LSU Tigers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

In one of the most even round-of-64 games from a betting perspective, the eighth-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack meet the ninth-seeded LSU Tigers in an East Region matchup in Pittsburgh Thursday.

Both teams seem capable of pulling off an upset in the next round, most likely against the top-seeded Villanova Wildcats. But until then, the slightly favored Wolfpack will try to knock out a Tigers team that has gone 7-1 against the spread as an underdog this season.

Opening spread

The Wolfpack opened as 1.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick LSU to cover the spread

LSU played the top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats better than arguably any other team in the country this season, falling 71-69 but covering the spread as a 10.5-point home underdog back on February 10. Since then, the Tigers have gone 5-3 both straight-up and against the spread, including an 81-78 road victory against the Arkansas Razorbacks as 7.5-point underdogs.

While their ATS record as dogs this year is quite impressive, they will likely need to win this game in order to cover since the spread is so low.

Of course, that is definitely possible considering how well LSU has played on the road lately, winning three of four SU and ATS not counting the team's disappointing 73-70 loss to the Auburn Tigers as 9.5-point favorites on a neutral court in the SEC tournament.

And the computer is picking the upset here, a 73-70 verdict in favor of the Tigers.

Why pick North Carolina State to cover the spread

NC State played well down the stretch before losing to the Duke Blue Devils 77-53 as 8.5-point underdogs in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament.

The Wolfpack had won six of seven SU and ATS prior to that setback, highlighted by a 58-46 victory against the North Carolina Tar Heels as nine-point underdogs on February 24.

The Wolfpack have lost consecutive games only twice this season, and each of those brief skids included a tough opponent—the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first losing streak, and the Virginia Cavaliers during the second.

Earlier in the year, NC State upset the Blue Devils 87-75 as a nine-point home underdog, backing up just how good this team can be when playing to its potential. The ACC toughened up the Wolfpack throughout the season, and that should benefit them here against an opponent from the weaker SEC.

Smart betting pick

This is a great matchup between teams from two power conferences, and picking the winner will generally come down to whether you think the ACC or SEC is better. Kentucky was really the only elite team in the SEC this year, but a lot of other schools in the conference still managed to put together winning records within the league to help build their resumes for the Big Dance.

Meanwhile, the ACC is one of the best conferences on an annual basis, and that may be exactly why NC State is a small favorite here. Regardless, LSU is the better team with more wins and should continue its underdog run with another SU victory to move on to the next round.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power rankings)

LSU Tigers: No. 106

NC State Wolfpack: No. 63

March Madness betting trends

LSU went 7-3 ATS in its final 10 games of the season.

LSU went 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

NC State went 7-2 ATS in its final nine games of the season.

All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark—download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.