Federer again made quick work of Simon in their quarterfinal match with a 6-3, 7-5, 6-2 win.

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

The second rain delay came in the second set with Federer serving with a 6-5 lead. He was up 15-0 in the game when the delay began. When play resumed, he finished Simon off with three straight aces.

Prior to this match, Federer had won 87 percent of his first serves and 69 percent of his second serves, both tops in the tournament. He’s been so effective with his serve lately that, until Simon broke his serve in the second set, Federer had held serve in 116 consecutive games.

Federer had 11 aces against Simon and kept the Frenchman on his heels with his first serve for most of the match. This was exemplified in the match-clinching point when Federer kept Simon off balance with a strong first serve and then immediately charged the net to take control of the rally.

Federer will make his 10th career trip to the semifinals, and he is 9-0 all time. With just one service break to this point, Federer’s serve is as strong as it has ever been at Wimbledon, a good sign that he is as close to peak form as he’s been in years.

Standing in Federer’s way of the final is Britain’s favorite son—Andy Murray. Murray famously defeated Federer to win the 2012 Olympic gold medal at Wimbledon, but Federer holds a slight advantage over Murray in ATP play.

	Overall	Grand Slam Matches
Federer’s record vs. Murray	12-11	4-1

Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Federer made such quick work of Simon despite being more mistake-prone than he had been in earlier rounds. In addition to having his serve broken for the first time, Federer had his lowest percentage of first serve points won in his last three matches.

	% First Serve Points Won	Winners	Unforced Errors
Federer vs. Groth	90 percent (60/67)	54	8
Federer vs. Bautista Agut	92 percent (35/38)	38	12
Federer vs. Simon	80 percent (44/55)	36	22

(Match stats for Federer vs. Groth are from ESPN. Stats from Federer vs. Bautista Agut and Federer vs. Simon are from the Telegraph.)

The 22 unforced errors are concerning. A player of Murray’s caliber will likely take better advantage than Simon was able to. But Federer is still one of the most fundamentally sound players in the game and should be expected to clean up those mistakes in the next round.

After falling short against Djokovic in a five-set thriller in last year’s final, Federer bristled at talk of his decline. When asked if it would be his last appearance in a Wimbledon final, his response was curt.

“You could have asked me that question in 2003,” Federer said, referencing his first Wimbledon title, according to the Guardian. “Whatever it is, you’ve just got to wait and see. Maybe there’s much more to come.”

Federer is now two wins away from redeeming last year’s defeat. And considering his current form, there are plenty of reasons to believe he won’t fall short this time.