Michigan State Spartans vs. Oklahoma Sooners Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The last two times a No. 7 seed has taken on a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, the seventh seeds have won outright. However, in a bit of an oddsmaking quirk, seventh-seeded Michigan State is a short point-spread favorite over third-seeded Oklahoma for the second East Region semifinal Friday night in Syracuse.

Opening spread

The Spartans opened as two-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Michigan State to cover the spread

The Spartans have won six of their last seven games, with four covers, after knocking off second-seeded Virginia Sunday, 60-54. Michigan State, thanks to a hot Travis Trice, led by 11 points early and never trailed after that, winning outright as a four-point underdog. The Spartans only shot 43 percent from the field for the game, but they hit six of 12 three-point attempts and held the Cavaliers to just 30 percent shooting.

So MSU has now made the Sweet 16 four seasons in a row. The Spartans are also 9-8 both straight up and against the spread this season against teams that made the Big Dance.

Michigan State is shooting 47 percent from the floor this season and 39 percent from three-point range, while holding foes to less than 40 percent field-goal shooting. Finally, while it might not mean too much, the Spartans beat Oklahoma early last season on a neutral court in Brooklyn 87-76.

Why pick Oklahoma to cover the spread

The Sooners have won 12 of their last 15 games, after holding off upstart Dayton Sunday in Columbus, 72-66. OU led by a dozen about 12 minutes into the game, fell behind by nine about midway through the second half, then ended the game on a 32-17 run, pulling away for the victory and the cover as a four-point favorite. The Sooners hit on nine of 18 three-point attempts, made 19 of 24 free throws and out-rebounded the Flyers 35-23.

So Oklahoma is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009. The Sooners are also now 13-6 SU and 10-9 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

OU is only shooting 44 percent from the floor this season, but 74 percent from the free-throw line, which is good for a college team. At the other end of the court, the Sooners are holding foes to just under 39 percent field-goal shooting. If Oklahoma can just hit enough shots to avoid the big droughts, it could win this game straight up.

Smart betting pick

This one might turn into a grinder, to be decided by a bucket or a few free throws either way, but the oddsmakers probably have it pegged right. Michigan State, the lower seed, is the better team right now. The smart money here resides with the Spartans.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Michigan State Spartans: No. 127

Oklahoma Sooners: No. 51

March Madness betting trends

Michigan State has played nine of 12 under results in the Sweet 16 since 1996.

Oklahoma is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 since 1996.

Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS in its past six games overall as an underdog.

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