With Corey Seager Looming, Dodgers Must Keep Jimmy Rollins on Short Leash

The Los Angeles Dodgers' new-look front office has already struck gold with an "out with the old, in with the new" maneuver. Its first was swapping out Matt Kemp for Joc Pederson, which has been a major victory.

So now, we wonder when the Dodgers might try to strike gold again, this time at shortstop. 

That's where the Dodgers presently have 16-year veteran Jimmy Rollins stationed, but top prospect Corey Seager is knocking on the door. And though Rollins' job doesn't seem to be in danger, the Dodgers' patience with him should indeed grow thinner as Seager's knocks get louder.

It's largely because of Rollins' performance that Seager's knocks are sounding so loud. He's not making a whole lot of noise in his first year with the Dodgers following an offseason trade with the Philadelphia Phillies, hitting just .192 with a .610 OPS through 38 games.

That's a bad look for a guy who's 36 years old, and it looks even worse in the context of his recent history. Though Rollins had a solid season in 2014, that came in the wake of maybe the worst season of his career in 2013. As such, he's spent much of the last two seasons looking over the hill.

Meanwhile, down on the farm, there's Seager steadily advancing up the hill.

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After the Dodgers drafted him 18th overall back in 2012, Seager quickly established himself as one of the best hitting shortstops in the minors in his first three professional seasons. And as his page at Baseball-Reference.com can show, the 21-year-old came into 2015 as a consensus top-10 prospect.

Seager took that hype and made good on it in his first 20 games at Double-A Tulsa, batting .375 with a 1.082 OPS. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Seager didn't get off to the best start at Oklahoma City, batting just .189 in his first 10 games. But the lefty swinger has come on strong lately, hitting .387 over seven games heading into Wednesday. That comes with no walks and no extra-base hits, mind you, but it does indicate that he's getting his bearings.

With Seager going in one direction and Rollins going in the other, it's tempting to think that the Dodgers could make a move in the very near future. But before anyone gets all hot and bothered, let's be real for a second and grant there's no need to rush.

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As poorly as Rollins has looked at the plate, he can rest easy knowing that he has two safety nets: the Dodgers' patience and his glove.

The Dodgers aren't about to give up on a veteran such as Rollins after less than six weeks. And at least publicly, they're standing by the eye test.

“I think Jimmy has been fine for a little while actually,” Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly told Tony Ciniglio of the Los Angeles Daily News. “I don’t know if the numbers have sowed it out, but just from what we see watching him at the plate and contact and everything else, I feel like Jimmy’s been swinging the bat well.”

In the meantime, the Dodgers really don't need Rollins to produce on offense. They entered Wednesday ranked second in the National League in runs, and that actually sells their offense short. In terms of adjusted offense, they're giving the 1927 New York Yankees a run for their money.

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With L.A.'s offense clobbering the ball even without help from Rollins, where it really needs him is on defense. Fortunately, that's also where the former Gold Glover is still useful.

According to defensive runs saved, Rollins entered Wednesday's action having saved three runs above average on defense; ultimate zone rating put him at minus-0.5 for the season but only because it was holding Rollins' six errors against him. Range-wise, he's been fine with 0.3 range runs above average.

And the way things are going now, Rollins' defense stands out as a necessity rather than a luxury. With Brandon McCarthy already out for the season and Hyun-Jin Ryu likely joining him, the Dodgers pitching staff is spread a bit thin. In times like these, you want as much defense as possible.

More than anything, that's the reason for the Dodgers to uphold the status quo at shortstop.

Seager may be universally recognized as an elite prospect, but seemingly nobody believes that he and his 6'4" frame are a real fit at shortstop.

As ESPN.com's Keith Law put it: "Unless he experiences a miraculous change in body type, [Seager] isn't going to be a shortstop in the majors. Cal Ripken Jr. has been the only one Seager's height to stay at the position, and Seager, who turns 21 in April, already has about 20 pounds on Ripken..."

Couple this with the fact that, though tantalizing, Seager's recent hot streak has occurred over much too small a sample size, and you get two really good reasons for why now is not the time to promote him. As is usually the case with prospects, patience is the way to go for now.

But maybe not for much longer. Because eventually, swapping out Rollins' glove for Seager's bat could simply make too much sense.

Remember what Mattingly said about Rollins looking better at the plate than his results indicate?

Yeah, well, that's not entirely true.

On the bright side, Rollins' walk and strikeout rates are both still much better than average. But the catch is that his contact has been anything but loud contact, as Baseball Savant put Rollins' average exit velocity of 83.9 miles per hour at third lowest in MLB heading into Wednesday's action.

And rather than getting better, it's only getting worse. After averaging 84.9 miles per hour in April, Rollins' average exit velocity has sunk to 82.8 miles per hour in May.

Because everyone else—literally everyone else—on the Dodgers has been swinging the bat so well, this isn't a problem for now. However, the chief fear in Chavez Ravine these days should be that the Dodgers offense can't possibly keep up this historic pace forever.

Which isn't an unfounded fear. It's more than likely that a collective cooldown is coming. And if Rollins stays cold while everyone else cools down, then it's going to be much, much harder to justify tolerating his bat for the sake of his glove. 

And this, of course, is when the idea of calling on Seager will make sense.

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While there are doubts about how Seager's glove will play, there are no doubts about his bat. His career batting line of .315/.378/.538 in the minors underscores why MLB.com highlighted him as arguably the "biggest offensive threat among shortstop prospects," and he has individual hitting talents that get right at the excitement glands.

Despite the fact he does have a swing-and-miss element to his game, B/R's Mike Rosenbaum likes how Seager has an "easy, direct swing" that produces plenty of line drives. Just as important, he wrote that there "aren’t enough positive things to say about his ability to pick apart pitchers and hit in all counts."

To boot, Seager also has some power to offer. Baseball Prospectus says Seager's swing generates "easy, natural lift" that "increasingly produces backspin and carry." As he's gained more experience, he's also improved his ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields.

If none of this has you excited, maybe the words of Seager's Double-A skipper will do the deed.

"He's better than everybody else, it's just that simple," said the beautifully named Razor Shines, via MLB.com. "It's the way a young Willie Mays was better than everybody else or the way a young Hank Aaron was better than everybody else. I don't think you can explain it. I think he's this gifted. He is by far the best player I have ever managed."

It's obviously asking too much for Seager to actually be Willie Mays or Hank Aaron upon his arrival, but it's not hard to imagine his bat being a shot in the arm to a Dodgers offense that had gone cold after scorching its way through the first five weeks of the season.

And if the only casualty of Seager's promotion is Rollins, well, so be it. It wouldn't be a pleasant way to wave goodbye to a guy who's been a really good player for a really long time. But given that his $11 million salary is chump change to the Dodgers, cutting him loose wouldn't hurt too badly.

Again, Rollins probably is and indeed should be safe for now. His quiet bat is of no consequence as long as the rest of the club's bats remain red-hot, and his defense is a real asset in a time of need.

But there's no reason for the Dodgers to give Rollins a long leash. Seager is a classic case of an elite prospect who's running out of things to prove, and it may not be long before the Dodgers need his bat more than they need Rollins' glove.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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