Hampton Pirates vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats will look to remain perfect and continue chasing history when they meet the 16th-seeded Hampton Pirates on Thursday in a Midwest region matchup in Cleveland.

The Pirates upset the Manhattan Jaspers 74-64 on Tuesday as nine-point underdogs in the First Four and will now be bigger dogs than any team in the round of 64 when they face the undefeated Wildcats.

Opening spread

The Wildcats opened as 32-point favorites, but it was climbing higher Thursday. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Hampton to cover the spread

Hampton will be getting a ton of points in this one, so do not be shocked if this team hangs around for a while against Kentucky and ends up covering the spread for the sixth game in a row. Keep in mind, No. 16 seeds are 6-2 against the spread versus top seeds over the past two years, and the Wildcats will probably not be too concerned about covering such a giant number right out of the gate.

In the win over Manhattan, the Pirates played outstanding defense, which will be critical against a Kentucky team that will need to score a lot in order to have a shot at covering. If they can keep the Wildcats from scoring more than 80 points, they will improve their chances to cover the spread.

Many were critical of Hampton's admission into the NCAA tournament because of their losing record, but teams under .500 have earned a victory in the Big Dance three of the past four years now.

The Odds Shark computer says they will lose 85-60, which would cover the spread for Pirate bettors.

Why pick Kentucky to cover the spread

Kentucky’s depth and talent will simply be too much for the Pirates, who left it all on the court in their win over the Jaspers.

Hampton's leading scorer and rebounder Dwight Meikle has already been out due to a high ankle sprain, and the team lost Quinton Chievous to a sprained ankle late against Manhattan after he finished with a team-high 15 points and 13 rebounds. It will be hard for the Wildcats not to take advantage of those key injuries, even when they put in their reserves.

Regardless, Kentucky is 8-1-1 against the spread in its past 10 games playing against much better competition in the SEC and has reserves that are better than the Pirates' starters. Bettors should not expect the Wildcats to lack motivation, as how well they play to start the Big Dance could show everyone just how good they really are.

Smart betting pick

The key to this game for both sides will be pace. Hampton will want to slow things down in an effort to contain Kentucky offensively. On the other hand, the Wildcats will likely treat this game as a glorified scrimmage and play fast and furious so they can get a big lead and then rest as many key players as possible.

Make no mistake about it, the Pirates have no chance to win this game. But their injuries are a much bigger concern in terms of trying to cover the spread, even if it is a big number. Hampton only got 15 points combined from its bench against Manhattan, while every Kentucky player is capable of scoring more than that.

Look for the Wildcats to roll and cover easily, then move on to the next round and a more challenging opponent.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Hampton Pirates: No. 55

Kentucky Wildcats: No. 2

March Madness betting trends

Kentucky went 8-1-1 against the spread in its last 10 games of the season.

Kentucky is 8-1-2 against the spread in its past 11 NCAA tournament games.

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