2015 NFL Draft: Fact or Fiction for Most Recent Draft Rumors
The 2015 NFL draft is now less than a month away, which is the perfect time to try and make some sense of the many rumors that are flying around media outlets, via NFL insiders and unnamed sources.
Looking at the most recent gossip, we attempt to break down which rumors are fact and which are fiction.
Of course, when it comes to the NFL draft, nearly anything can and often does happen. Nevertheless, consider this a disclaimer to those who may mistake my convincing arguments to be the affirmations of a magical fortune teller.
The Jaguars Are Taking Florida Edge-Rusher Dante Fowler
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Likely first-round pass-rusher Dante Fowler said he thinks he’s a perfect fit in Jacksonville because he’s everything Jaguars’ coach Gus Bradley is looking for as an edge-rusher, as per the Florida Times-Union:
“I’d be stunned, because of the scheme that coach Gus has. I can set the edge and I can come off the edge. I’d be surprised, but that’s how the draft goes. I’m just happy I’ll be drafted on the first day.”
According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Titans are going to be hosting Fowler this week, along with a few other names.
Fowler is 6'3" and 261 pounds, and he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.60 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Verdict: Fiction
Based on other rumors that will be discussed in the next article, it’s starting to look more and more like USC’s Leonard Williams will be available for the Jags at pick No. 3. If Williams is in fact available at that pick, there’s simply no way they pick Fowler over him.
Furthermore, the Jaguars are getting pretty heavy into their analytics department, and that should tell them Fowler’s perceived athleticism is fool’s gold.
His slow short shuttle and 3-cone times just so happen to be two of the most important times for an edge-rusher. Besides, Fowler was always an underachiever throughout his career at Florida for a reason. This is a pick the Jaguars absolutely need to hit on and Fowler is just too risky.
Marcus Mariota Will Be Taken with the Second-Overall Pick
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Ken Whisenhunt recently made comments that got people thinking the Titans are going to take Mariota:
"If we pick him at No. 2, you definitely think he can be the Day 1 starter," Whisenhunt said, according to Jim Corbett of USA Today Sports. "He was impressive. ... Just the short time we spent with him on the board, he was very good."
According to NFL Media reporter Albert Breer, the Titans are set to bring in the quarterback Thursday for a pre-draft visit.
Former Giants’ Super Bowl-winning quarterback Phil Simms seems to think the Titans should pass on the QB, according to Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean:
"If Jake Locker didn't fit the coaching staff there, what makes you think Marcus Mariota fits the coaching staff in Tennessee? If the Titans don't take Mariota, I'm sure there will be a lot of negative reaction from fans, media across the country. They'll say, 'They need a franchise quarterback, so how could they not do it?'
The Titans would have to make a whole lot of alterations to the offense to fit Mariota and really teach what he does. I just don't see it.
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Whisenhunt has a history with big, strong-armed quarterbacks, which seems to suggest Simms is correct. If they do opt out of the Mariota sweepstakes, they might be looking for a talented defensive addition.
Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean reports the top defensive prospect Leonard Williams will visit with the team this week.
The Titans have Jurrell Casey up front and they’ve signed Brian Orakpo to go with Derrick Morgan in pass-rushing roles.
Another rumored scenario centers on a trade with one of the numerous QB-needy teams out there. CBS NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reports some team will trade up with Tennessee to snag the former Duck. One NFL general manager who is paying close attention to the Mariota market believes "He's going second overall. I don't know to which team, but he's going second overall," As per Las Canfora.
There seems to be some truth to the trade possibility.
According to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report, the Bears have considered the possibility of trading up from their No. 7 spot in the first round to draft Mariota.
"Marcus Mariota has gained more and more traction in Chicago, of all places. Despite the fact that John Fox was brought in as head coach with the presumed idea that he was going to fix Jay Cutler...there are some people in the Bears organization...who are believing that Mariota might be the answer and that ultimately trading Cutler may actually work out.
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Whoever that team will be, it’s worth noting the cost of trading up to the second-overall pick is excessive. In 2012, the Washington Redskins traded three first-round picks and a second-round choice to move up four spots, selecting Robert Griffin III at No. 2 overall.
Verdict: Fact
The more I think about it, the more difficult it is for me to see the Titans passing up the opportunity to trade back if they’re not interested in a quarterback. This is a roster with too many needs, and trading back will give them more chances to improve.
I also think Whisenhunt is truly impressed with his quarterback Zach Mettenberger.
Finally, there should be little doubt at this point whether teams will be inquiring about trading into that spot.
The Jaguars Will Take Gordon or Gurley with the 36th Pick
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Hays Carlyon of Jacksonville.com reported Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell has a clear idea about the team’s goals this offseason. He quoted Caldwell as saying “Everything that we’re doing right now and throughout the draft will revolve around helping Blake [Bortles].”
It appears the Jags have filled out most of their team needs via free agency except the running back position. They were in the hunt to land DeMarco Murray but missed out on it. This developing scenario led Carlyon to this statement:
“If running backs Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley fall to the 36th overall pick, it should be a no-brainer.”
Yahoo Sports writer Rand Getlin reported back in mid-March the Jaguars planned to host Gordon for a pre-draft visit. This makes the interest extremely plausible, but also redundant. Entertaining this hypothetical is interesting at best, but hard to fathom unless there is more to Gurley’s knee than we realize.
The big question here is—does either of these RB’s make it past the first round and all the way to pick No. 36? Absolutely not, barring some unknown medical condition.
Verdict: Fiction
It’s just too hard for me to see a way that either Gordon or Gurley will be around in the second round. It’s really that simple.
However, if Gurley happens to slide further than expected because his knee didn’t check out, then that becomes a situation where the second round is still a risk and the “no-brainer” rumor no longer holds water.
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The Eagles Will Take Nelson Agholor in the First Round
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Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com had this to say in an article that posted on Saturday, “I think the Eagles are going to take wide receiver Nelson Agholor with their first-round pick.”
To start with, Shorr-Parks believes “scouts around the league consider him right up there with the likes of Alabama's Amari Cooper and West Virginia's Kevin White.”
Not only did Philly host Agholor for a pre-draft visit, but Chip Kelly also flew to Tampa Bay to work him out privately.
Shorr-Parks believes this is a similar situation to what happened with Jordan Matthews a year ago.
Verdict: Fiction
This draft is just too loaded with wide receivers, and Agholor is not worthy of being a first-round selection. I don’t doubt the Eagles’ interest in him, but taking him that high would be a major misstep for the organization. Not because Agholor is a talentless bum, but the opportunity cost would be significant.
There will be at least a few receivers available at No. 20 that have much more potential than Agholor.
Besides, we still haven’t ruled out the possibility the Eagles will be moving around in this first round and there’s a couple of DB options they could be considering more than Agholor, one of whom we will discuss later.
Miami WR Phillip Dorsett Could Sneak into the First Round
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According to ESPN’s Todd McShay, “Phillip Dorsett could sneak into the first round.”
McShay made this claim after Dorsett impressed the 32 teams in attendance at Miami’s pro day.
This goes back to similar points I made about Nelson Agholor being drafted by the Eagles in the first round. Though it’s certainly possible this can happen, my guess is it’s unlikely either he or Phillip Dorsett get drafted in Round 1.
Verdict: Fiction
In NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah’s top 50 prospects list, one-fifth of the prospects listed are receivers. Of those receivers, Dorsett ranks last of the group, though he still ranked in the top 50.
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has Dorsett ranked 10th at the position also but has him 51st overall.
In order for Dorsett to go in the first round, it would have to be either a record number of receivers going in the first round or Dorsett jumping ahead of some really talented names, but I just don’t see that happening.
Speaking of guys rumored to be potentially jumping into the first round, let’s check see what the next slide has for us...
UConn CB Byron Jones Potential First-Rounder
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NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah is a former NFL scout whose credibility is on the rise in a major way. Personally I have a ton of respect for his work and his opinions, which is why it's noteworthy he likes Jones.
Remember a few slides back when the Eagles were supposedly taking WR Nelson Agholor? Well, this guy from UConn is partly why that scenario has been deemed fictional.
In his Feb. 25 mock draft, Jeremiah has the Eagles selecting Jones with the 20th pick.
"Jones put on a show in Indy, but he's much more than a workout warrior," Jeremiah wrote "He was a four-year starter at UConn with toughness and smarts. That fits the Chip Kelly profile."
Verdict: Fact
There was quite a bit of media captures showing Chip Kelly and Byron Jones having a nice chat after the pro day was over.
Jones measures in as the most physically gifted cornerback I’ve scouted in four years of utilizing my draft metric.
In addition, Pro Football Focus has offered up the statistical nugget claiming “QBs had a passer rating of 26.3 when targeting UConn CB Byron Jones.”
Considering the service that created this stat is being utilized by NFL teams, it’s hard to imagine a guy with this level of talent and production will not be drafted in the first round.
Kevin White Will Be the First WR Taken
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According to NFL.com’s list of mock drafts from their team of analysts, four of the six experts have West Virginia’s Kevin White as the first wide receiver taken in the draft.
If these mock drafts are any indication, the Oakland Raiders will be selecting a wide receiver one way or the other, and the front-runner appears to be Kevin White.
Verdict: Fiction
If you ask me, this move smells like a bad idea—so much so I have to declare the rumor to be fictional.
I understand White is a big, fast receiver with enormous upside akin to a Julio Jones, but we have to remember that in order to see that type of prospect, we’re forced to do a lot of projecting.
Kevin White picked apart elite college defenders in the same way Julio did, despite having better stats than Julio in his final year.
Besides, the real reason White shouldn’t be the top pick is because Amari Cooper is the better receiver.
While at Alabama, Cooper averaged 15.2 yards per catch over 40 games while White averaged just 13.6 in 24 games. In addition, Cooper scored more than twice as many points than White while going against better defenses.
Even though White had the better 40-yard dash time, Cooper actually had the faster multi-directional time when averaging their 40, short-shuttle and 3-cone times together. Then, when you factor in the player’s weight, Cooper proved to be the faster prospect per pound.
Ryan Riddle is a former NFL player who currently writes for Bleacher Report
For more Draft info, Follow him on Twitter @Ryan_Riddle.
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