MLB Draft 2015: Projections for Most Intriguing 1st-Round Baseball Prospects

The moment we've all been waiting for has finally arrived. No, unfortunately, I do not mean they've announced a Breaking Bad reunion. I do, however, mean we've arrived at the 2015 MLB draft.

Thursday night marks the first ceremony of the Rob Manfred era. The Arizona Diamondbacks will have the first selection, the Houston Astros will have two of the top five and the New York Yankees may finally start building a cogent farm system with their pair of early picks. (OK, probably not. But still. There's a chance!)

As for the biggest remaining storylines, it's all about which prospects are headed where. Will the Diamondbacks select consensus top prospect Brendan Rodgers, go with a college arm or even a college bat? How will the Astros navigate their need to replace 2014 top pick Brady Aiken with the best players available?

All of those questions can be answered via our handy-dandy mock draft. With that in mind, here's one final look at the first round, along with some assessment of top prospects.

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	School
1	Arizona Diamondbacks	Brendan Rodgers	SS	Lake Mary HS (FL)
2	Houston Astros	Dillon Tate	RHP	UC Santa Barbara
3	Colorado Rockies	Dansby Swanson	2B/SS	Vanderbilt
4	Texas Rangers	Alex Bregman	SS	LSU
5	Houston Astros	Kyle Tucker	OF	Plant HS (FL)
6	Minnesota Twins	Daz Cameron	OF	Eagle Landing HS (GA)
7	Boston Red Sox	Walker Buehler	RHP	Vanderbilt
8	Chicago White Sox	Tyler Jay	LHP	Illinois
9	Chicago Cubs	Carson Fulmer	RHP	Vanderbilt
10	Philadelphia Phillies	Jon Harris	RHP	Missouri State
11	Cincinnati Reds	Trenton Clark	OF	Richland HS (TX)
12	Miami Marlins	Mike Nikorak	RHP	Stroudsburg HS (PA)
13	Tampa Bay Rays	James Kaprielian	RHP	UCLA
14	Atlanta Braves	Tyler Stephenson	C	Kennesaw Mountain HS (GA)
15	Milwaukee Brewers	Kyle Funkhouser	RHP	Louisville
16	New York Yankees	Brady Aiken	LHP	IMG Academy
17	Cleveland Indians	Kolby Allard	LHP	San Clemente HS (CA)
18	San Francisco Giants	Phil Bickford	RHP	Southern Nevada JC
19	Pittsburgh Pirates	Kevin Newman	SS	Arizona
20	Oakland Athletics	Ian Happ	2B/OF	Cincinnati
21	Kansas City Royals	Cornelius Randolph	SS	Griffin HS (GA)
22	Detroit Tigers	Nathan Kirby	LHP	Virginia
23	St. Louis Cardinals	Michael Matuella	RHP	Duke
24	Los Angeles Dodgers	Chris Betts	C	Wilson HS (CA)
25	Baltimore Orioles	Garrett Whitley	OF	Niskayuna HS (NY)
26	Los Angeles Angels	Cody Ponce	RHP	Cal Poly Pomona
27	Colorado Rockies	D.J. Stewart	OF	Florida State
28	Atlanta Braves	. Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	Concordia Lutheran HS (TX)
29	Toronto Blue Jays	Ashe Russell	RHP	Cathedral HS (IN)
30	New York Yankees	Nick Plummer	OF	Brother Rice HS (MI)
31	San Francisco Giants	Andrew Benintendi	OF	Arkansas
32	Pittsburgh Pirates	Scott Kingery	2B	Arizona
33	Kansas City Royals	Dakota Chalmers	RHP	North Forsyth HS (GA)
34	Detroit Tigers	Donny Everett	RHP	Clarksville HS (TN)
35	Los Angeles Dodgers	Richie Martin	SS	Florida
36	Baltimore Orioles	Donnie Dewees	OF	North Florida

Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (No. 16, New York Yankees)

Forget the top of the draft. Aiken is the most interesting prospect in this class. Where he goes. Whether he signs. What happens to his career over the next decade. There is no player I'm more interested in heading into this draft; it's not even close.

A year ago, Houston selected Aiken with the top overall pick. Taken ahead of consensus top collegiate pitcher Carlos Rodon, the Astros' decision raised some eyebrows despite most acknowledging Aiken's talent. The months following that selection turned into a nightmare, however, as Houston made an offer, rescinded its offer and then reduced its signing bonus offer after a medical exam showed concerns with Aiken's elbow.

In the end, Aiken chose to not sign the Astros' $5 million deal and re-enter his name in this year's draft. He planned on playing at the hallowed IMG Academy to keep himself in shape, but that lasted all of a dozen pitches. One Tommy John surgery later, Aiken's draft stock is a near-constant source of conversation.

"I can honestly say I don’t regret not signing," Aiken wrote in a column for the Players' Tribune. "It was a very difficult decision, but it also was an informed decision based on circumstances only a few people know the truth about."

Because he turned down $5 million, odds are Aiken is going to be looking for an above-slot bonus. You can't offer me $5 and then a year later I happily take $2, so I'd imagine the logic goes the same way once you add a few zeroes to that scenario. That means teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, who have deep pockets and can incur the penalties of going above slot, are the most likely destinations. Don't sleep on the Chicago Cubs, either.

Phil Bickford, RHP, Southern Nevada JC (No. 18, San Francisco Giants)

Like Aiken, Bickford re-enters the draft after being unable to agree to terms with his original team. The Toronto Blue Jays selected him with the No. 10 overall pick in 2013, only to allow him to head to Cal State Fullerton after tense negotiations.

Bickford lasted one year at Fullerton, going 6-3 with a 2.13 ERA. He transferred to Southern Nevada junior college after his freshman campaign, setting his eyes on the 2015 draft—one year before he'd be able to enter had he stayed at Fullerton. The righty posted a 9-1 record with a 1.45 ERA, striking out a whopping 166 batters in 86.2 innings.

Despite having success everywhere he's been, opinions remain fractured on Bickford. He only has two plus pitches at this point, and ESPN's Keith Law reported highly variant opinions from team to team.

"Further fogging teams' views of Bickford is his enigmatic personality, as well as concerns about his health," Law wrote. "He's the most volatile prospect in the entire draft, and his fate on selection day will likely be decided by what (important) eyes saw him at his best."

If Bickford winds up struggling as some expect, the Blue Jays will have dodged a bullet two years ago. But there's enough talent and production here to really make you wonder.

Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw Mountain HS (GA) (No. 14, Atlanta Braves) and Chris Betts, C, Wilson HS (CA) (No. 24, Los Angeles Dodgers)

The top two catchers in this class, Stephenson and Betts are interesting because you can really see them going anywhere. There's a massive range for both players, wholly dependent on which teams are willing to bet on their raw tools.

Stephenson's a huge power hitter whose size may force him to move to another position someday. He's going to be drafted far more for his bat than his fielding ability, which makes him tough to gauge. As a catcher, dude's a total plus. His pop makes him worth it even if he tops out as average defensively. But as we've seen with many other catching prospects, that value dips precipitously.

Betts is also an offense-first guy, though he's a bit further away than Stephenson. He's much more of a tools guy—as opposed to possessing actual skills—at this point. You're probably looking at a five-year project, and that's assuming he's good enough defensively to stick at catcher.

When positions are thin—as catcher is this year—it's always interesting to see where the top players will land.