Probability Meter for Top 2025 NFL Draft Prospects to Go No. 1 Overall

Typically, we wonder which quarterback will be the first NFL draft pick, but this year is different.

The signal-callers in the 2025 class aren't elite prospects, but there's a unicorn two-way player and a potential future All-Pro edge-rusher in the group.

The Tennessee Titans have the No. 1 overall pick and a tough decision.

Should they take the best quarterback? Is there a generational talent at another position who deserves consideration? Is it in their best interest to trade the pick for a massive haul?

Let's sort out who could be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft, using a probability meter for each candidate. The meter ranges from one to 10, with the lowest number being least likely to go No. 1 and the highest number for the most likely to be the top pick.

WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona

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WR Tetairoa McMillan

Remember, teams will fill roster needs in free agency, and that will change the outlook of mock drafts.

If the Tennessee Titans sign a high-end bridge-gap quarterback, they could pass on the rookie prospects and build around the veteran. In that scenario, Tetairoa McMillan could enter the discussion among candidates to be the No. 1 overall pick.

Last offseason, the Titans revamped their offensive line, and the group has potential even though it still needs time to jell into a formidable unit. They also added Tony Pollard to pair with Tyjae Spears in the backfield. Tennessee could pair Calvin Ridley with McMillan for a dynamic duo on the perimeter.

With that supporting cast, a veteran quarterback could have a strong first year with the Titans.

As a freshman at Arizona, McMillan caught 39 passes for 702 yards and eight touchdowns. In 2023 and 2024, he eclipsed 1,318 receiving yards, catching 18 touchdown passes in that two-year span.

Travis Hunter aside, McMillan is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver in the class and the No. 3 overall prospect on Bleacher Report's big board. Though the Arizona product is a long shot for the top spot, he would make sense for the Titans if they invest a lot in a quarterback like Sam Darnold during free agency.

Probability Meter: 1

QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

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QB Shedeur Sanders

Shedeur Sanders isn't going to drop below No. 6 in the draft order.

According to ESPN's Jordan Raanan, his "preference" is the Las Vegas Raiders. Tom Brady, a minority stakeholder in the team, mentors the young quarterback, so the fit makes sense for both sides.

Sanders has also made predraft visits with the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants, who hold the No. 2 and 3 picks, respectively.

Raanan believes the Giants have "their sights" on Sanders. Even if that's the case, the Colorado product has a pathway to be the No. 1 pick.

If the Titans trade out of the top spot, the Giants or another team more interested in Sanders than Cam Ward could make a deal to get him. Remember, the Browns also have a need at quarterback as Deshaun Watson recovers from tearing his Achilles twice in three months.

Although this year's QB class isn't as strong as last year's group, the scarcity of high-end talent at the position could influence a team to make an aggressive move for a signal-caller.

Among FBS prospects, Sanders finished within the top five in passing yards (4,134), touchdown passes (37) and passer rating (168.21) while playing behind a suspect offensive line last season, and he earned recognition as the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.

Don't be surprised if a few teams have Sanders ranked higher than Ward on draft boards. Yet it would still be a shock to see the Tennessee Titans or another club take him at No. 1.

Probability Meter: 2

Edge Abdul Carter, Penn State

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EDGE Abdul Carter

After the Philadelphia Eagles throttled the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX, Abdul Carter made his case to be the No. 1 overall pick.

In 2024, he broke out with eye-popping numbers, recording 12 sacks and a league-leading 23.5 tackles for loss. The All-American also earned the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honor.

This year's class has quality depth at the edge position, but Carter leads the pack after a strong junior term at Penn State.

In a recent wave of mock drafts, analysts, including NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah, have linked Carter to the Titans at No. 1. B/R listed the standout edge-rusher No. 2 on its big board.

Remember that the last three non-quarterbacks to be the top picks in their draft classes are edge-rushers, Jadeveon Clowney in 2014, Myles Garrett in 2017 and Travon Walker in 2022.

If the Titans don't see any QB prospects as franchise players, they can focus on Carter. If Hunter primarily plays cornerback on the NFL level, one can argue Carter's position is more valuable for defensive success.

Probability Meter: 6

CB/WR Travis Hunter, Colorado

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WR/CB Travis Hunter

Travis Hunter is one of the most unique prospects in recent draft history. He could be a high-level wide receiver or cornerback in the pros.

As a two-way player, he excelled on both sides of the ball, hauling in 96 passes for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns and registering 11 pass breakups and four interceptions.

The two-time All-American won the 2024 Heisman Trophy and earned the 2024 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honor.

Titans president of football operations Chad Brinker said something that indicated they might consider a non-quarterback prospect with the first pick.

"We won't pass on a generational talent with the first pick in the NFL draft," he told reporters. "We won't do that."

Draft analysts have not described any of the quarterbacks in this class as generational prospects. So, Tennessee may be open to the idea of taking Hunter, who's capable of playing offensive and defensive positions at a high level.

The Titans have a more substantial need at wide receiver than at cornerback. Still, they may want to find an upgrade in the secondary after L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie missed several games because of injuries last season.

Bleacher Report lists Hunter as its No. 1 overall prospect. Last week, he had the third-best odds ( 500) of being the top pick, but his special talent could be too hard to pass up.

Probability Meter: 7

QB Cam Ward, Miami

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QB Cam Ward

Over the last month, Bleacher Report Betting has tracked odds for the No. 1 overall pick, and Cam Ward has been favorited (-140) to be the top selection.

If he goes first in the 2025 NFL draft, it would be the least surprising outcome with the importance of the quarterback position and the Tennessee Titans needing a franchise signal-caller.

Ward applied some pressure on the Titans with a strong warning that he won't forget about the team that passes on him.

"If you don't draft me, that's your fault," Ward said, per Stephen Hawkins of The Associated Press. "You've got to remember you're the same team that's got to play me for the rest of my career, and I'll remember that."

Ward is widely regarded as the top quarterback in the draft. In Bleacher Report's big board rankings, he's the No. 1 signal-caller and No. 8-ranked overall prospect.

In 2024, the Miami product threw for 4,313 yards and led the FBS in touchdown passes (39), finishing fourth in Heisman Trophy votes.

Ward may not be regarded as the top overall prospect on big boards, but if a quarterback goes No. 1, he will probably be the choice, either for the Titans or a team that trades up for him.

Probability Meter: 9

College football statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.