2015 Preakness: Post Positions and Predictions for Win, Place and Show
It's fitting that the No. 1 horse in the 2015 Preakness Stakes field drew the first post position for Saturday's race. The Kentucky Derby winner, American Pharoah, will be on the far inside. For some horses and in some fields, that would be a tough spot to win from, but don't expect that to be the case for American Pharoah.
American Pharoah drew the 17th position at Churchill Downs and galloped to victory with a strong finish. Starting on the outside likely would have been trainer Bob Baffert's preference, but his horse is strong enough to overcome the less-than-ideal post position.
| 1 | American Pharoah | 5-6 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 15-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 16-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 40-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 16-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
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The horse's ability to close on Carpe Diem, Firing Line and Dortmund at the Derby proves he has some serious fight in him. If Baffert's horse doesn't win the Preakness, it won't be because of the starting spot.
Also, the first position isn't as treacherous in a field that only includes eight horses as it would have been at the Derby, where there were 18 competitors. With fewer horses on the track, American Pharoah is less likely to feel the pressure of a large field bearing down and pressing him to the back of the pack.
Baffert's other horse, Dortmund, didn't do much better with the second post position. Still, both are the favorites to win the 2015 Preakness. Baffert was shocked by his lack of luck when it came to the draw. According to the Associated Press (h/t News-Record.com), Baffert said:
“I can’t believe I drew the 1-2 of all draws. It’s the luck of the draw. I don’t love it, but it will be easy to watch.”
Should these starting spots affect the final results?
The Cream Will Still Rise to the Top
American Pharoah is still the pick to win because of the aforementioned qualities. While Dortmund is the second-best horse in the field in my opinion, he's not the pick to place. I was unimpressed by the way he finished at the Derby.
Considering Dortmund will have six charging horses on one side and American Pharoah kicking it into another gear on the final quarter of the race on the other, Dortmund seems like a candidate to fade down the stretch.
Because he, American Pharoah and Firing Line have the rest of the field somewhat outclassed, Dortmund won't fall completely out of the money, but he'll have to settle for a show performance.
Firing Line will make the win tough for American Pharoah. With the good fortunes to start from eighth spot, Firing Line could easily be the favorite. In the final seconds of the Preakness, it'll be a two-horse race between Firing Line and American Pharoah. Look for the latter to win by a nose.
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