Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Strategy, Primer for May 5

While looking for upside is important for your daily fantasy baseball team, you want to pick players you can trust.

Although the first month is littered with fluke stats and small sample size results, we are now getting to see which players are for real. Whether they have had good numbers or not, you need to be able to predict the ones who will succeed in the future.

Based on what we have seen to this point, these are players to pick and avoid in Tuesday's contests.

Pitchers to Draft

Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians ($8,600)

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

A pitcher who can rack up strikeouts makes a bad start tolerable and turns a good game into a great one. Danny Salazar has helped fantasy owners in this way so far with 28 strikeouts in 19 innings over three starts.

Considering the youngster finished last season with 9.82 strikeouts per nine innings, you can trust this to keep up as he helps out your team.

Michael Pineda, New York Yankees ($7,600)

While Michael Pineda hasn't exactly had huge games so far this year, he has been better than his 3.73 ERA would indicate. Thanks to a 32-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he has an FIP of 2.20 to rank among the best in the majors.

He has been a bit unlucky this year, but this is a chance to get great value for a talented pitcher before his price starts going up.

Pitchers to Avoid

Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox ($8,700)

GAIL BURTON/Associated Press

The last start was certainly a strange one. The Chicago White Sox were forced to play in an empty stadium against the Baltimore Orioles due to rioting within the city. This resulted in a miserable game for Jeff Samardzija where he allowed seven earned runs.

After explaining his disappointment from a competitive side, the pitcher told Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune his thoughts on pushing it out of his mind:

"

The other side of me looks at it for what it was from afar – a unique game and unique situation. For me, it was about that routine and being off for over a week, and that's why it's easy to turn the page and move on to the next one. ... You want to get back in that rhythm and get in that five-, six-day routine.

"

Even if he can bounce back mentally, Samardzija hasn't been great all year, allowing a lot of hits and striking few people out. Going against a solid Detroit Tigers lineup, you might as well avoid the risk.

Chad Billingsley, Philadelphia Phillies ($7,300)

Tuesday will be Chad Billingsley's first start of the season and his first appearance in the majors since April of 2013. Even if he pitches well, it's unlikely the staff will allow him to throw too many pitches after such a long break.

There are way too many other safer picks available at similar prices to go with this much of a risk.

Hitters to Draft

Lucas Duda, New York Mets ($4,000)

Nate Shron/Getty Images

Although he only has two home runs this year, Lucas Duda is becoming a better all-around hitter. His batting average is up to .304 from .253 last season. It's only a matter of time before he starts knocking balls out of the park.

Against Bud Norris and his 12.18 ERA, Duda could be in for big things.

Stephen Vogt, C, Oakland Athletics ($3,900)

Trevor May has been a solid pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, but his 4.43 ERA is nothing spectacular. This means he shouldn't be able to slow down Stephen Vogt, one of the top hitters in baseball so far this season.

The left-handed hitter has been crushing righties this year and should be ready for another huge day at a premium position.

Hitters to Avoid

Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,500)

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Although Ryan Braun has been coming alive at the plate a bit lately with his power stroke, he is still struggling with his consistency. That isn't likely to change against Zack Greinke, who has held Braun to one hit in seven at-bats against him.

Mark Trumbo, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,200)

Every at-bat for Mark Trumbo represents a chance for a long home run. However, the current cost puts him among the best hitters in baseball, and he simply hasn't been that this season.

If you're going to take a long-shot bet on your team, make it a cheaper one.

Team to Stack

Houston Astros

This has been one of the hottest teams in baseball with Jose Altuve, Jake Marisnick and George Springer putting up huge numbers. The players aren't just getting hits, they are also stealing bases and getting runs.

There is no reason for this to stop Tuesday at home against former Astros pitcher Wandy Rodriguez.

Note: All prices courtesy of DraftKings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. 

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