Are the Buccaneers Better off with Winston or Mariota?

The debate has been raging since before the 2014 season even came to a close.

As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers careened into a 2-14 season and secured the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, it became clear to most that a franchise quarterback would be their biggest need. And though this year’s draft class has no can’t-miss, Andrew Luck-type of signal-caller, two prospects sat head-and-shoulders above the rest of the pack as the most likely targets.

Team Winston.

Team Mariota.

At times, it feels like this is the new Florida-or-Florida-State among football fans in the central part of the state. Is it the charismatic Winston who is destined to bring playoff glory back to Raymond James Stadium? Or is the more subdued Mariota Tampa Bay’s best chance at bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to One Buc Place?

Everyone has an opinion, that’s for sure.

Face of the Franchise

At the quarterback position especially, NFL teams can ill afford to have a player who will embarrass the team with their off-field behavior. In this category, Mariota holds the edge as the best bet for Tampa Bay, given Winston’s string of well-documented issues.

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Winston’s biggest red flag throughout the entire process has been his involvement in multiple off-field incidents that are concerning at best, and deeply troubling at worst. The allegations of sexual abuse are incredibly serious, and a lack of maturity has led to other questionable decisions.

That said, Winston was never formally charged with the sexual assault, and if his comments at the combine are any indication, Bucs head coach Lovie Smith doesn’t think that or any other situation Winston has put himself in will keep them from drafting him, per Roy Cummings of The Tampa Tribune:

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Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. The justice system said, ‘No, there’s nothing there to warrant going forward.’ So, we can’t hold that against him. So, now you start looking at, ‘What else has he done?’ The crab legs. That’s bad. You have to pay for food. My Publix doesn’t let me do that. So, that’s serious when you do something like that. But what else had he done? A BB-gun fight? Did you have a BB-gun when you were a kid growing up? I did. What did you do with yours? I had some BB-gun fights, me and my brother. And you know what we figured out? We found out you can get hit in the eye. So, I said, ‘I can’t believe we did that. Dumb. Shouldn’t have done it.’ So I’m not going to give him the death sentence for that. Then there’s the student union. We’ve all been to college, right? Done some stupid things? It’s not a crime, though. I’m not going to give him the death sentence on that. I mean, they’re bad decisions and he’s been drug across the mud for them. They’re following him. And that’s what should happen, because bad decisions, they’re going to stay with you the rest of your life. And he needs to stand up now and know that we can’t have our guys doing that. And I assume he’s going to say that he was dumb and stupid to have done that. But to write somebody off based on that, it’s got to be a little more than that do that.

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Is it possible the Bucs could regret selecting Winston, should his penchant for negative off-field attention rear its head at any time in the future? Of course. But at this point, it appears that won’t be a deterrent for the team when it comes to making the decision on the No. 1 overall pick.

Winston has already had a private visit at Bucs headquarters, and it’s clear the team will be doing their due diligence before handing him the keys to the franchise. Winston is saying and doing all of the right things, but it’s still a risk for the Bucs to bank on him not having any of these same issues at the next level.

Is that risk worth taking? It appears the answer is yes for the Bucs, but it’s easy to wonder whether the team should go with the prospect who doesn’t have that kind of baggage.

Behind Door No. 2?

After his Ducks dismantled Winston’s Seminoles in the Rose Bowl, Mariota seemed like the clear-cut favorite to be the top pick. He is smooth, athletic and effective through the air and on the ground, while Winston struggled.

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But it didn’t take long for that age-old concern to rise to the top: Can an Oregon quarterback ever succeed in the NFL?

It’s an easy comparison to make, but Mariota is no Akili Smith. Though he’s able to win with his feet, he’s a far more capable passer from the pocket than many seem to realize. But will he be as effective outside of the Ducks’ spread offense? His traits are transferrable, but the mental part of running a more pro-style attack is easily his biggest drawback.

Greg Cosell of NFL Films explains, via Peter King of SI.com:

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What Mariota is used to is making precise throws on time to schemed receivers. Defined reads, to open receivers. I love the Oregon offense. There’s an open receiver so often. And he executes the concepts of that offense exceedingly well. But what you don’t see is a lot of throws from a muddied pocket; what I mean is throwing in the middle of a lot of traffic. You don’t see a lot of anticipation throws. You don’t see a lot of tight window throws, simply because he doesn’t have to make them. Having said all that, there is an awful lot about him to like. I just have some questions about his game.

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King does a great job of debunking some of the myths surrounding Mariota's ability to succeed at the next level, but the concern remains: Will he be able to translate his college success to the pro level, unlike his predecessors?

The Coordinator Question

As soon as Dirk Koetter was hired as the Bucs’ new offensive coordinator, fans and analysts alike were scrambling to make any possible connection between his scheme and either of the top college quarterbacks.

And as is the case with many things, there were enough connections to please either side of the narrative. Those in the Winston camp pointed to Koetter’s use of a more pro-style offense, while those who favored Mariota brought up his time spent on the coaching staff at Arizona State, where he coached with current Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

But neither argument is terribly substantial. Koetter’s system is obviously more “pro-style,” but that’s because he’s been a pro coordinator building something that works at the pro level. He’s close with Helfrich; that doesn’t automatically make Mariota the best fit for him now.

Many have tried to connect the circumstantial dots to lead them to the best fit for the Bucs, but either should have success in Koetter’s offense.

The Bottom Line

So, where does that leave the Bucs? Who really is their best option?

For me, it comes down to where they are as a franchise. By most accounts, Winston is more prepared to be successful early in his career, while Mariota is expected to require more time to develop. But when it comes to the higher ceiling, Mariota gets the nod, should he be given the chance to develop.

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Mariota might end up being the better player overall if he ends up in the right place, but Winston is more prepared to start and win now and regardless of scheme. This Bucs regime might not have enough time to wait around for Mariota to develop, especially after going 2-14 in their first season. Mariota might end up being great, but will it be under Smith and general manager Jason Licht, or for the next decision-makers after they’re run out of town by impatience?

Both have their issues on the field—Winston’s sloppy mechanics definitely need work—and only Winston has any off-field concerns to avoid repeating at the next level. But if the Bucs can surround him with the right people to keep him out of trouble, he’s their best chance to be successful immediately.

Luke Easterling is a Featured Columnist covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NFL draft for Bleacher Report. He is also a Senior NFL Draft Analyst for Draft Breakdown. Follow him on Twitter @LukeEasterling.