What Recent History Suggests About Miami Dolphins' 2015 Draft Plan
You're going to read a lot of Miami Dolphins big boards and mock drafts between now and draft day, but what can the recent past tell us about what they will do in this year's draft?
Before answering that question, we have to look at whose recent history we're referring to.
The Dolphins power structure not only has a general manager in Dennis Hickey, but above him an executive vice president of football operations in Mike Tannenbaum.
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Both men have had extensive experience with the draft, as Hickey ran Miami's 2014 draft as general manager, as well as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' drafts from 2011-2013 as the Bucs' director of player personnel. Tannenbaum was the New York Jets' general manager from 2006-2012.
It is the history of these two men that we will look at, more so than the Dolphins' history. The reason being that Hickey is in his second year, while Tannenbaum is in his first year with the organization.
Recent history suggests different approaches to the draft from both men. Hickey tends to be more conservative when it comes to the draft, selecting the best available player on the board that fits a need. Only once did Hickey trade up in the first round, and that was in 2012, when he traded the Buccaneers' second- and fourth-round selections to Denver in exchange for the 31st pick, which would eventually be used on running back Doug Martin.
In the same draft, Hickey traded back into the second round by sending their third- and fourth-round selections to Houston in exchange for a second- and seventh-rounder, with the second-round pick being used on linebacker Lavonte David.
Hickey also has a tendency to double down on positions of need, which can be seen in the Buccaneers' 2011 draft (their top-two picks were used on defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers), 2012 (when the Bucs drafted linebacker Najee Goode in the fifth round along with David) and in 2014 with the Dolphins at wide receiver, with Jarvis Landry going in the second round and Matt Hazel being picked in the sixth round.
These are steady drafts that focused on filling holes—the best case of that came last season when each pick seemed to fill a specific hole on the team. A right tackle was needed, and in the first round Ja'Wuan James was picked. With Jarvis Landry in the second round came a badly needed receiver that produced more yards after the catch and was better suited for Ryan Tannehill's game, and in Round 3 the Dolphins picked a project offensive lineman in Billy Turner, who played tackle in college but is being groomed to play guard in the NFL.
Hickey goes for substance, while Tannenbaum brings more flare to the party.
Tannenbaum's 2012 draft with the Jets is probably better off being forgotten. However, his 2011 draft saw him bring on Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis with the Jets' first two picks of the draft (first and third round). Both players remain key parts of the Jets defensive line today, with Wilkerson being a star and Ellis being a key rotational player.
In 2010 and 2009, the Jets were low on draft picks due to Tannenbaum's penchant for trading up in the draft or trading for established players. While the 2010 draft is, like 2012, a disaster (Joe McKnight was the best player taken in 2010), in 2009 Tannenbaum traded up for the chance to draft Mark Sanchez, then went on to also pick Shonn Greene and guard Matt Slauson. Say what you will about how Sanchez's career is going now, but all three of those 2009 picks for the Jets were key cogs in their run to the AFC title game that season.
The three best players Tannenbaum drafted do fit two positions the Dolphins are in need of: cornerback and offensive line. In 2006, he drafted left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold, two players who now, nine seasons later, remain key parts of the Jets organization.
Then, Tannenbaum's best pick came a year later when he drafted cornerback Darrelle Revis in Round 1.
Revis was the result of a trade-up, which is something Tannenbaum did quite often. Tannenbaum's Jets also traded up in Round 1 in 2008 (to pick up tight end Dustin Keller) and 2009 (the Mark Sanchez trade).
What does this tell us about what the Dolphins will do? It tells us to be prepared for a trade. I do not expect the Dolphins to pick at 14 on draft day, with the more likely scenario being a trade down in order to pick up either a third-round pick (to replace the one traded to New Orleans in the Kenny Stills trade), or even possibly up if there's a player Tannenbaum is high on projected to go early.
As for what the Dolphins will target, it will be a very pressing need, most likely a guard or wide receiver first. However, just about anything is possible at this juncture with two men with such differing draft philosophies running the team as co-captains.
D.N.H.
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