Realistic 2015 Expectations for Kimi Raikkonen After Spanish Grand Prix
At the Bahrain Grand Prix last month, Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen ended a 25-race streak without a podium finish.
Only one other time in his Formula One career had he gone even 17 races without finishing in the top three—and those were the first 17 races of his career, in 2001 with Sauber.
That streak ended at the first race of 2002, where the "Iceman" was a fighting third in his first race for McLaren, behind Michael Schumacher and Juan Pablo Montoya. And it was largely uphill from there: a world championship with Ferrari in 2007, a sabbatical and successful comeback with Lotus and 20 race victories.
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But then he returned to Ferrari last season, struggled with the car and promptly turned in his worst-ever finish—12th in the drivers' standings. The unflappable Finn, it seemed, had been flapped.
This season promised more.
Raikkonen has a new team-mate, his friend Sebastian Vettel, and a new car that incoming Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene specifically asked his engineers to design around Raikkonen's strengths, per ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson.
So far, though, Raikkonen hasn't really delivered on that promise. Yes, he was second in Bahrain, but Vettel has been on the podium in four of the five races this year and he won in Malaysia.
What is next for Raikkonen after another disappointing weekend in Spain, where he finished fifth and was unable to get past his countryman Valtteri Bottas, who recently denied rumours he is in line for Raikkonen's seat next year, per Autosport's Ian Parkes?
If he can get comfortable in the car, Raikkonen has the ability to regularly challenge Vettel and at least fight for the third step on the podium.
Against healthy Mercedes cars, it is hard to see him winning a race in 2015, although, as Vettel demonstrated in Malaysia, it is possible if the right circumstances come together.
Raikkonen is currently fourth in the drivers' championship, and anything less than that at the end of the season will be a big disappointment. He is already 28 points behind Vettel in third, however, so overtaking him will be a challenge.
The other question with Raikkonen is his motivation. Arrivabene is dangling a 2016 contract option as a carrot to urge the Finn to perform, according to journalist Adam Cooper, but how motivated can Raikkonen be knowing he isn't fighting for a win before the race even starts?
Raikkonen's many, many fans will not want to hear it, but it is also reasonable to expect that 2015 will be his last season in F1. He will be 36 years old by the end of the season and it is not beyond the realm of scientific possibility that his best days are behind him. There are few athletes (steroid-assisted baseball players notwithstanding) who get better as they approach the age of 40.
It would be a mistake for Raikkonen to hang on for too long. Michael Schumacher's comeback with Mercedes did not really detract from his overall legacy because he was so good earlier with Benetton and Ferrari. Raikkonen is a great talent, too, although not at Schumacher's level. A long decline would be more harmful to his legacy.
And even if Raikkonen does want to stay, Ferrari might not be interested. If they think Bottas is a future champion, they would be foolish not to sign him if he becomes available. Unless Raikkonen's form improves significantly, he might just find there is no room for him at Ferrari (or at any other team with a competitive car) next year.
The carefully PR-controlled world of modern F1 will sorely miss Raikkonen whenever he does leave. Indeed, that is one of the reasons for Raikkonen's immense popularity: He is one of the only drivers who regularly provides quotes that don't sound like they have been put through a heavy spin cycle.
Or maybe his exit won't come this year—maybe he will manage a surprise victory or two at some point and find a way to challenge Vettel, if not the Mercs. A rejuvenated Raikkonen would be great for the sport, which is twisting itself into knots trying to improve the show (the latest Strategy Group meeting has apparently agreed to more tinkering with the regulations, per the BBC's Andrew Benson).
Either way, time is running out. Even the most popular and most talented athletes grow old and can no longer perform. Maybe Raikkonen has reached that stage already, or maybe he is still waiting to pull back the curtain on a surprise third act in his career.
For the sake of the sport and its fans, let's hope he has a bit of magic left in his tank.
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