Ranking the No. 1 NFL Draft Picks from Last 25 Years

The first round of the 2026 NFL draft is complete. As pretty much everyone expected, the Las Vegas Raiders took Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza No. 1 overall.

As the reigning Heisman winner and national champion, Mendoza is about as much of a sure thing as there is in the 2026 class. However, history has shown that being a safe pick and going first overall doesn't guarantee pro success.

Here, we'll examine every No. 1 overall pick taken in the NFL draft over the past 25 years and rank them based on their pro performances, consistency, individual accolades, draft-day alternatives and any relevant player-specific factors.

25. QB JaMarcus Russell (2007)

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Raiders fans have plenty of fond memories of the team's storied time in Oakland, but they'd likely rather just forget about the JaMarcus Russell era.

There may have been bigger draft busts than Russell in recent years. Brady Quinn was also a first-round pick in 2007 and made fewer NFL starts than Russell, and Johnny Manziel's career was an unmitigated disaster.

However, Russell stands as proof that taking a talented college player with the No. 1 overall pick won't necessarily save a franchise.

The LSU product had an impressive college career. He routinely flashed his elite arm talent and was both a first-team All-SEC selection and the Manning Award winner in 2006. But his talent wasn't enough to yield NFL success.

A poor work ethic may have stood between Russell and his NFL ceiling.

Russell made 25 starts over three seasons with the Raiders, recorded just seven wins and posted a career 65.2 passer rating. Unlike most former first-round picks, he never received a second opportunity with a new team.

To be fair to the Raiders, the 2007 draft didn't produce a franchise-caliber quarterback. By taking Russell, however, they passed on Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas Patrick Willis and Darrelle Revis, four players who are already in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

24. QB David Carr (2002)

AP Photo/Mike Longo

In a lot of ways, it feels almost unfair to rank quarterback David Carr this low. The Fresno State product landed with the Houston Texans in their first year as an expansion team. Carr's early supporting cast was not good, to put it mildly.

As a rookie, Carr was sacked 76 times, setting an NFL record that still stands more than two decades—and one regular-season expansion—later. He was sacked just 15 times in his second season, but he led the NFL with 49 and 68 sacks in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

The reality is that Carr was never really given a fair chance to succeed with the team that drafted him, and he only got a brief opportunity with the Carolina Panthers in 2007 before he suffered a back injury.

While Carr did lead the NFL in completion percentage (68.3) during his final season with the Texans, he had a very underwhelming career as a starter overall. He went 23-56 in 79 starts, threw 65 touchdowns, had 71 interceptions and finished his career with a 74.9 passer rating.

It's hard to fault the Texans, who were a new team and needed a franchise quarterback. However, by taking Carr first overall, they passed on Hall of Famers Julius Peppers and Ed Reed.

23. QB Sam Bradford (2010)

AP Photo/LM Otero

How much should we knock a player for struggling to stay healthy? That's a very relevant question when it comes to 2010 first overall pick Sam Bradford.

The then-St. Louis Rams needed a signal-caller, and Bradford was an easy choice. The Oklahoma product was a Heisman Trophy winner with archetypal size (6'4", 224 lbs) and traits. However, he also battled AC joint injuries in his throwing shoulder, which led to season-ending surgery in his final year before the draft.

In the NFL, Bradford was further plagued by injuries, including a pair of torn ACLs. When healthy, he was a solid starting quarterback in the NFL and undoubtedly the most successful from the 2010 class—with all due respect to Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy.

Bradford was the 2010 Offensive Rookie of the Year. He led the NFL in completion percentage (71.6) with the Minnesota Vikings in 2016, and he started all 83 games in which he appeared.

However, he never hit the highs of Andrew Luck, another promising quarterback with an injury-shortened career.

It's not really fair to call a player a bust because of injuries outside of their control. The knock on the Rams' choice is the fact that legitimate stars such as Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Trent Williams, Eric Berry, Russell Okung and Joe Haden were selected right after Bradford.

22. QB Kyler Murray (2019)

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri, File

Though Kyler Murray was a dynamic quarterback and a Pro Bowler early in his career, it's fair to wonder if the Arizona Cardinals picked the right signal-caller in 2019.

Daniel Jones was the next quarterback selected that year. While his early career was disappointing, he reestablished himself as a solid starter with the Indianapolis Colts this past season.

Murray went in the opposite direction. In fact, it's pretty much been downhill for Murray since his third NFL campaign.

Murray was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and then made the Pro Bowl in his second and third seasons. He also helped the Cardinals reach the postseason in 2021.

Following a torn ACL that impacted his 2022 and 2023 seasons, though, Murray never returned to his early form. He battled a foot injury in 2025 and watched as the Cardinals' offense fared better with journeyman Jacoby Brissett behind center.

Following the 2025 season, the Cardinals swallowed more than $54 million in dead money to cut ties with Murray.

The 28-year-old will now get an opportunity to resurrect his career with the Minnesota Vikings. If he follows in the footsteps of Jones and Sam Darnold, he could be a Pro Bowler once again.

However, Arizona paid for seven seasons with Murray and didn't get a single playoff win to show for it.

21. QB Jameis Winston (2015)

AP Photo/Bob Leverone

While they didn't get the desired results, it's fair to say that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the correct call with Jameis Winston back in 2015.

That class wasn't exactly loaded with perennial Pro Bowlers, though players like Amari Cooper and Brandon Scherff have made multiple all-star appearances.

At quarterback, it's pretty much been Winston and then everyone else. The QB class included Marcus Mariota, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion and Bryce Petty.

Like Mariota, Winston is in the journeyman stage of his career. Neither quarterback earned a second contract from the team that drafted them. But Winston made the Pro Bowl as an alternate after his rookie season and led the NFL with 5,109 passing yards in 2019, though he also led the league with 30 interceptions.

Throwing picks is a habit that Winston hasn't been able to kick, which is why Tampa replaced him with Tom Brady in 2020 and why Winston has only gotten the occasional starting opportunity since.

The Florida State product can still sling it—he threw for 567 yards and two touchdowns in two games last season—but his penchant for picks has prevented him from becoming a reliable full-time starter.

20. QB Bryce Young (2023)

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

Players still on rookie contracts haven't quite played long enough to be considered busts or successful picks. Many of their narratives are still being written.

You can bet plenty of fans were ready to call Alabama product Bryce Young a bust following his first season with the Carolina Panthers, though.

It didn't help that No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud helped the Texans reach the playoffs while being named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Young, meanwhile, went 2-14 as a rookie while throwing 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a 73.7 quarterback rating.

But over the past few seasons, the two quarterbacks have started trending in opposite directions. Stroud hasn't quite replicated his rookie-year success, while Young continues to improve each season.

This past season, the Alabama product posted a career-best 87.8 passer rating while going 8-8 as the starter and leading Carolina to an NFC South title. He then came within a few plays of knocking off the Los Angeles Rams in the postseason.

Young still isn't putting up gaudy numbers, but those may come with time and an improved supporting cast. What the quarterback has produced is a penchant for performing in high-pressure situations. He led the game-winning drive in six of his eight wins in 2025 and delivered four fourth-quarter comebacks.

19. DE Travon Walker (2022)

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

It's not wise to give up on a rookie after just one season. Pass-rusher Travon Walker significantly underwhelmed in his debut campaign in 2022, but he has begun to shift the narrative ever since.

The Georgia product provided the Jacksonville Jaguars with just 3.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss in 2022. But in the three years since, he's tallied 24 sacks, 31 tackles for loss and 47 quarterback hits.

Walker secured a second contract from Jacksonville early in the 2026 offseason.

With that said, Walker was a risky pick in 2022. He was a one-year starter for the Bulldogs, and Jacksonville passed on several safer prospects to take him first overall.

The Detroit Lions took edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson second overall, and he was a Pro Bowler by Year 2. Cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner were also top-five selections who already have Pro Bowls on their resume.

Only time will tell if Walker was the right choice at No. 1. However, he has proven that he isn't a bust.

18. QB Cam Ward (2025)

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Former Houston Oilers quarterback Warren Moon, left, and quarterback Cam Ward

Former Miami quarterback Cam Ward lands toward the middle of this list for somewhat obvious reasons. While he didn't play up to his draft status as a rookie (80.2 quarterback rating), the Tennessee Titans didn't exactly surround him with a great supporting cast.

Tennessee's offensive line was a veritable disaster last season, which led to Ward taking 55 sacks, tied for the most in the league. The Titans' receiving corps wasn't much better, and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo led the team with just 560 receiving yards.

Unsurprisingly, Tennessee fired head coach Brian Callahan early in the season, replacing him with Robert Saleh and a new staff this past offseason.

While one could argue that fellow rookie quarterbacks Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough outperformed Ward during their inaugural campaigns, Ward did show glimpses of an elite ceiling. With good size (6'1⅝", 219 lbs), elite arm talent, and some natural playmaking ability, Ward can still become a star with the right pieces around him.

Ward didn't remain the No. 1 pick when Bleacher Report's Brent Sobleski did a 2025 re-draft in January, but he isn't barrelling toward the bust label just yet.

17. Edge Jadeveon Clowney (2014)

AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith

South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney may have cemented his status as the No. 1 overall pick with his infamous hit of Michigan running back Vincent Smith in the 2013 Outback Bowl. You know which one.

Entering the draft, he appeared to be a generational pass-rusher, though there was plenty of debate about whether he or Khalil Mack was truly the top edge in the class.

The Houston Texans took Clowney with the top pick, and he's carved out a very solid NFL career since. The three-time Pro Bowler never quite developed into an elite sack artist, but he's an incredibly disruptive run defender off the edge and continues to make an impact in his early 30s. He had 8.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss and 10 quarterback hits with the Dallas Cowboys in 2025.

Clowney was far from a bust, especially when compared to the three players taken directly after him: Greg Robinson, Blake Bortles and Sammy Watkins. Of course, No. 1 overall picks are supposed to be special, not solid.

Clowney isn't headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Classmates Mack, Mike Evans and Zack Martin probably are.

16. OT Jake Long (2008)

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

While offensive tackles don't go No. 1 overall often, selecting one can be viewed as the safe choice. The Miami Dolphins decided to go that route in 2008, snagging Michigan's Jake Long to solidify their offensive line.

Early in his career, Long appeared to be a slam-dunk selection. He made the Pro Bowl in each of his first four seasons and was a first-team All-Pro in his third campaign.

Unfortunately, injuries started to hinder Long's career after that. He played just 12 games in 2012, spent time with the Atlanta Falcons, Rams and Vikings after that and ultimately retired after nine seasons following a torn Achilles in 2016.

Again, we don't want to criticize a player too harshly for injuries. Long appeared to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory early in his career.

The bigger knock on the Dolphins' selection is that they added quarterback Chad Pennington in free agency and passed on future stars Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in the 2008 draft.

While Pennington had a fine 2008 season (11-5 record) and was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year, he suffered a significant shoulder injury in 2009 and was a backup by 2010. Ryan and Flacco both went on to have borderline Hall of Fame careers.

15. OT Eric Fisher (2013)

AP Photo/David Becker

An argument can be made for ranking Long ahead of 2013 first overall pick Eric Fisher, who made only two Pro Bowls during his NFL career. However, we're giving Fisher a slight edge for two reasons.

For one, the 2013 draft class wasn't good overall. The Kansas City Chiefs definitely got one of the better players, though fourth overall pick Lane Johnson has had a longer and more successful career.

The list of other 2013 top-10 picks includes legitimate busts like Luke Joeckel, Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo and Dee Milliner.

Secondly, while Fisher was never truly elite, he was a reliable starter for the Chiefs for eight seasons when healthy. The Central Michigan product made 113 regular-season starts over that span and earned a place in Kansas City lore in 2019.

While injuries limited Fisher to eight regular-season games that season, he started all three playoff contests and helped the Chiefs win Super Bowl LIV.

Fisher suffered a torn Achilles in the 2020 AFC Championship Game, and Kansas City went on to lose Super Bowl LV, but he returned to start 15 games for the Indianapolis Colts in 2021.

While Fisher will never be confused with Hall of Fame tackles like Orlando Pace or Joe Thomas, he had a solid nine-year NFL career and is one of only three players on this list to play in and win a Super Bowl. (David Carr won a ring with the New York Giants in 2011, though he didn't appear in a single game that season.)

14. QB Baker Mayfield (2018)

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

The Browns got an above-average signal-caller in 2018 when they grabbed Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield. Unfortunately for Browns fans, Cleveland decided to dump Mayfield after only four years.

That proved to be a disastrous decision considering what Mayfield had been up through that point and what he has been since. Making matters worse, he was replaced by trade bust Deshaun Watson.

Mayfield landed with a team that didn't win a single game in 2017. He proceeded to deliver six wins as a rookie while throwing a then-rookie-record 27 touchdown passes. He regressed under ill-prepared head coach Freddie Kitchens in 2019, but the following year, he helped Cleveland win its first playoff game since the franchise's 1999 return to the NFL.

After a significant shoulder injury led to another down season in 2021, Mayfield was out. He spent time with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams in 2022 before reemerging as a Pro Bowl quarterback with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023.

Over the last few seasons, Mayfield has reestablished himself as an above-average starter and the face of Tampa's offense.

"He'll do whatever it takes to win, and a lot of guys have developed that mentality because of him, and we really like that," head coach Todd Bowles said, per Andrew Harbaugh of USA Today.

Mayfield's tenure with the Bucs has included two Pro Bowls, two division titles, 95 touchdown passes, and a 97.4 quarterback rating. Tampa Bay might have won the NFC South again in 2025 had injuries not taken their toll near the midseason mark.

The knock on Cleveland's 2018 pick—aside from the franchise's lack of patience—is that the Browns passed on future league MVPs Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson to take Mayfield.

13. QB Fernando Mendoza, 2026

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We can't put Fernando Mendoza too high on this list just yet, as he has yet to take a single NFL snap. Of course, he isn't a bust yet either, and it's virtually impossible to argue against his selection at No. 1 overall.

The Raiders needed a quarterback, and Mendoza is as close to a sure thing as there was at the position in this year's draft. He possesses archetypal size at 6'4" and 236 pounds, has enough arm strength to attack all areas of the field, and enough functional mobility to fit in a modern NFL offense.

Mendoza has also consistently proven himself against top-tier competition and in the biggest moments. In 2025, he led Indiana to an undefeated season and a national championship while adding a Heisman Trophy to his resume.

During his final collegiate campaign, Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards with 41 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 182.9 passer rating. He also ran for 276 yards and seven more scores.

Just as importantly, Mendoza started 35 games across three seasons for Indiana and Cal. His combination of traits, experience and proven production made him the right pick for Las Vegas on draft night.

Now, he must go out and prove he's the right quarterback for the Raiders on an NFL field.

12. QB Trevor Lawrence (2021)

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Trevor Lawrence was viewed as a generational talent coming out of Clemson in 2021. Taking him was an easy choice for the QB-needy Jaguars, who (wisely) passed on quarterbacks Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones.

Lawrence is the only one of that group who is still with his original team, and he has had some incredibly bright moments in his young NFL career. He made the Pro Bowl in his second season while leading the Jaguars to their first playoff berth since 2017.

While Lawrence's career has had its ups and downs, things were mostly up in 2025. New head coach Liam Coen crafted an offense that played to Lawrence's strengths, while an opportunistic defense prevented the quarterback from regularly having to carry the team—though he did deliver five game-winning drives.

Lawrence posted a 91.0 quarterback rating in 2025 while going 13-4 as the starter and looking every bit like the franchise quarterback he was drafted to be. Jacksonville did pass on top-tier prospects like Ja'Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Patrick Surtain II to select him, but Lawrence is starting to feel like the right choice again.

11. DE Mario Williams (2006)

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Houston's 2006 selection was that it opted for N.C. State edge-rusher Mario Williams over star USC running back Reggie Bush. The Texans were still in the David Carr era and unsurprisingly passed on the likes of Vince Young and Jay Cutler, but Bush was viewed as a special prospect.

Bush went on to have a respectable career with the New Orleans Saints and a handful of other teams, but he never managed to replicate his collegiate success. Williams didn't carve out a Hall of Fame career either, but he was a terrific player for more than a decade.

While Williams had modest numbers as a rookie (4.5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss), he exploded in his second and third seasons. He logged 14.0 sacks in 2007 before making the Pro Bowl in both 2008 and 2009.

Williams landed with the Buffalo Bills in 2012 and had two more Pro Bowl campaigns with them. He was also a first-team All-Pro in 2014 and finished his career with five double-digit sack campaigns and 97.5 career quarterback takedowns.

In his final season, Williams was largely a role player with the Miami Dolphins. He called it a career after the 2016 campaign.

While Williams isn't necessarily considered an NFL great, he's one of the most successful first-round picks the Texans have made as a franchise. On our list, he also ranks second among the five defensive players who went first overall this century.

10. QB Alex Smith (2005)

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Quarterback Alex Smith never reached the heights of fellow 2005 draft pick Aaron Rodgers, and his best football didn't come with the San Francisco 49ers. However, longevity matters in the NFL, and the Utah product eventually proved to have staying power despite facing some incredible odds.

Smith's early career left plenty to be desired. He was in and out of the lineup as a rookie, suffered a shoulder injury in 2007 and then missed the entire 2008 season with another shoulder injury. He spent four more seasons in San Francisco, though he started a full campaign only once (2011).

Smith was traded to the Chiefs in 2013 after the 49ers turned to Colin Kaepernick, and Smith fully revitalized his career in Kansas City. He earned three Pro Bowl nods with the Chiefs, led the NFL with a 104.7 passer rating in 2017 and helped lead KC to four playoff appearances.

While the Chiefs turned the page to Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Smith stayed in a starting role after joining the Washington Commanders. He went 6-4 as a starter in 2018 before suffering a devastating leg injury that led to multiple surgeries and a life-threatening infection.

Smith eventually made his way back to the field, though the injury and subsequent surgeries took their toll.

"I cannot play or do anything without wearing a brace or some kind of device," Smith said in 2021, per Lindsay Berra of Men's Health.

After nearly two years away, Smith returned to start six games for the Commanders in 2020, going 5-1 and helping Washington reach the postseason—though Taylor Heinicke got the start against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round.

Smith, who won the 2020 Comeback Player of the Year, called it a career after that final playoff run, but he left an impressive mark on NFL history. He helped three different franchises find the postseason, threw for 35,650 yards with 109 touchdowns and 109 interceptions and went 99-67-1 as a starter.

9. QB Caleb Williams (2024)

AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski

What a difference a year makes.

Caleb Williams entered the 2024 draft looking like a can't-miss prospect and the long-term answer the Chicago Bears have long lacked at quarterback. However, the USC product's rookie campaign was rather disappointing.

Williams did start all 17 games, but he went just 5-12 with an 87.8 passer rating. He threw 20 touchdowns with only six interceptions, but he was also sacked a league-high 68 times.

Williams' second season was dramatically better, though. New head coach Ben Johnson found ways to accentuate the quarterback's strengths, an improved offensive line kept him upright, and Williams showcased the special talent that made him the No. 1 overall pick.

The result was 3,942 passing yards, 388 rushing yards, 31 combined touchdowns, seven interceptions, a 90.1 quarterback rating, six fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season, an NFC North title and another comeback victory in the postseason.

The Bears came within a few plays of reaching the NFC title game and will likely be considered the favorites in their division entering 2026.

\We've seen enough from Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels that we still don't know who the best quarterback from the 2024 draft is yet. However, the Bears should feel very good about their choice for now.

8. QB Joe Burrow (2020)

AP Photo/Aaron Doster

This might feel low for Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow considering that he's arguably the best quarterback from a talented 2020 class that also featured Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts.

Hurts has a Super Bowl title and Burrow doesn't, but the LSU product is widely regarded as an elite quarterback on the level of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. However, Burrow has had a problem staying healthy.

In six seasons with the Bengals, Burrow has posted a 101.1 passer rating, delivered two AFC North titles and made one Super Bowl appearance. He's made three Pro Bowls and led the NFL with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024.

However, Burrow has also shown a tendency to hold the ball while looking for a big play. When combined with the Bengals' consistently underwhelming offensive line, that's led to him taking 213 sacks in 77 regular-season games.

It's also played a role in his injury history, which has now included three campaigns with significant time missed. Burrow was limited to eight games this past season by a toe injury.

While Burrow appears to have cleary Hall of Fame potential, he'll need to avoid an injury-shortened career to be considered one of the top No. 1 picks of this century. Hopefully we'll see him do exactly that, because few quarterbacks in today's game operate as efficiently and as effectively as he can.

7. QB Jared Goff (2016)

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Jared Goff was one of the last pure pocket passers to be considered an elite draft prospect.

The Los Angeles Rams traded up from No. 15 to land the Cal product in 2016, a move that cost them two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two third-round selections and kicked off an era of L.A. not participating in Round 1.

Goff's time with the Rams had its ups and downs. He struggled as a rookie under head coach Jeff Fisher but became a Pro Bowler under Sean McVay. He helped lead the Rams to Super Bowl LIII but lost the game and was traded to the Detroit Lions after two more seasons.

In Detroit, Goff has again become a Pro Bowl quarterback and one of the league's most prolific passers.

Two years ago, he helped the Lions reach their first NFC title game since 1991. In 2024, he posted a career-high 111.8 passer rating while leading Detroit to a franchise-best 15-2 record.

This past season wasn't as successful for the Lions, but Goff still threw 34 touchdowns, posted a 105.5 QB rating and made his fifth Pro Bowl.

The Rams swapped Goff for Matthew Stafford in 2021 and got a Super Bowl victory out of the deal. That move is now looking like one of the biggest win-win trades in recent NFL history.

Goff spent just five seasons with the team that drafted him, but he was absolutely the right pick at No. 1 in 2016. The Dallas Cowboys stumbled into Dak Prescott in the fourth round that year, but the list of other quarterbacks in the class is headlined by Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Connor Cook and Christian Hackenberg.

6. QB Andrew Luck (2012)

AP Photo/Tony Avelar

Andrew Luck's career should serve as a cautionary tale to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Stanford product was well-regarded enough entering the 2012 draft that the Indianapolis Colts were willing to part with future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning that same offseason.

Luck didn't disappoint upon entering the NFL. With an elite blend of arm talent, athleticism and football IQ, he was an instant sensation. Though Luck lost the Rookie of the Year race to No. 2 overall pick Robert Griffin III, any debate about which one was the better pro was short-lived.

Both quarterbacks made the playoffs as rookies, but Griffin suffered a torn ACL in the Wild Card Round and never returned to the postseason. Luck made the playoffs in each of his first three seasons before injuries impacted him as well.

Luck took frequent hits behind a lackluster Colts offensive line, and his injuries piled up. A lacerated kidney limited him to seven games in 2015, and he missed all of 2017 with a shoulder injury. He returned to start 16 games in 2018 but retired late in the following offseason after another summer of injury rehab.

"I've come to the proverbial fork in the road, and I made a vow to myself that if I ever did again, I'd choose me," Luck said in his retirement press conference.

And that was that. The surefire Hall of Famer hung up his cleats after six seasons, four playoff appearances, four postseason wins, four Pro Bowls, 23,671 passing yards, 1,590 rushing yards, 185 combined touchdowns and a 57-37 overall record (including playoffs).

With a career shorter than many yet greater than most, Luck remains one of the top draft picks of the 21st century.

5. QB Carson Palmer (2003)

AP Photo/Dave Martin

Before Joe Burrow, there was Carson Palmer. He was the common-sense top choice in the 2003 NFL draft who landed in Cincinnati and helped return the Bengals to relevance.

Like Burrow has to this point, Palmer lived up to the pre-draft hype. Palmer sat his entire rookie season, but the Bengals won just 19 combined games in the five seasons before he was drafted. In his first full two years as a starter, the USC product to 19 wins as well.

Palmer made the Pro Bowl in each of his first two seasons as a Bengals starter, and he helped the franchise reach the postseason twice. After Cincinnati struggled to keep a competitive team around him—and after a disappointing 4-12 season in 2010—Palmer asked to be traded.

The Bengals pivoted to Andy Dalton in the 2011 draft and allowed Palmer to stay away from football to start the season. In October of that year, Cincinnati dealt Palmer to the then-Oakland Raiders for a first-round pick and a conditional second-round selection.

Like many players on this list, Palmer's time in the spotlight didn't end when he left his original NFL home. He started 24 games in two seasons for the Raiders before starting 60 games in five years for the Cardinals.

Palmer's best season came with Arizona in 2015. He returned to the Pro Bowl that year after going 13-3 as a starter and delivered the Cardinals' only division title since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season.

While Palmer never found postseason success, he was a quality starter at every stop and experienced the longevity that few players have in the NFL. He played for 14 seasons, made 101 starts, threw for 46,247 yards, tossed 294 touchdowns and picked up 92 victories.

4. QB Cam Newton (2011)

AP Photo/Mike McCarn, File

Some fans may push back against Cam Newton's spot on this list because his prime was somewhat short. However, there's no denying that the Auburn product was the right choice for the Panthers in a 2011 draft that also featured Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder at the top of its quarterback class.

When Newton was at his best, he was virtually unstoppable. His combination of size (6'4", 245 lbs), play strength, arm talent and scrambling ability set a new standard for what quarterbacks are supposed to be able to do at the NFL level.

In many ways, Newton was Josh Allen before Josh Allen. His success remains a reason why prospects like Allen and Anthony Richardson have gotten early first-round consideration.

Success? Newton had plenty of it. He made the Pro Bowl and was named Offensive Rookie of the Year in his debut season, and he made three more Pro Bowls for the Panthers. He led Carolina to four playoff berths and helped the team reach the Super Bowl in 2015.

Injuries and physical punishment eventually caught up to Newton, who spent his last season as a full-time starter with the New England Patriots in 2020. However, the 2015 league MVP had an incredible career as both a runner and a passer.

In 148 career games, Newton racked up 32,382 passing yards, 5,628 rushing yards, 194 passing touchdowns, 75 rushing touchdowns and a 75-68-1 record. He's currently tied for 26th on the NFL's all-time rushing-touchdowns list.

3. Edge Myles Garrett (2017)

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Even the Browns get it right sometimes.

While their decision to move on from Baker Mayfield after four seasons looks like a massive error in retrospect, their decision to take Texas A&M's Myles Garrett first overall in 2017 was not.

Yes, Cleveland passed on Patrick Mahomes here. So did several other teams. And there's no guarantee that Mahomes would have the same career arc he's had with the Browns.

The reality is that No. 1 picks usually go to very bad teams, which is something Garrett experienced firsthand. Cleveland didn't win a single game during his rookie season.

However, landing with a snakebitten franchise hasn't stopped Garrett from thriving. While he recorded a modest seven sacks as a rookie, he's reached double-digits in each of the eight years since.

At the conclusion of the 2024 season, he became the first player in NFL history to record at least 14 sacks in four consecutive seasons. Two years ago, Garrett became the first player to reach 100 career sacks before his 29th birthday, and this past season, he broke the NFL's single-season sack record.

With Aaron Donald now in retirement, Garrett is almost unquestionably the most disruptive defender in the game.

In nine seasons, Garrett has been to seven Pro Bowls, been named a first-team All-Pro five times, and has been twice-named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He's already amassed 125.5 sacks, 239 quarterback hits, 149 tackles for loss, and 23 forced fumbles.

Early in their respective careers, there was plenty of debate about whether Garrett or T.J. Watt—who was taken 30th overall in 2017—was the better pass-rusher. The debate has quieted in recent years, however, as Garrett continues to prove that he truly is a generational talent.

What might be most remarkable is the fact that Garrett has been so consistently productive while playing for a franchise that only seems to play with a lead a few times per season.

2. QB Eli Manning (2004)

AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File

Some may view this ranking as far too high for Eli Manning.

Manning wasn't the best quarterback in the NFL at any point in his career, and he never led the league in any meaningful category except for interceptions, which he led three times.

That's probably why Manning wasn't elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in his first or second years of eligibility, though it should happen sooner than later.

When one also considers the fact that Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger were also very successful quarterbacks to come out of the 2004 class, it's fair to wonder how successful the selection of Manning really was.

When a franchise takes a quarterback at No. 1—or in New York's case, trades for that top prospect—it's seeking stability. Manning provided that better than any other No. 1 pick drafted this century, though some of the youngsters have time to make a case.

While Manning never had truly impressive regular-season numbers, he was often clutch in the postseason. He led New York to two Lombardi Trophies, and unlike his older brother Peyton, he wasn't just along for the ride in either of them. He made big-time throws on the biggest stage to beat the Patriots in 2007 and 2011, and he posted an 8-4 playoff record overall.

Manning wasn't exactly bad in the regular season, either. He made the Pro Bowl four times and threw for 57,073 yards with 366 touchdowns. Just as importantly, he was incredibly durable.

Manning started 210 consecutive regular-season games before Ben McAdoo decided to bench him for Geno Smith in 2017. He continued to start after that until the Giants pivoted to Daniel Jones in 2019.

In all, Manning helped deliver two Super Bowls to the Giants while solidifying the game's most important position for a decade and a half. A franchise simply couldn't ask for much more in return for a No. 1 draft pick.

1. QB Matthew Stafford (2009)

AP Photo/Brandon Wade, File

We've already discussed how the 2021 Stafford-Goff trade was a win for both the Rams and the Lions. Stafford helped L.A. win a Super Bowl during his first year with the franchise and has led the Rams to four playoff berths in five seasons.

In 2025, Stafford essentially cemented his Hall of Fame career with his first league MVP award.

While Stafford has already earned a spot in Rams history, Detroit laid claim to him first. After going winless in 2008, the Lions used the No. 1 pick on Stafford, a slam-dunk selection if ever there was one.

For one, the class wasn't exactly loaded with QB talent. Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman were the other two first-rounders. Secondly, Stafford entered the league showcasing a combination of arm strength, accuracy and variable delivery angles that few quarterbacks in the history of the game have possessed.

Stafford is right up there with Patrick Mahomes and prime Aaron Rodgers when it comes to incredible "wow throws."

Although Stafford only had one Pro Bowl campaign with the Lions, he had plenty of bright moments with the franchise. While Detroit has had recent success with Goff behind center, Stafford helped deliver three of the five playoff appearances the Lions have experienced this century.

Stafford also threw for 45,109 yards and 282 touchdowns in his 12 seasons with Detroit. He's thrown for another 19,407 yards and 141 touchdowns in Los Angeles, and he's one of only two quarterbacks on this list who have won a Super Bowl as a starter.