Predicting Every MLB Team's 2025 Home Run Leader
For some MLB teams, predicting the club's home run leader for the upcoming season does not take much thinking, but for others it makes for a compelling debate as focus starts to shift to the start of the 2025 season.
Choosing anyone other than Aaron Judge for the New York Yankees or Shohei Ohtani for the Los Angeles Dodgers would certainly qualify as a contrarian take.
On the flip side, predicting the home run leader for the Miami Marlins is akin to picking a name out of a hat. To that point, does anyone remember who led them in long balls a year ago?
Ahead we've taken our best guess at each team's home runs leader for the upcoming season, while also making a prediction for how many home runs each of those picks will hit.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: SS Gunnar Henderson
Projected HR Total: 34
Coming off a 37-homer season, Henderson has established himself as a top-tier slugger, and now that Anthony Santander is in Toronto he is clearly the top power threat in Baltimore. A fully healthy Tyler O'Neill is one to watch after he launched 31 homers in 113 games last season, but he has topped 100 games played just twice over seven seasons in the majors.
Boston Red Sox: 1B Triston Casas
Projected HR Total: 31
Casas has hit 37 home runs in 195 games over the past two seasons, and he was a popular breakout pick entering 2024 before he missed significant time with torn cartilage in his rib cage. The 6'5", 244-pound slugger has serious raw power and the potential to be a 40-homer threat once he fully established himself in the majors.
New York Yankees: OF Aaron Judge
Projected HR Total: 52
As long as he stays healthy, Judge is a perennial threat for a 50-homer season, and he played a career-high 158 games in 2024. Shifting from center field to right field should help keep him fresh, and adding Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt as lineup protection should help keep teams from pitching around him.
Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Junior Caminero
Projected HR Total: 28
Caminero had 31 home runs over 117 games in the minors in 2023, so the raw power is there for him to make some serious noise in his first full season in the majors. Still only 21 years old, it might take him a few years to realize his full offensive potential, but he is still a prime candidate to lead Tampa Bay in homers. That's especially true if Brandon Lowe ends up traded at the deadline.
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Anthony Santander
Projected HR Total: 35
The home (.756 OPS, 18 HR) vs. road (.866 OPS, 26 HR) splits suggest that Santander will benefit from no longer playing his home games at Camden Yards, though there is also some regression to be expected from his career-high 44 home runs. The increased likelihood that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets traded makes him a risky pick to lead the team in homers.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: OF Luis Robert Jr.
Projected HR Total: 27
The only time that Robert has played more than 100 games, he hit 38 home runs and won Silver Slugger honors in a 5.0-WAR season. Staying on the field is his biggest hurdle, but there is also the very real chance he is traded as the White Sox continue to strip the roster down to the studs. On the other hand, who else is going to lead the team in home runs?
Cleveland Guardians: 3B José Ramírez
Projected HR Total: 40
J-Ram finished one home run shy of a 40/40 season last year while finishing in the top 10 in AL MVP voting for the seventh time in eight years. Those 39 home runs matched a career-high, and while losing Josh Naylor as protection in the lineup is a blow, Carlos Santana is a solid replacement and full seasons of Kyle Manzardo and Lane Thomas should give the lineup a further boost.
Detroit Tigers: OF Kerry Carpenter
Projected HR Total: 26
Carpenter missed 67 games last season with lumbar spine inflammation last season, but posted a .954 OPS with 10 home runs and 28 RBI in 133 plate appearances after returning to action on Aug. 13. In three seasons in the majors, he has a 135 OPS+ and has averaged 30 home runs and 90 RBI per 162 games. A fully healthy season could make him the top power threat on the Detroit roster.
Kansas City Royals: SS Bobby Witt Jr.
Projected HR Total: 32
Witt became the first shortstop in MLB history with back-to-back 30/30 seasons last year when he tallied 32 home runs and 31 steals, and his elite contact skills should allow him to continue maximizing his power. The Royals could still use more help in the lineup, but Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino will provide him plenty of lineup protection.
Minnesota Twins: OF Matt Wallner
Projected HR Total: 28
With a 6'4", 220-pound frame, Wallner looks the part of a middle-of-the-order slugger, and he has 27 home runs in 515 plate appearances over the past two seasons. The 27-year-old has a more clear path to playing time following the departures of Max Kepler and Manuel Margot, and his elite hard-hit rate (53.2%) and average exit velocity (92.8 mph) highlight his immense raw power.
American League West
3 of 6
Athletics: DH Brent Rooker
Projected HR Total: 36
Following an out-of-nowhere 30-homer season in 2023, Rooker proved he was the real deal last year when he posted a 165 OPS+ with 39 home runs and 112 RBI to finish 10th in AL MVP voting. It remains to be seen exactly how his new home ballpark will play as a home run hitting stage, but everything in his batted-ball metrics points to another 30-homer season to come.
Houston Astros: DH Yordan Alvarez
Projected HR Total: 42
Over the past three years, only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Alvarez have posted multiple seasons with a .300 batting average and 30 home runs. The risk for power regression is much lower when a player also has elite bat-to-ball skills and hits for a high average, so pencil in Alvarez for another 30-plus long balls with a chance for career-high numbers in his age-28 campaign.
Los Angeles Angels: C Logan O'Hoppe
Projected HR Total: 25
After hitting 14 home runs in 51 games as a rookie, O'Hoppe continued to show intriguing power potential with 20 long balls in 522 plate appearances last season. Still only 25 years old, he is capable of taking another step forward in the coming years. Unless Mike Trout can stay on the field for an entire season, O'Hoppe is as good a pick as anyone to lead the Angels in home runs.
Seattle Mariners: C Cal Raleigh
Projected HR Total: 31
Raleigh became the first catcher since Mike Piazza with back-to-back 30-homer seasons last year when he led all backstops with 34 home runs. A full season of Randy Arozarena hitting alongside him in the middle of the lineup should provide some additional protection. A third straight 30-homer season would make him just the second catcher ever to accomplish that feat, joining Piazza.
Texas Rangers: SS Corey Seager
Projected HR Total: 33
Seager is working on three straight 30-homer seasons since joining the Rangers, despite playing in just 119 and 123 games the past two years. There is no reason to expect anything less in 2025, but don't sleep on newcomer Jake Burger and up-and-comer Wyatt Langford as potential threats for the team lead.
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: 1B Matt Olson
Projected HR Total: 40
Olson failed to match his 54-homer, 139-RBI season last year, and he might not reach those heights again, but he should be able to top last year's 29-homer, 98-RBI output that was posted in an injury-plagued Atlanta lineup. With a healthy Austin Riley and eventually Ronald Acuña Jr. back in the mix, he should be a key cog in a stacked lineup once again.
Miami Marlins: 3B Connor Norby
Projected HR Total: 21
Norby was the prospect centerpiece of the deal that sent Trevor Rogers to the Orioles at the trade deadline last year, and he posted a 104 OPS+ with eight doubles, seven home runs and 17 RBI in 162 plate appearances as the team's primary third baseman down the stretch. Prospect Deyvison De Los Santos is another potential candidate following a 40-homer, 120-RBI season in the minors last year.
New York Mets: 1B Pete Alonso
Projected HR Total: 37
Only Aaron Judge (232 HR) has more home runs over the past six seasons than the 226 hit by Alonso since he burst onto the scene with a rookie record 53 long balls in 2019. With an opportunity to hit the open market again next offseason by way of an opt-out, and no threat of being saddled with a qualifying offer this time around, Alonso could be in for a big season.
Philadelphia Phillies: DH Kyle Schwarber
Projected HR Total: 36
Schwarber is right behind Aaron Judge (232) and Pete Alonso (226) with 212 home runs over the past six seasons, and he is the most prominent three true outcomes player in the game right now. In terms of sheer power, Schwarber stacks up to any hitter in baseball, and as long as he stays healthy another 30-homer season is all but guaranteed.
Washington Nationals: OF James Wood
Projected HR Total: 27
A quick glimpse of Wood's athletic 6'7", 234-pound frame makes it abundantly clear he has huge power potential. He hit just nine home runs in 336 plate appearances as a rookie, but looked the part of a future star while posting a 122 OPS+ with loud batted-ball metrics. Still only 22 years old, he could take a few years to reach his full in-game power potential, but expect an uptick in production across the board in 2025.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: OF Kyle Tucker
Projected HR Total: 34
A right shin injury limited Tucker to 78 games in 2024, but he still slugged 23 home runs and racked up 4.7 WAR while earning his third straight All-Star selection. The 28-year-old is one of the most dynamic offensive players in baseball, and now he is playing for a huge contract next offseason while also stepping into the de facto face of the franchise role for the North Siders.
Cincinnati Reds: SS Elly De La Cruz
Projected HR Total: 30
De La Cruz put up big average exit velocity (91.8 mph, 88th percentile) and max exit velocity (114.7 mph) numbers last year while slugging 25 home runs in 160 games. The next step in his development is cutting down a 31.3 percent strikeout rate, and if he can get that to a more manageable level, the first 30-homer season of his career should follow.
Milwaukee Brewers: OF Jackson Chourio
Projected HR Total: 33
Chourio hit .310/.363/.552 with 17 doubles, 12 home runs and 44 RBI in 63 games after the All-Star break, capping off his stellar rookie campaign with a two-homer performance in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Mets. He was the youngest player to appear in a MLB game last year, making it easy to dream on his long-term upside.
Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Oneil Cruz
Projected HR Total: 26
Cruz ranked near the MLB leaders in average exit velocity (95.5 mph, 99th percentile), hard-hit rate (54.9%, 97th percentile) and bat speed (100th percentile), making him a prime candidate to eclipse the 21 home runs he hit last year. Cutting down a 30.2 percent strikeout rate is the next step in his development, and a full-time move from shortstop to center field could allow him to focus more on his offensive game.
St. Louis Cardinals: 1B Willson Contreras
Projected HR Total: 28
After nine seasons and three All-Star selections as a catcher, Contreras is set to make a full-time move to first base this season following the departure of Paul Goldschmidt in free agency. He has five 20-homer seasons on his resume, and he hit 15 homers in 358 plate appearances during an injury-marred 2024 campaign, but he could be in for a career year at the plate without the grind of catching.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: 2B Ketel Marte
Projected HR Total: 31
Marte launched a career-high 36 home runs last season on the heels of a fantastic 2023 postseason performance, and he now has two 30-homer seasons in the last six years. Still in the prime of his career and surrounded by what was baseball's highest-scoring offense in 2024, Marte could be in for another big offensive season if he stays healthy.
Colorado Rockies: 1B Michael Toglia
Projected HR Total: 32
Toglia posted some of the best batted-ball metrics in baseball last year, ranking among the MLB leaders in hard-hit rate (94th percentile), average exit velocity (91st percentile) and barrel rate (98th percentile). The 26-year-old had a 105 OPS+ with 25 home runs during a breakout 2024 season, and even with a 32.1 percent strikeout rate he is still capable of a 30-homer performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers: DH Shohei Ohtani
Projected HR Total: 43
Ohtani became baseball's first 50/50 player while focused exclusively on hitting during the 2024 season. The three-time MVP is expected to return to the mound at some point in May, which means some of his attention will shift back to pitching, but he should still be an offensive force atop the Dodgers lineup. The 30-year-old has averaged 45 home runs and 105 RBI over the past four seasons.
San Diego Padres: OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
Projected HR Total: 30
Tatis had a 42-homer season in 2021, prior to missing the 2022 campaign recovering from injury and serving a PED suspension. The 26-year-old has 46 long balls in 243 games over the past two seasons, but that league-leading power potential is still there and a second career 30-homer season is well within reach if he stays healthy.
San Francisco Giants: OF Heliot Ramos
Projected HR Total: 25
Ramos enjoyed a post-hype breakout performance last season, posting a 125 OPS+ with 23 doubles, 22 home runs and 72 RBI in 121 games while earning an All-Star selection. Oracle Park is a less-than-ideal home ballpark for any power hitter, but with elite batted-ball metrics, he should challenge Matt Chapman and Willy Adames for the team lead.
