Rays And Rangers Battle For Wild Card Supremacy

After perhaps one of the most disappointing road trips in recent memories, the Rays are 4-2 on their recent home stand (should be 5-1 but Joe Maddon thinks Russ Springer can pitch, but I'm just bitter).

This, like all series at this point in the year, is very important for both teams. With the Red Sox playing the Yankees both teams vie to take a comfortable lead in the Wild Card standings. 

The last series was a three game sweep of the Rays, as this showed the world who young pitchers Tommy Hunter and Derrick Holland were. The Rays will get a second shot at Hunter and will avoid facing Holland and Kevin Milwood, which could play in their favor. 

The Rays have the second best home record in the bigs, behind the Yankees with a 40-20 record, which is needed to counter-act their terrible road record of 25-35.

The Rays offense seems to be clicking as BJ Upton and Pat Burrell have figured out how to hit again, and the starting pitching has pitched well at home all year. 

Carl Crawford and Jason Bartlett are playing like MVP candidates and will need to continue to get on base so that Longoria, Zobrist, and Pena can continue to drive in runs. This will be the key for the Rays in the series because with two rookie pitchers, base runners causing distractions is critical.

Also, getting to the bullpen is critical as the Rangers are prone to melt downs, no need to remind them of that terrible first game against the Red Sox. Although they are sixth in the AL in bullpen ERA they have the least amount of innings pitched. Without being tested for long stretches of time who knows how they would react. 

Lets take a look at the pitching matchups:

Nippert vs. Kazmir

Nippert is 4-1 with a 3.52 ERA. He's been going back and forth between starting and the bullpen, and has pitched well against good competition. He has pitched against Boston twice and allowed only three runs in his 11.1 innings pitched. He has a great WHIP of 1.28. He has yet to face the Rays but his ERA on the road is vastly different than that at home (1.76 vs. 4.60). 

Kazmir is 7-7 with a 6.36 ERA. It seems as if he is turning a corner as four of his last five starts have been quality starts. He's faced Texas once this year getting the loss but yielding a 1.80 ERA. Against Texas last year he was 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA. The bad news for Kazmir is that the Rangers are 25-18 against left handed pitching. 

Prediction: Rays 7 Rangers 4

Hunter vs. Garza

Tommy Hunter might be the hottest pitcher in the major leagues. For the season he is 6-2 with a 2.34 ERA but in two of his last four starts he has gotten a little roughed up but not too bad. He baffled the Rays in his 5.1 innings of work and a .158 batting average against. However Upton and Crawford had two of the three hits against him and he cannot allow them to get on base.

Matt Garza has been inconsistent all year and has a 7-8 record with a 3.73 ERA. He is third in the league with 61 walks. Although he has struggled with command on the mound, he has allowed more than three runs only once in his last seven starts. That start he was sick and facing the Angels. However, his start against Texas was terrible allowing five runs in five innings. At the Trop his ERA is a cool 3.21.

Prediction: Rangers 3 Rays 2

Feldman vs. Price

Scott Feldman, another one of the Rangers young pitchers has a 12-4 record and a 4.06 ERA. He has not pitched well against good hitting teams giving up four or more runs to the Twins, Tigers, and Angels in his last 10 starts. However in his start against Tampa he pitched six innings allowing only one earned run. He also pitches better on the road with a 3.50 ERA and eight wins. He allowed only three hits to the Rays.

David Price has been beyond brilliant at home 2.82 ERA. His start against Texas was forgettable allowing six runs in 1.1 innings pitched. So something has to give here. Overall he is 6-5 with a 5.03 ERA. As his track record shows he should pitch well at home no matter the opponent and he has outdueled both Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia this year so you never know what you will get with Price.

Prediction: Rays 7 Rangers 3

This is a critical series for both teams as they vie for that wild card spot. The Rays play all the teams they need to play to get that wild card spot.

The Rangers now, the Red Sox six more times and the Yankees eight more times. If the Rays can do some damage and take advantage whenever the Red Sox or Rangers play tough competition they will find themselves right back in the playoffs.

As bad as they have played they are still only three games off the mark.