San Diego State Aztecs vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting, Analysis and Pick

Head coach Mike Krzyzewski and the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils will face a Steve Fisher-coached team in the NCAA men's basketball tournament for the first time since 1992 when they square off against the eighth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs in a South Region round-of-32 matchup Sunday.

The Duke head coach led his squad to his second of four national championships when the Blue Devils beat Fisher’s Michigan Wolverines for the title.

The Aztecs will be playing a No. 1 seed in the tournament for the second year in a row after falling short in their upset bid but covering the spread as 7.5-point underdogs in a 70-64 loss to the Arizona Wildcats last year.

Opening spread

The Blue Devils opened as 7.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick San Diego State to cover the spread?

San Diego State plays defense as well as any team in the country, and that was a huge factor in the team’s 74-64 victory against the ninth-seeded St. John’s Red Storm Friday. The Red Storm shot 46 percent from the field (27-of-59) but only 3-of-17 from three-point range (18 percent) and were out-rebounded 40-32 by the Aztecs.

San Diego State had a balanced scoring attack with four players in double figures, led by J.J. O’Brien with 18 points.

The Aztecs have covered in three straight games as underdogs of nine points or more and in seven of 10 because they are able to slow down the pace of the game and limit offensive possessions. That type of game plan could frustrate a team like Duke, which would rather play loose and run up and down the floor.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread?

The Blue Devils got off to a great start in the Big Dance by blowing out the 16th-seeded Robert Morris Colonials 85-56 and easily covering the spread as 22.5-point favorites Friday. They have now won 13 of their last 14 games and gone 9-5 against the spread during that stretch.

In the win over the Colonials, five players scored in double figures for Duke, led by senior guard Quinn Cook with a team-high 22 points. Freshman center Jahlil Okafor added 21 points in just 21 minutes on 9-of-11 shooting from the field, which means he should be more than fresh for this matchup with San Diego State.

Even though the Aztecs play four forwards in their lineup, none of them are capable of guarding Okafor inside, and that could present problems in terms of foul trouble as well.

Smart betting pick

When the Blue Devils are playing at their best, nobody outside of the unbeaten Kentucky Wildcats can beat them. They played an outstanding game both offensively and defensively against Robert Morris, as their talent was just too good.

When Fisher had better overall talent with the Wolverines 23 years ago, he still could not figure out a way to beat Duke. The Aztecs are able to make up for their limited talent with their defense most of the time, but that will prove to be too difficult here as the Blue Devils roll to another easy victory and cover.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

San Diego State Aztecs: No. 25

Duke Blue Devils: No. 10

March Madness betting trends

Duke is 8-0 vs. No. 8 seeds since 1996, going just 3-5 ATS in those games.

Duke is 13-1 SU in the round of 32 since 1997.

Duke is 5-2 ATS in its past seven games as chalk of 9.5 points or more.

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