Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Pitcher Studs and Duds for May 27
Those late to assembling a daily MLB lineup for Wednesday will find several high-quality starting pitchers waiting in the evening slate.
Anyone encumbered by work or school can still enter a late DraftKings contest consisting of four matchups. That means gamers must pick two of eight hurlers. Don't panic; all but one are above-average arms.
A few projected popular picks don't have the peripherals to match their early success. With everyone else on board, players must decide whether to ride the good fortune or move in another direction.
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Studs
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals ($11,100) at CHC
The Chicago Cubs offer ample power inside Wrigley Field, and Max Scherzer must earn a tough victory with Jon Lester rounding out a battle of aces. But this is a man who has compiled over 10 strikeouts per nine innings every season since 2012, and he gets baseball's most strikeout-prone offense against righties.
There are enough options not to label Scherzer a must-play, but he remains a comforting one while sporting a 1.67 ERA and 24.9 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage.
Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals ($8,300) vs. ARI
Lance Lynn is simply too good to only cost $8,300. The underrated righty boasts a 2.81 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 10.21 K/9 rate, better marks than those owned by the pricier Zack Greinke, Garrett Richards and Lester.
Although the Arizona Diamondbacks have exceeded expectations this year, their .308 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching ranks No. 16. In terms of weighted runs created plus (WRC+)—another measure of offensive efficiency that neutralizes their Chase Field advantage—they're below average at No. 20.
The St. Louis Cardinals also get the evening's most vulnerable opponent in Josh Collmenter, so Lynn represents the night's top play.
Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels ($9,000) vs. SD
Despite a 2.98 ERA through seven starts, Garrett Richards has taken a step down from last year's revolutionary play:
| ERA | 2.61 | 2.98 |
| WHIP | 1.04 | 1.13 |
| K/9 | 8.75 | 7.35 |
| BB/9 | 2.72 | 3.77 |
| FIP | 2.60 | 3.52 |
But it's not all bad news. His 9.6 line-drive percentage and 15.9 hard-hit average are both the lowest among starters with at least 40 innings pitched. His 10.4 swinging-strike percentage is right on par with last year's 10.8 percentage, offering hope of the hard-throwing righty fanning more batters down the road.
Due to their 21.8 strikeout percentage against righties, the San Diego Padres are a good place to start.
Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres ($7,700) at LAA
Andrew Cashner's 3.92 FIP says run, and pitching away from Petco Park doesn't help his cause. Since joining San Diego in 2012, he holds a 3.96 ERA on the road and 2.15 ERA at home.
However, he has regained his strikeout mojo with 54 through 56 frames, and the Angels wield baseball's worst OPS (.627) against right-handed pitchers. Although not the most reliable choice, he's playable for someone looking to preserve his or her budget for offense.
Duds
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers ($9,500) vs. ATL
Yes, Zack Greinke owns a stellar 1.48 ERA, and Clayton Kershaw just neutered the Atlanta Braves last night. Look closer, however, and Greinke is not the premium pick he seems.
The 31-year-old has benefited from a .222 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), causing him to significantly outperform his 3.07 FIP. After fanning 9.21 batters per nine innings last year, he has posted a 7.23 K.9 with a diminished average fastball velocity.
| 1 | Shelby Miller | .206 | 1.50 | 3.23 |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | .222 | 1.48 | 3.07 |
| 3 | Dallas Keuchel | .222 | 1.98 | 3.19 |
| 4 | Edison Volquez | .230 | 2.77 | 3.44 |
| 5 | Michael Wacha | .232 | 1.87 | 3.66 |
Meanwhile, the Braves are the second-toughest team for righties to strike out behind the Kansas City Royals with a 16.0 strikeout percentage. With few punchouts and an eventual regression to the mean waiting, Greinke isn't tonight's optimal choice.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs ($8,600) vs. WAS
Playing to win is a necessary DFS evil. The stat says little about a pitcher's actual skill, but it nets four points for DraftKings owners. Against Scherzer, Lester will be hard-pressed to corral a victory. Besides, Lynn is a better option at a similar price.
Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves ($8,100) at LAD
Alex Wood's matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers is much better than it seems. Baseball's premier offense against righties manages a .675 OPS against southpaws, making Atlanta's lefty a possible contrarian play.
Unfortunately, the breakout candidate has notched an unappetizing 32 strikeouts and 16 walks through 47 innings. He has issued one or zero strikeouts on three separate occasions this season, and he's generating few whiffs with a 5.7 swinging-strike percentage. Don't take the risk in cash contests.
Josh Collmenter, Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,100) at STL
Nope. You're not considering the guy with a 5.19 ERA and 4.50 K/9 rate against a potent St. Louis lineup. Everybody will stack the Cardinals bats against Arizona's Josh Collmenter tonight.
All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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