Early 2025 NHL Playoff Predictions and Bracket Breakdown if Season Ended Today
The 4 Nations Face-Off is complete, and now we are really getting into the stretch run of the 2024-25 NHL regular season.
When it comes to the race for Stanley Cup playoff spots, most places seem to be set with only a couple of teams still in the running.
The two wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference—maybe only one—remain up for serious grabs. So, with all of that in mind, let’s try to make a few predictions on what the playoff field could look like in a couple of months.
This is not a look at what the matchups currently are, though. It's a prediction and a guess on what they could ultimately look like based on rosters, potential trades and form.
The top-three teams in each division get automatic spots, with the next two best teams in each conference getting wild-card spots. The second- and third-place teams in each division will play each other in the first round, while the division winners will play the wild-card teams. The top division winner plays the lowest wild-card team, and the second division winner plays the top wild-card team.
Now, time for some projections and predictions.
Eastern Conference - Metropolitan Division: Capitals vs. Red Wings
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Washington Capitals
The Capitals crept into the playoffs as the second wild-card team a year ago despite being outscored by more than 30 goals over the course of the season and being, statistically speaking, a below-average team across the board.
They were one of the worst playoff teams of the modern era, and it was a minor miracle they even got in at all.
Instead of just coasting on that, the Washington front office was aggressive in re-shaping the roster and trying to turn the team into a legitimate playoff contender.
It added Pierre Luc-Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy and Logan Thompson, while also getting some big contributions from young players like Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael, and the Capitals enter the weekend with the best record in the Eastern Conference and are running away with the top spot. They should be solid in that spot.
Detroit Red Wings
The wild-card race in the Eastern Conference is pretty intense, with the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Columbus Blue Jackets, Boston Bruins and New York Rangers all fighting for two spots.
The Red Wings are trying to snap an eight-year playoff drought and have completely turned their season around with the hiring of head coach Todd McLellan.
The concern with that is their underlying and defensive metrics are still poor in relation to the rest of the league, especially at 5-on-5 play. They rank lower than 20th in expected goal share and expected goals against per 60 minutes, while their goaltending has not really been elite.
What has been elite, though, is their power play, which is carrying the offense and the team on this surge. That might be enough to get them in.
Are they good? Debatable. But sometimes a power play can do a lot.
Eastern Conference - Metropolitan Division: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils
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Carolina Hurricanes
This matchup looks to be as close to set in stone as you can get at this point. The only question is whether the Hurricanes or Devils get home ice.
Neither team is likely to catch the Capitals for top spot in the Metropolitan Division, and neither Columbus nor the New York Rangers are likely to catch them for one of these spots.
Carolina is as rock-solid as ever, and it now has a top-line superstar in Mikko Rantanen after acquiring him from the Colorado Avalanche.
The only question is whether the Hurricanes keep him and keep attempting to re-sign him, or flip him again if they can't sign him.
New Jersey Devils
After being one of the NHL’s biggest disappointments a year ago, the Devils made one big necessary change this offseason: They fixed their goaltending.
Goaltending and injuries were the two biggest factors in their regression during the 2023-24 season, and both have improved dramatically this year.
The addition of Jacob Markstrom has brought consistency to the most important position on the ice, and they have (mostly) avoided the injuries to top players that sidetracked so much of their season a year ago.
Eastern Conference - Atlantic Division: Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets
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Toronto Maple Leafs
As of writing, the Maple Leafs are trailing the Florida Panthers by three points for top spot in the Atlantic Division, but there are two things to keep in mind with that.
The first is they still have two games in hand where they can make up ground.
The second is the Panthers and Maple Leafs still have three head-to-head games remaining that could determine the division. With Matthew Tkachuk being injured and the Maple Leafs likely to aggressively add before the trade deadline, they might have a good chance to swoop in and take top spot in the division.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Why the Blue Jackets? Well, why not the Blue Jackets?
Even though they entered the weekend on the outside of the playoff picture, there is a lot to like about their chances down the stretch.
They have reinforcements returning from injury, and they are also likely to be buyers ahead of the trade deadline. That could be the most significant development because they not only have a ton of trade assets at their disposal, including a second first-round draft pick, but they also have more salary-cap space to use than any other team in hockey.
The Blue Jackets have been one of the biggest surprise teams in the league this year and have a chance to write themselves a storybook season.
Eastern Conference - Atlantic Division: Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
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Florida Panthers
The biggest concerns for the Panthers are going to be the physical toll back-to-back Stanley Cup Final runs can have on a team (that is a lot of hockey in a short period of time), and the injury Matthew Tkachuk suffered at the 4 Nations.
On paper, though, this is still an outstanding roster that should be a legitimate contender.
Adding at the trade deadline will be tricky with the Panthers' salary-cap situation and a lack of strong trade assets.
They are clinging to the top spot in the Atlantic Division, but Toronto having games in hand and the three remaining head-to-head games will determine everything there.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning championship core might be getting older and part of it (Steven Stamkos) might be playing elsewhere, but they just keep coming back and winning.
They have some depth issues in the lower half of the lineup, but as long as Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy stay healthy, they are going to be a playoff team. A good one, as well.
Jake Guentzel has also been a great addition and has fit in perfectly with their stars at the top of the lineup.
Western Conference - Central Division: Jets vs. Canucks
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Winnipeg Jets
Whether the Winnipeg Jets have enough depth to win the Stanley Cup remains to be seen. But their top-tier players are as good as anybody else in the NHL, and they have one of the league's best goalies in Connor Hellebuyck. Top-line scorers and an elite goalie can take a team a long way.
The Jets enter the weekend with top spot in the Western Conference and a fairly solid lead in the Central Division.
Everybody else in the division is competing for second place.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks have been in turmoil for most of the season due to the Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller rift. Now that the latter has been traded, most of the focus will now turn to the former and whether he can get back on track.
Or if the 26-year-old Swede will also get traded.
Quinn Hughes’ health is the other big X-factor here, and for as many reasons as you might want to list for why the Canucks could miss the playoffs, it's just hard to imagine one of the teams on the outside of the playoff picture being able to catch them. They might make it simply by default.
Western Conference - Central Division: Stars vs. Wild
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Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars have been in the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons and the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, and they have consistently been one of the best teams in the league over the past six years.
They just can not break through and get a championship, though. This roster is still good enough to make another run at it, and the Stars added Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci a few weeks ago.
Is that enough? Do they have enough salary-cap flexibility and trade assets to add somebody else impactful?
From top-to-bottom it is one of the most complete rosters in the league, and if starting goalie Jake Oettinger is playing well, he can be one of the biggest game-changers in the league.
Minnesota Wild
You have to give the Wild a lot of credit for the way they have been able to navigate through the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts and what they have done to their salary-cap situation.
Next season, they should be in a great position to really add more pieces and build a complete roster. Given the core they already have in place, that could be a massive franchise-changer.
The two big questions this season will be when they get Kirill Kaprizov back and what he plays like when he returns, and if the goaltending—specifically Filip Gustavsson—can continue to play the way it has this season.
Western Conference - Pacific Division: Golden Knights vs. Avalanche
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Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is in a back-and-forth race with the Edmonton Oilers for the top spot in the Pacific Division, and while the Golden Knights do have some injury concerns on defense coming out of
the 4 Nations break that could be a blessing in disguise. Given the way they work LTIR and the salary cap it could open the door for another big trade addition at some point over the next couple of weeks. Could they make a move to help solidify the top spot in the division?
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have two of the best players in the world in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, but the depth of the roster has not been the same over the past couple of years. They need more secondary help throughout the roster, while also hoping for the goaltending to at least be adequate (it was not prior to the MacKenzie Blackwood trade).
Trading Mikko Rantanen was a shock, but it did bring them back a young, cost-controlled player in Martin Necas, while also creating some salary cap space and giving them some additional trade assets in the form of some draft picks. They could be positioned for a trade. They are a playoff team. It is just a question of what their ceiling is when the playoffs begin.
Western Conference - Pacific Division: Oilers vs. Kings
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Edmonton Oilers
As long as the Oilers have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl they are going to have a chance and be contenders.
They just can not rely on that.
The Oilers still have some flaws in the lower half of their lineup and questions on defense and in goal, so it will be important for management to make some additions between now and the trade deadline. The division is still very winnable at this point as well.
Los Angeles Kings
This might seem like Groundhog Day for the Los Angeles Kings and their fans, but it is very much a possibility. The Kings have played the Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the playoffs three years in a row. They have lost to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round three years in a row. Could the fourth time be the charm?
The Kings played a winning style of hockey and remain a relentless defensive team – which is impressive given they played most of the season without Drew Doughty and did not re-sign Matt Roy in free agency – but they still have some need for another big-time goal-scoring finisher. If they can land somebody like that it might help them go from a playoff team to an actual Stanley Cup contender.
