UFC Fight Night 69 Predictions: Main Card Staff Predictions
The first order of business is to copy "Jedrzejczyk" onto my clipboard. Now we're cooking with gas.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who has seven consonants in her 10-letter surname, is the UFC women's strawweight champion. And though UFC Fight Night 69 will be her first opportunity to defend the belt, she is already being hailed as a dominant competitor.
This Saturday, she will take on The Ultimate Fighter alum Jessica Penne to find out who the baddest 115-pound woman on the planet really is. It all goes down from Berlin, and it's the capper to an interesting main card.
As always, we're here to break it all down and give you picks. Riley "Kobra" Kontek. Sean "Salmon" Smith. Craig "Live Blog" Amos. James "The Athlete" MacDonald. And me, Scott Harris. Are you ready to get it on? Let's get it on.
Nick Hein vs. Lukasz Sajewski
1 of 4
Sean Smith
I don’t get too excited about UFC newcomers these days, but Lukasz Sajewski could make some noise in the lightweight division. At 24 years old, the Polish fighter is undefeated in 14 bouts, including a win over Bellator MMA standout Marcin Held. Nick Hein is solid and will have the home German crowd behind him on Saturday, but the red carpet should be rolled out for Sajewski.
Sajewski, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This should be an interesting fight. Both have a lot to offer, but Sajewski has the potential to go all the way in the sport. He’s good on the feet, but he excels when the fight hits the floor. I expect the hometown boy to get the submission and add to his bandwagon.
Sajewski, Submission, Rd. 1
Riley Kontek
Lukasz "Wookie" Sajewski finally makes his UFC debut, and trust me, he's a prospect to keep your eye on. Nick Hein will definitely give him a good fight, but Sajewski is the better of the two fighters. If the fight hits the mat, watch Wookie do his thing.
Sajewski, Submission, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Hein was unimpressive last time he fought against James Vick. While he has more to offer than what he showed that night, he has a tough matchup here. Sajewski will hold his own no matter where the action takes place. If a finish comes, it'll probably be a submission, but Hein can likely make it to the final bell. He just won't win.
Sajewski, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
I like Sajewski as much as the next guy. His grappling is strong. But what I want you to do right now is sound the alarms...the upset alarms. With the home-crowd wind at his back, Hein will use his excellent judo and meat-and-potatoes striking game to get the thing done.
Hein, Unanimous decision
Peter Sobotta vs. Steve Kennedy
2 of 4
Smith
Around 13 months ago, Sobotta made his UFC return and bested Pawel Pawlak on the scorecards. At 28 years old, Sobotta is now in his prime and could be ready for a longer UFC run this time around. Stepping in as a replacement opponent for Sergio Moraes, Kennedy is in a tough spot with this matchup and, having not reached high-level MMA until 32 years old, might not be cut out for the big show.
Sobotta, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
I don’t hold out much hope for Kennedy on short notice. I wouldn’t even pick him if he had a full camp, to be fair. Sobotta will get the fight to the floor and eventually secure a fight-ending submission. This is a hometown gimme for the German crowd.
Sobotta, Submission, Rd. 2
Kontek
Steven Kennedy is a serviceable fighter, but competing on short notice in Peter Sobotta's homeland is a tall task. Sobotta is streaking right now and was training for a vastly superior Sergio Moraes. He will finish this fight and continue his UFC resurgence.
Sobotta, Submission, Rd. 2
Amos
Sobotta earned a win in his first UFC fight. This time he'll get his first finish. He brings excellent submission skills to the Octagon, and submission defense has been a point of weakness for Kennedy. This one seems tailor-made for the German.
Sobotta, Submission, Rd. 1
Harris
I have no idea who Steve Kennedy is. And picking up this fight at the 11th hour does not exactly hearken us back to the days of Camelot. Those were glamorous, halcyon-type days. This day will not be one of those days.
Sobotta, Unanimous decision
Dennis Siver vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
3 of 4
Harris
Dennis Siver just looks like a good fighter. Doesn't he totally look like a bad ass? I expect him to start rappelling down from the ceiling with an M-16 under his arm. I also expect him to use his kickboxing to dust off Tatsuya Kawajiri in this co-main event.
Siver, TKO, Rd. 1
Amos
Siver didn't do especially well against Conor McGregor last time out, but that seems to be common ground shared by all of McGregor's UFC opponents. Kawajiri won't make it easy, but Siver will be able to keep the fight standing for the most part and tally points on the scorecards. He may even throw in a takedown or two for good measure.
Siver, Unanimous decision
Kontek
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Who will be able to impose his strength over the other? That man would be Dennis Siver. He's in front of his countrymen, has suitable enough takedown and is the better striker of the two. He will use kicks and punches to keep Kawajiri at bay, earning a clear-cut decision in the process.
Siver, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
As is the case with the main event, we have a matchup problem. Kawajiri is the better grappler, but it’s unlikely that he’ll take advantage of that fact. Siver will coast to a decision on the back of his superior striking.
Siver, Unanimous decision
Smith
With only one win since 2012, Siver has not gathered much momentum in the 145-pound division. However, he’s lost against some tough competition in Conor McGregor and Cub Swanson. A tough man to take down at this weight, I’m expecting the German to stuff Kawajiri’s takedowns attempts and win this one with some steady kickboxing.
Siver, Unanimous decision
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Jessica Penne vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
4 of 4
Smith
With three wins in three UFC appearances, Joanna Jedrzejczyk seems to be getting better with every outing. That is a scary thing for Jessica Penne and the rest of the strawweight division. Having a longer reach than Carla Esparza, Penne might keep Jedrzejczyk on the outside enough to avoid a knockout blow, but she’s still going to have a tough time standing with the Polish champion.
Jedrzejczyk, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
This is a tough matchup for Penne. While she’s superior on the ground, she is outmatched on the feet. What’s more, she is unlikely to get Jedrzejczyk to the floor consistently. The champion will beat Penne up with her more advanced striking game and eventually earn the stoppage.
Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Rd. 4
Kontek
This is going to be a fun, close fight. On one hand, you have Penne, who is vastly superior on the mat. On the other, you have Jedrzejczyk, who has shown to be a muay thai buzz saw. She showed improved takedown defense against Carla Esparza, a wrestler, upon winning the title. She will use that in unison with her hands to outpoint a gritty, tough Penne.
Jedrzejczyk, Unanimous decision
Amos
MMA math is evil and all that, but there are a couple of things that make me think Penne has little chance in this one. On The Ultimate Fighter, she was outstruck by Carla Esparza, while Jedrzejczyk battered Esparza. Esparza is also a better wrestler than Penne, and she officially went 1-of-17 on takedowns against Jedrzejczyk. Penne is a legitimate top strawweight, but this matchup is about as wretched as it gets for her. The champ will retain her title.
Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
If Esparza couldn't do it, I don't have a ton of faith that Penne will do anything different. She is tough, but Jedrzejczyk will stuff her takedown attempts and pump the jab to mark up the challenger and notch her first title defense.
Jedrzejczyk, Unanimous decision
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