Harvard Crimson vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

North Carolina, in part because it's North Carolina, is just 4-8 against the spread in its last 12 NCAA tournament games. The Tar Heels should be double-digit favorites when they play Goliath to Harvard's David in the West's No. 4 vs. No. 13 game Thursday night in Jacksonville.

If the Odds Shark computer is right, UNC will win, but Harvard will cover in a 72-64 final.

Opening spread
The Tar Heels opened as nine-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Harvard to cover the spread

The Crimson enter this NCAA tournament as the regular-season champions of the Ivy League after winning a one-game playoff at Yale last Saturday 53-51. Harvard stumbled a bit down the stretch, losing games as a favorite against Cornell and Yale, but won its regular-season finale to force the playoff, then beat the Bulldogs in Philly on a bucket with seven seconds to go.

Coach Tommy Amaker's Crimson are at the Big Dance for the fourth straight season, the first Ivy entry to accomplish that feat since the great Pete Carril's Princeton team of 25 years ago.

Last March Harvard upset Cincinnati in its NCAA tournament opener, then gave Michigan State a tough game and covered. Two years ago the Crimson upset New Mexico before falling to Arizona. So Harvard is 3-1 against the spread in its last four games at the Big Dance.

Why pick North Carolina to cover the spread

The Heels are in the tournament as an at-large after finishing in fifth place in the ACC this season then advancing to the finals of the conference tournament, where they lost to Notre Dame.

Carolina comes in as a dangerous bunch, capable of beating almost anybody. The Heels had Duke beat at Cameron a month ago, before letting that one slip away.

On the season the Heels own wins and covers over tournament contestants Davidson, UCLA, Ohio State, UAB, Louisville and Virginia, as they played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They should have added the Blue Devils to that list too, but they blew a 10-point lead in the last four minutes.

Smart betting pick

North Carolina split two games this season with ACC regular-season champion Virginia. Harvard lost to the Cavaliers back in December by 49 points. This line of thinking isn't an exact science, but it does give an idea of the disparity in the talent levels between the two teams. So the smart betting choice here probably resides with the Tar Heels, minus the points.

Power rankings

Harvard Crimson: No. 45

North Carolina Tar Heels: No. 26 (per Odds Shark power ranks)

March Madness betting trends

Harvard went 1-5 against the spread in its final six games of the season.

Harvard went 3-10 straight up in its past 13 games as an underdog.

UNC went 8-2-1 against the spread in its past 11 games as a double-digit favorite.

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