Belmont Stakes 2015: Early Prediction for the Final Triple Crown Race

Interest in the Belmont Stakes will build over the next two-plus weeks as American Pharoah prepares for the 1 ½-mile race that could see him basking in glory by the time it comes to its conclusion.

The horse racing world is dreaming of the same thing it has wanted since Steve Cauthen guided Affirmed to a stirring victory over Alydar 37 years ago. When Affirmed put his nose in front at the wire, he became horse racing's second consecutive Triple Crown winner and the third in six years.

The sport has not seen another since then. Thirteen horses have gone to the post at Belmont Park with a chance to win horse racing's most coveted honor, and all of them have failed.

American Pharoah seems like a good choice to end the dry spell. But so did California Chrome last year. Based on talent and recent form, there's no reason American Pharoah won't get the job done, and it may not even be close.

While weather, workouts, health and comfort on the track could impact the outcome of the race, we look at the talent of the primary horses scheduled to run June 6 and offer an early prediction on the outcome.

Horse	Odds
American Pharoah	10-11
Frosted	5-1
Materiality	15-2
Mubtaahij	14-1
Carpe Diem	18-1
Madefromlucky	22-1
Keen Ice	25-1
Divining Rod	25-1
Tale of Verve	28-1
Conquest Curlinate	33-1
War Story	33-1
Frammento	50-1

American Pharoah

American Pharoah truly has the look of a superhorse and a Triple Crown winner. Trainer Bob Baffert has done a superb job of preparing his horse to come up with peak efforts in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, and if any trainer in the sport can prepare a horse for the most grueling of the Triple Crown races, it's Baffert.

The most impressive aspect that American Pharoah brings with him to Belmont Park is the significant improvement he had in the Preakness. The Kentucky Derby was a major test, but when American Pharoah got himself to a third-place position at the first half-mile mark, it meant he did not have to battle through traffic in the 18-horse field. Experienced jockey Victor Espinoza merely guided American Pharoah to the top of the stretch before turning him loose for his Derby victory.

American Pharoah (odds of 10-11, according to OddsShark) could have been spooked by the torrential rain that hit Pimlico shortly before the start of the Preakness, but he stayed calm, ran quickly to the front and then pulled away down the stretch. He was an easy and powerful winner, and that should set him up for a winning run in the Belmont Stakes.

Carpe Diem

Carpe Diem (18-1) may be the horse that Baffert and Espinoza have to be most concerned about. Trainer Todd Pletcher has a history of doing well in the Belmont Stakes with horses that struggled in the Derby. He is hoping that Carpe Diem, who finished 10th at Churchill Downs, will come up with a strong performance. Carpe Diem won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes earlier in the year, so he is certainly capable of running well against strong competition. 

Carpe Diem also has the pedigree to go the distance, and we expect him to give American Pharoah a major challenge.

Frosted

Don't overlook Frosted (5-1) as a horse that can hit the board in the Belmont Stakes. He had a terrible trip in the Derby, he was in 15th place after ¾ of a mile, and he appeared to be hopelessly out of contention. However, Frosted hit his stride at that point and rallied to finish fourth. It seems likely that Frosted won't have the early problems that he did in the Derby, and he may be able to hit the board.

Materiality

Materiality (15-2) is a high-quality horse who had been unbeaten in three races prior to the Kentucky Derby. However, he was not prepared for the huge field and huge crowd at Churchill Downs, and he finished sixth. He has a chance to do a bit better at Belmont Park because he is a very talented runner and now has a little bit of experience under the spotlight. Still, it's hard to see him finding a spot in the top three in the Belmont Stakes.

Predicted Finish

1. American Pharoah

2. Carpe Diem

3. Frosted