MLB Mock Draft 2015: Complete Predictions for 1st-Round Prospects

Draft month has officially hit the American sports calendar. Later this month, Major League Baseball, the NBA and the NHL will each hold their first-year player drafts. In hockey and basketball, those nights are defined by teams plucking foundational talents around whom they will build for a decade

In baseball, it's about crossing your fingers and hoping it all works out.

Of the four major sports, baseball has by far the highest variance among its selections. Based on data complied by Matt Eddy of Baseball America, only about two-thirds of players selected in the first round (including supplemental picks) will even so much as make their way to the big leagues. About 17 percent of the players selected overall will someday make a big league trip.

And that doesn't mean anything resembling MLB success. Data in those samples includes pro busts, dudes who were just up for a cup of coffee and the relatively anonymous who manage to string together multiseason careers by playing the right position or being in the right situation. Stars, true foundational pieces, are tougher to come by in baseball than in any other sport.

With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the first round and see how things will shake out.

Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	School
1	Arizona Diamondbacks	Brendan Rodgers	SS	Lake Mary HS (FL)
2	Houston Astros	Dillon Tate	RHP	UC Santa Barbara
3	Colorado Rockies	Dansby Swanson	2B/SS	Vanderbilt
4	Texas Rangers	Alex Bregman	SS	LSU
5	Houston Astros	Kyle Tucker	OF	Plant HS (FL)
6	Minnesota Twins	Daz Cameron	OF	Eagle Landing HS (GA)
7	Boston Red Sox	Walker Buehler	RHP	Vanderbilt
8	Chicago White Sox	Tyler Jay	LHP	Illinois
9	Chicago Cubs	Carson Fulmer	RHP	Vanderbilt
10	Philadelphia Phillies	Jon Harris	RHP	Missouri State
11	Cincinnati Reds	Trenton Clark	OF	Richland HS (TX)
12	Miami Marlins	Mike Nikorak	RHP	Stroudsburg HS (PA)
13	Tampa Bay Rays	James Kaprielian	RHP	UCLA
14	Atlanta Braves	Tyler Stephenson	C	Kennesaw Mountain HS (GA)
15	Milwaukee Brewers	Kyle Funkhouser	RHP	Louisville
16	New York Yankees	Brady Aiken	LHP	IMG Academy
17	Cleveland Indians	Kolby Allard	LHP	San Clemente HS (CA)
18	San Francisco Giants	Phil Bickford	RHP	Southern Nevada JC
19	Pittsburgh Pirates	Kevin Newman	SS	Arizona
20	Oakland Athletics	Ian Happ	2B/OF	Cincinnati
21	Kansas City Royals	Cornelius Randolph	SS	Griffin HS (GA)
22	Detroit Tigers	Nathan Kirby	LHP	Virginia
23	St. Louis Cardinals	Michael Matuella	RHP	Duke
24	Los Angeles Dodgers	Chris Betts	C	Wilson HS (CA)
25	Baltimore Orioles	Garrett Whitley	OF	Niskayuna HS (NY)
26	Los Angeles Angels	Cody Ponce	RHP	Cal Poly Pomona
27	Colorado Rockies	D.J. Stewart	OF	Florida State
28	Atlanta Braves	. Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	Concordia Lutheran HS (TX)
29	Toronto Blue Jays	Ashe Russell	RHP	Cathedral HS (IN)
30	New York Yankees	Nick Plummer	OF	Brother Rice HS (MI)
31	San Francisco Giants	Andrew Benintendi	OF	Arkansas
32	Pittsburgh Pirates	Scott Kingery	2B	Arizona
33	Kansas City Royals	Dakota Chalmers	RHP	North Forsyth HS (GA)
34	Detroit Tigers	Donny Everett	RHP	Clarksville HS (TN)
35	Los Angeles Dodgers	Richie Martin	SS	Florida
36	Baltimore Orioles	Donnie Dewees	OF	North Florida

Top 5 Analysis

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary HS (FL)

The Diamondbacks will likely be selecting between Rodgers and a starting pitcher at this spot. They'll take a long look at Dillon Tate, Tyler Jay and maybe even a couple of other college arms before making their decision.

Rodgers is just the best long-term fit of the bunch. He's a two-way shortstop who may wind up developing 20-homer power. He hits for average, fields the ball well and should have no trouble sticking at shortstop from a positionality standpoint.

The possibility exists that Arizona cheaps out and goes with a player it knows will sign a below-level contract. Until we get word that's the case, Rodgers is the guy.

2. Houston Astros: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

After missing out on a foundational starter last year, the Astros are going to use one of their top five selections on a pitcher this year. Tate's emerged as a near-consensus pick as the class' top starter, a right-handed power thrower who can reach the upper 90s when he's rearing back. He went 8-4 with a 2.08 ERA for Santa Barbara this season and projects as an elite talent once he fine-tunes some areas.

With the Astros making a run at the AL West crown this year, it's possible they start targeting collegiate players to make that push permanent. A guy like Tate, who could be up within two years, is as good a start as any.

3. Colorado Rockies: Dansby Swanson, 2B/SS, Vanderbilt

Eric Francis/Associated Press

I'm not quite sure whether he'll wind up at shortstop or second base as a pro, but it doesn't really matter. Colorado is essentially a blank slate. Troy Tulowitzki is 30 and the subject of near-constant trade rumors. DJ LeMahieu is a nice story but ultimately a replacement-level player.

Swanson grades as a solid all-around prospect. He can hit for average, can get on base and has the quick-twitch speed necessary to be a good defensive middle infielder. As is so often the case with young shortstops, minor league coaches will have to see if Swanson really has the arm to hack it at the infield's most important position or if he will move elsewhere.

Either way, Swanson's a lock for the top five.

4. Texas Rangers: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

It's the year of the shortstop. Bregman is the third shortstop to go off the board in our first four picks, which is a total possibility later this month. The LSU product is Jose Altuve, both in terms of his tiny stature and his excellent hitting skills.

Bregman is going to hit for average, has the potential to add 20-homer pop to his arsenal and might be the best overall hitter in this class. Fielding is a bit of an issue, though; second base certainly isn't out of the question as a position switch. That's not enough to keep him from Texas, which would probably be just fine with him moving to second anyway given its glut of shortstops in the system.

5. Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant HS (FL)

After going for a near-lock in their rotation, the Astros swing for the fences with Tucker. The Plant High School product is raw—four years is probably a conservative estimate for when he'll reach the bigs—but has the tools to do nearly everything at a plus rate. He can hit for average and some power, fields the ball well and has a strong arm.

The Astros have enough outfield talent to allow Tucker to develop. This should work out just fine, assuming he's still on the board.