Belmont Stakes 2015: Odds, Prediction and Biggest Sleeper

From the looks of the early odds for the 2015 Belmont Stakes, Frosted and Materiality are the biggest threats to American Pharoah’s quest to win the first Triple Crown in 37 years. 

After winning both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in impressive fashion, American Pharoah is the favorite to win at Elmont Park at 1-1 odds. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds per OddsShark.com.

• American Pharoah 1-1
• Frosted 5-1
• Materiality 15-2
• Mubtaahij 14-1
• Carpe Diem 16-1
• Madefromlucky 22-1
• Keen Ice 25-1
• Divining Rod 25-1
• Tale of Verve 28-1
• Conquest Curlinate 33-1
• War Story 33-1
• Frammento 50-1

American Pharoah Will Win the Triple Crown

It’s hard to bet against American Pharoah, but conventional wisdom—that has been strengthened over almost four decades of near misses—conditions us to prepare for the horse to fail. The most encouraging thing about American Pharoah is that he has shown the ability to win in different ways.

He chased down Dortmund and Firing Line to win the Kentucky Derby. On a shorter track at the Preakness Stakes—and starting from the rail in wet conditions—American Pharoah wasted no time showing his dominance en route to a win at Pimlico Race Course.

Endurance will be the biggest key at the Belmont. It’s the longest of the Triple Crown events, and trainers like Todd A. Pletcher have stored thoroughbreds like Materiality up for a strong run at the final jewel. 

Per Jack Randall of Odds Shark, Materiality should be one of—if not the freshest—horse on the track at Elmont Park. Randall writes:

“The colt [Materiality] will be the most lightly raced in the field with just four career starts. His best effort came in a win in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on March 28.”

Some, such as California Chrome owner Steve Coburn, famously took exception with the inclusion of horses like Materiality in the Belmont. Let’s just say that after his horse saw his bid to win the sport’s top prize stymied by Tonalist in 2014—a horse that didn’t run the Derby or Preakness—Coburn was less than happy in the post-race interview captured by PGA Pappas on YouTube.

As it is, if American Pharoah is going to make history, he’ll have to beat rested horses such as Materiality to do it. Were Pletcher’s horse to win the race, it might not be a huge shock to the sport’s system, but there is one horse with long odds to keep an eye on.

Tale of Verve is a Dangerous Sleeper

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Despite finishing as the runner-up at the Preakness Stakes, Dallas Stewart trainee Tale of Verve’s odds are 28-1 to win the Belmont Stakes. The difference in distance and the horse’s sprinting style explains why he isn’t more highly regarded for the Belmont, but 28-1 might be downright disrespectful. 

Stewart liked what he saw from his horse on Sunday, per Horse Racing Nation. 

“He had a good long gallop all the way around the track yesterday and today under [exercise rider and apprentice jockey] Cortez Walker, who's from Hattiesburg, Mississippi," said Stewart. 

“The horse looks great, his appetite is great - he had five scoops last night. He's doing really well. I'm pleased with the way he's handling things up here."

American Pharoah is still the pick here, but with proven success against a strong field at the Preakness, you could make crazier bets than Tale of Verve to show. Winners win and contenders contend. Tale of Verve at least fits the description of the latter.