Pros and Cons of Carolina Hurricanes Trading No. 5 Pick in NHL Draft

As an increasingly clear top five emerges in the 2015 NHL draft class, the Carolina Hurricanes' No. 5 overall selection is rising in value.

Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis noted to the News & Observer's Chip Alexander last month that he isn't interested in trading up any higher into the first-round order. He expressed more willingness to trade down, however, subtly labeling the Hurricanes' selection as open to trade offers.

Boston College Eagles defenseman Noah Hanifin and OHL center Mitchell Marner compose the bottom end of the consensus top five prospects and could fall to the 'Canes at No. 5. Big men Lawson Crouse and Mikko Rantanen, meanwhile, compose the elite of a diverse second tier and offer the 6'4" size the 'Canes desperately need.

My series in May, which analyzed the pros and cons of each, is summarized below (links can be found in the above paragraph):

Player		Pros	Cons	Pick Range
Noah Hanifin	D	Offensive defenseman but also strong defensively, NHL-ready, low risk of failure	'Canes need prospect forwards much more than defensemen	3rd-5th
Mitch Marner	C	Recorded 126 points in 63 OHL games this season, very skilled scorer and playmaker	Alarmingly undersized at 160 pounds, not very strong or physical	3rd-5th
Mikko Rantanen	RW	Reliable forward with 6'4" size, used to facing pro competition, NHL-ready	Doesn't take advantage of his size particularly well, lesser upside than others	5th-8th
Lawson Crouse	LW	Very big (6'4", 212 lbs) and powerful, high hockey IQ, dominating checker	Put up mediocre scoring stats in OHL, struggles to translate ability into results	5th-10th

If Francis does trade down, it can be considered essentially impossible for him to land Hanifin or Marner. Nevertheless, Crouse, Rantanen and a number of other strong players are more likely to remain available further down the top 10.

Cons to Trading Pick

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The consequences of dealing the pick are simple: losing a guarantee of getting Hanifin, Marner or the even more highly touted Dylan Strome, all of whom pack potential as future superstars and franchise centerpieces.

Stay fifth and get the leftovers of the best top five in a decade. That's the current situation for the 'Canes, should they stay put, and it's hardly an undesirable situation.

While Hanifin may not be a forward and Marner may not have a big frame, they're undoubtedly the best players available (outside of the unreachable top few) and the most upside-laden 18-year-olds on the table this June.

Pros to Trading Pick

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Mathematics show that, historically, the difference between the No. 5 and No. 6 selections is almost irrelevant.

According to work done by Michael Schuckers of St. Lawrence University, the value difference between the two is not even worth the last pick in the seventh round. In other words, trading down from fifth to sixth should theoretically not warrant even the draft's very last pick in return.

Pick No.	Team
5	Carolina Hurricanes
6	New Jersey Devils
7	Philadelphia Flyers
8	Columbus Blue Jackets
9	San Jose Sharks
10	Colorado Avalanche

And trading from No. 5 to even No. 8, moreover, should garner only the eighth pick of the fourth round in return.

Fortunately (for the 'Canes), NHL GMs are more brash than calculators, and the extra hype surrounding this year's draft, in particular, will feed those impulses even more.

For Francis, the reasonableness of trading down from his current spot to one later in the top 10 will depend on what he is offered on the trade market in return.

A second-round pick? Probably a yes. A fourth-rounder? Probably not.

Depending on how many selections the 'Canes drop (assuming they do), Crouse and Rantanen may still be available. If Francis would have picked one of the pair at No. 5, trading down to do the same would be an excellent decision.

But trading down could also put a plethora of other prospects on the map.

Possible Other Picks

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Ivan Provorov, a 6'0" offensive defenseman, rode an impressive debut season with the WHL's Brandon Wheat Kings from a projected middle-round to a projected top-10 NHL selection. He's ranked ahead of Rantanen, Crouse and others by Sportsnet, but Provorov is still a year or more away from being professionally ready.

Pavel Zacha, a 6'3" grinding center, is marred by a number of uncertainties—he was suspended twice in the OHL in 2014-15, he's had injury problems in recent years and it's hard to tell which forward position he's best suited for—but he's one of the most talented players in the draft and has starred for the Czech Republic in international competitions.

Zach Werenski, a 6'2" playmaking defenseman, is a Mike Green-type offensive blueliner with power-play quarterbacking experience and elite mobility for a rearguard. The University of Michigan product, however, is younger than most and still has room to improve defensively (especially in terms of positioning and gap-closing).

Mathew Barzal, a 5'11" sleek center, has also struggled through injuries—and that's an especial concern for him, considering his style of play and lack of bulk—but produced well when healthy for the WHL's Seattle Thunderbirds and possesses superb skating ability, in terms of both speed and agility.

Timo Meier, a 6'1" power winger, is a rare well-rounded, balanced player in the 2015 class. It's hard to point out a major flaw in either his physical characteristics or his playing style, but he lacks superstar upside and falls slightly short of Rantanen's resume.

Final Thoughts

The 'Canes and Ron Francis won't be without diverse options, should they deliberately slide down closer to the bottom of the top 10.

But, as one would expect, the quality of those options and the certainty of a successful draft pick do both decrease at, say, No. 8 compared to No. 5.

The decision on whether or not to trade down should rest on the offers that other teams present to the Hurricanes.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.