Preakness 2015 Post Positions: Field Info, Odds and Predictions
The Kentucky Derby was a loaded and deep field with 19 horses and a number of contenders. By contrast, the Preakness Stakes is all about three horses and the chase for history.
American Pharoah took home the title at Churchill Downs, but he needed a strong finishing kick to overcome impressive starts from Dortmund and Firing Line. It was a dramatic finish that had horse racing fans holding their collective breath, and all three headline the field at the Pimlico Race Course.
Maybe we will get an encore.
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Here is a look at the post positions and odds for the entire field, as well as some predictions for the top three finishers.
| 1 | American Pharoah | 4-5 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7-2 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 20-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 15-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 30-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 20-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 12-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 4-1 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Predicted Top-Three Finishers
First Place: American Pharoah
The last time horse racing saw a Triple Crown winner was 1978 when Affirmed achieved the elusive feat. American Pharoah is two races away from etching his name in history.
First, the three-time Grade 1 stakes winner must get past Dortmund and Firing Line yet again, this time at the Preakness. American Pharoah has plenty of momentum on his side with five consecutive victories, although he landed the inside rail Wednesday during the post draw.
That is not as devastating as it would be at Churchill Downs because the Preakness only boasts eight horses in the field compared to 19 at this year’s Kentucky Derby, but American Pharoah must start quickly to avoid too much traffic at the starting gate on the inside.
It is not difficult to envision a scenario where he falls behind early like the Derby and simply doesn’t have an opening against the rail.
While the Kentucky Derby start was not encouraging, American Pharoah won five races in six starts by more than a combined 23 lengths. He proved before Churchill Downs that he is a capable front-runner, and that is the formula for victory along the inside rail at Pimlico.
Victor Mather of The New York Times believes American Pharoah is still the horse to beat, although he offered a word of warning for bettors:
"It is hard to find fault with American Pharoah. He has won five straight races and vanquished a strong field in the Kentucky Derby. There is no reason to think he will not come out firing again on Saturday. From a bettor’s standpoint, though, it might be wise to look elsewhere. There is no guarantee that everything will go right for him again, and his odds are likely to be quite short.
"
Everything broke perfectly at Churchill Downs when an open lane emerged on the outside. That may not happen again at the Preakness, but American Pharoah demonstrated that he can come from behind or win as a front-runner in his last five races. That versatile skill set will help him navigate a small field and pick up a victory in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Second Place: Firing Line
Firing Line looked ready to win the Kentucky Derby when he overtook Dortmund, but he ultimately watched American Pharoah take the title from the outside.
It was yet another disappointing result for a horse that has four losses by less than two lengths. Still, Firing Line finished in first or second place in all six of his career races and is a legitimate threat to win the Preakness over American Pharoah.
Firing Line drew the outside post, which isn’t ideal, but it also opens up possibilities because the two favorites are on the inside. While Dortmund and American Pharoah battle for position inside, Firing Line can make a charge on the outside, much like American Pharoah did at Churchill Downs when Firing Line and Dortmund were near the rail at the Derby.
Trainer Simon Callaghan also believes Firing Line is ready for this race, per Alicia Wincze Hughes of the Lexington Herald-Leader:
"I think the spacing that we had in our two prior races ... six weeks both times, I think it's actually going to help us out for the Preakness. We really like the signs and signals he's been showing us since the Kentucky Derby. He's done everything we'd like to see, and he's taken the race extremely well.
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Look for Firing Line to take advantage of the extra space on the outside and secure second place. He is relatively fresh, according to Callaghan, and has a golden opportunity thanks to the unfavorable draw for the two favorites.
Firing Line will ultimately fall short against the Derby champion, but he will hold off Dortmund once again.
Third Place: Dortmund
On paper, Dortmund is the biggest competition for American Pharoah, but he will not finish in second place.
Being next to American Pharoah will work as a disadvantage. Dortmund will fall behind the Kentucky Derby winner early, which will cut off the inside and leave Dortmund in some traffic. He is such a magnificent horse that he will still find a way to recover for a third-place finish, but Firing Line has the outside and American Pharoah will set the pace on the inside.
The Kentucky Derby was Dortmund’s first loss of his career after six victories.
A victory at Pimlico is not out of the question if Dortmund seizes the initial lead like he did at Churchill Downs, especially because the Preakness is shorter than the Derby.
American Pharoah had nothing but open track in front of him on the stretch run of the Derby, which is one reason he stormed back from behind and took the title on an impressive finishing kick. If Dortmund grabs that lead, he can close off the lanes for American Pharoah on the inside and end the Triple Crown dreams.
It is an enticing game plan, but American Pharoah will use his overpowering speed to take the lead himself.
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