Next NFL Quarterback Dominoes to Fall After Panthers, Andy Dalton Agree to Extension
The 2025 edition of NFL free agency won't officially start until next month, but the first moves of the offseason are already coming across the transaction wire. On Wednesday, the Carolina Panthers locked up impending free agent and backup quarterback Andy Dalton.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Dalton will remain in Carolina on a two-year deal worth up to $10 million.
While Dalton wasn't expected to be a top target in free agency, he was likely to draft interest as a veteran bridge option for quarterback-needy teams. There are never enough starting-caliber quarterbacks to go around in the NFL, and in a year with a relatively underwhelming QB draft class, the inevitable quarterback carousel will be intriguing.
Dalton's extension won't be the last quarterback-related move we'll see before the start of free agency. Here, you'll find a look at the next QB dominoes likely to fall between now and 4 p.m. ET on March 12.
Rams, Matthew Stafford Reach an Agreement on QB's Future
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The biggest name among quarterbacks who might be available this offseason is Matthew Stafford—though Aaron Rodgers might have a differing opinion on the matter.
Stafford is a Super Bowl winner, a two-time Pro Bowler and a signal-caller who has led the Los Angeles Rams to the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. At 37, he should have a few more years of high-level play in the proverbial tank.
However, Stafford and the Rams are at a bit of a contract crossroads after he surrendered most of his 2025 guarantees with last offseason's restructure. Stafford is set to earn a base salary of just $23 million this season. There's virtually no scenario in which he'll agree to play under his current terms.
According to Schefter, Stafford and the Rams are hoping to work out an extension that will allow him to retire in Los Angeles.
"It's up to those two sides to figure out a number that the Rams can live with that Matthew Stafford is more comfortable with that would enable him to continue and finish his NFL career with the Rams," Schefter reported on Tuesday (beginning at the 55-second mark)," That's the goal, I believe, of both sides. Now, that could change very quickly."
Stafford is due a $4 million roster bonus on March 14, so a new deal, if it comes, will likely be finalized before then. If Stafford and L.A. aren't close to an agreement before the start of free agency, however, there's a chance that he'll become available via a trade.
Any potential trade market for Stafford would likely be limited to QB-needy teams with the cap space available to extend him, but there are candidates. The Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans and New York Giants all have more than $45 million in projected cap space.
The Jets Officially Part with Aaron Rodgers, QB Decides Whether to Play in 2025
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Rodgers may have a higher profile than Stafford, though he hasn't performed nearly as well over the past couple of seasons. A torn Achilles sidelined the 41-year-old for nearly all of 2023, and he largely underwhelmed last season.
This has led the New York Jets to announce that they'll be moving in a different direction at quarterback.
"It was important to have this discussion now to provide clarity and enable each of us the proper time to plan for our respective futures," new head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey said in a joint statement.
What does the future hold for Rodgers? That remains to be seen, though his "tentative" plan is to play in 2025, according to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer. Finding a place to play, however, could prove difficult.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported Sunday on SportsCenter that "there's not a natural fit talking to people around the league."
Teams like the Steelers and the Rams—if L.A. parts with Stafford—could be interested. First, though, Rodgers will have to make clear his intention to play in 2025. Secondly, the Jets will have to make Rodgers' release official, which has yet to happen.
New York is most likely to release Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation, which would save $9.5 million in 2025 cap space. Until that happens, however, the Jets may hope to trade Rodgers instead. Teams probably won't be clamoring for a 41-year-old quarterback coming off a disappointing three-year stretch, but some teams do irrational things when it comes to the game's most important position.
Falcons Place Kirk Cousins on the Trade Market, Eventually Agree to Release Him
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We probably won't see a team trade for Rodgers. We may not see a team willing to trade for Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins either, but that appears to be Atlanta's preferred outcome.
"From what I understand, the Falcons are not just going to release him," NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe reported in January. "They will listen to teams in regards to trade offers, but they want to get something back from that deal, and they're willing to bring him back as a backup if it doesn't happen."
Cousins has become expendable for the Falcons, who benched him for rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. late in the regular season. It's hard to envision Atlanta keeping Cousins around as a backup with a $40 million projected cap hit, and releasing him with a post-June 1 designation would save no 2025 cap space—though it wouldn't cost the Falcons more money either.
We can expect Atlanta to make an open push to deal the 36-year-old. Unfortunately, the Falcons aren't going to find many takers. Cousins' contract is high for an aging QB who returned from a torn Achilles in 2024, played through shoulder and elbow injuries and was eventually benched.
Cousins' contract also includes a no-trade clause, and according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport, he and the Falcons haven't been in contact since the end of the season. Cousins would need to sign off on a trade and would likely need to agree to a contract adjustment to make it happen. That appears highly unlikely at this point.
With a $10 million roster bonus due on March 16, Cousins will likely be released if the Falcons can't find a trade partner. And while they probably won't, teams like the Jets, Cleveland Browns and Steelers could be interested in Cousins as a potential bargain free agent.
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Vikings Decide Whether to Retain or Part with Sam Darnold
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For most of the 2024 regular season, Sam Darnold played extremely well. However, he struggled mightily in the Minnesota Vikings' final two games of the year, which quickly turned a 14-2 record into a wild-card exit.
Still, Darnold figures to be the top quarterback available in free agency if he gets there. His 2024 Pro Bowl campaign was impressive, and he won't turn 28 until June. This could leave teams seeking a long-term QB solution—like the Giants, Raiders and Titans—straight into a bidding war.
That is, of course, if the Vikings don't decide to retain Darnold first. Minnesota did use a 2024 first-round pick in J.J. McCarthy, but he missed his entire rookie campaign following knee surgery. According to Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post, McCarthy's ongoing recovery could keep Darnold off the 2025 market:
"Several executives from quarterback-needy teams, who would have at least some interest in Darnold, suggested he’s not going anywhere. I hear that J.J. McCarthy, who lost his entire rookie year to injury, still has significant work to do to rebuild his body, let alone adjust to the NFL."
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell told reporters that Darnold has "earned the right" to be a free agent. However, Minnesota will almost certainly make a call on his future before the legal-contact period begins on March 10. With McCarthy waiting in the wings, the Vikings won't try to outbid other teams with a long-term contract offer.
A decision could come well ahead of free agency too. Teams have until 4 p.m. ET on March 4 to use the franchise tag, which might be Minnesota's best option for retaining Darnold on a short-term deal.
One way or another, QB-needy teams will know if Darnold is a 2025 option before the free-agent market opens.
Steelers Decide Whether to Retain Russell Wilson, Justin Fields or Neither QB
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We've mentioned the Steelers a couple of times as a team that could be in the quarterback market this offseason. They leaned on the duo of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson last season and made the playoffs. However, Wilson replaced Fields after six games and faded down the stretch.
Pittsburgh still hasn't won a postseason game since the 2016 season.
The Steelers may opt to bring one of the two signal-callers back for a second season, but they probably won't retain both. Wilson and Fields were budget-friendly options in 2024—the former playing on a league-minimum deal while still being paid by the Denver Broncos, the latter on a rookie contract. Neither will be as much of a bargain on a second deal.
Pittsburgh will have to decide if it favors the more experienced Wilson or the younger and more dynamic Fields. It doesn't appear that the franchise has a clear favorite.
"Right now, I'm not sure if they are 'clearly' leaning one way or another because I know there is something of a split sentiment," Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote on Thursday.
The Steelers could ultimately decide that they want neither incumbent and instead leap onto the QB carousel. Stafford, Rodgers and Darnold could all be on Pittsburgh's radar, along with impending free agent Daniel Jones.
"There’s interest in former Giants QB Daniel Jones inside the Steelers organization," Andrew Fillipponi of 93.7 The Fan posted on X.
Neither Wilson nor Fields is deserving of the franchise tag. However, the Steelers will likely map out a quarterback plan well ahead of free agency—unless they're waiting and hoping that a currently unavailable quarterback, like Stafford, becomes an option.
49ers, Brock Purdy Open Extension Negotiations
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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy won't be available this offseason, barring a massive surprise. The 25-year-old has a 23-13 regular-season record as San Francisco's starter and still has a year remaining on his rookie contract.
However, Purdy could still potentially impact the 2025 market this offseaon.
With three years on his resume, Purdy is now eligible for a contract extension. The 49ers appear eager to give him one.
"I know we want Brock to be here for a long time and we'll do everything we can to make that work," franchise owner Jed York said last week, per Josh Dubow of the Associated Press.
Making it work may involve quite the financial commitment.
"If Purdy wants to push it and stand on his record relative to his peers, don't be shocked if his eventual extension ends up averaging more than Lawrence's $55 million," ESPN's Dan Graziano wrote earlier this month.
The price of quarterbacks isn't going down, and if Purdy becomes the latest signal-caller to land in the $50-60 million range, the overall market is likely to rise again. Darnold's projected $40.1 million market value, for example, will pale in comparison.
While the 49ers may not rush to ink Purdy to an extension before the start of free agency, they'll likely ramp up talks in the coming weeks. Waiting to pay a quarterback rarely works out to a team's advantage—see the Dallas Cowboys and their 2024 Dak Prescott debacle—and Purdy may not be the only QB to receive an extension this offseason.
Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane hinted last month that extension talks with Josh Allen could be incoming. As previously noted, Stafford may also have an extension in place by mid-March.
One or More QBs Shake Up the Early 2025 Draft Picture
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The 2025 NFL draft will inevitably play a role in the quarterback carousel. However, this year's class doesn't appear particularly deep at the position. Colorado's Shedeur Sanders and Miami's Cam Ward are the only prospects who have received a first-round grade from the Bleacher Report Scouting Department.
The top three teams in the draft order, the Titans, Browns and Giants, need quarterbacks. However, any or all of them could opt for "safer" prospects like Colorado receiver/corner Travis Hunter or Penn State pass-rusher Abdul Carter. Or, one of them could look to trade its selection to another QB-needy team like the Raiders (sixth pick) or Saints (ninth).
The problem for any teams looking to deal at the top of the draft is that neither Ward nor Sanders appears worth the extensive capital it would likely cost for a team to trade into the top five. However, that could change during the pre-draft process, possibly as soon as this weekend.
The scouting combine will kick off on Thursday, and while not every top prospect will participate in every drill, they will have an opportunity to meet with teams, conduct interviews and undergo medical checks. There's a non-zero chance that a team will depart Indianapolis with a desire to land Ward or Sanders, even if it requires a move up the draft board.
There's also a chance that another QB prospect like Ohio State's Will Howard or Mississippi's Jaxson Dart may enter the early first-round conversation—possibly becoming a trade target in the process.
Let's not forget that, last April, the Falcons traded up for Penix, a prospect who wasn't getting much early first-round buzz heading into the draft.
While teams probably won't be very public about how they view the 2025 quarterback class, the predraft process could still impact how they approach free agency. A team that believes it can find its franchise quarterback in April probably won't be a major player for the top free-agent and trade targets in March.
Unless, of course, another team does exactly what the Falcons did a year ago and chases both.
*Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
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