Purdue vs. Oregon Betting Odds, Pick & Point Spread: September 12th 2009

Purdue vs. Oregon
Free Pick: Oregon -12 (-105 odds) - Click here for point spreads
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I was on Oregon in Week One against Boise St. and the Ducks were dominated on the road. The big story was obviously the punch thrown by LeGarrette Blount and his loss will no doubt hurt the Ducks this season but this game will not factor in as much. The Ducks know they are a tarnished team right now so they will be out to prove something this week against a Big Ten team. It is expected to be a long year for Purdue this season. The Boilermakers are coming off a 21-point victory over Toledo in their opener but it was not as impressive as that final margin indicates. They outgained the Rockets by just 42 total yards and the defense, which was supposed to be the strength, allowed 493 total yards. The offense really looked good as Purdue brought in nine new starters and tallied 535 yards of total offense but that came against Toledo who was 77th in the country in total defense a season ago. The Oregon defense did a very good job against a very potent Boise St. offense as it held the Broncos to just 338 yards and 19 points and that was on the blue turf in Boise. A return home to Autzen Stadium should fire this team up even more. The Ducks came away with a victory last season in Lafayette in overtime so they will not be looking past the Boilermakers in this one. Purdue jumped ahead early in that game but Oregon fought back and ended up outgaining the Boilermakers by close to 100 total yards. Based on last year’s outcome as well as the results of the first week, this line may seem high and the public is biting on it already yet the number is moving the other way. I expect Jeremiah Masoli to have a big game here as he did not play well last week and he came in touted as a possible sleeper Heisman candidate. The Boilermakers gave up 423 yards passing last week and that does not bode well considering it is 2-12-2 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Oregon meanwhile is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points and falls into a solid situation carrying over from last season. Play on home favorites in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with four or more straight wins and finished with a winning record overall. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +28.8 ppg. 3* Oregon Ducks
Fargo did not start out NCAA Week One like he had hoped but last season he had a similar start in Week One (4-5) but all he did after that was go 56-30-8 ATS (65.1%) the next 10 weeks! Expect the same this year! He nailed his biggest play (9*) last week and does so again Saturday backed by a FANTASTIC 30-8 ATS (78.9%) Power Situation! Cash the biggest play of the weekend!