Arron Afflalo Trade Is Missing Piece to Oklahoma City Thunder Playoff Push
As the Feb. 19 NBA trade deadline nears, the Oklahoma City Thunder should focus their attention on acquiring Denver Nuggets shooting guard Arron Afflalo.
The Thunder finished the first half strong, winning five of their last six, and closed the gap to just a half game behind the Phoenix Suns for the eighth seed.
A deal to bolster the second unit and add some outside shooting is just what OKC needs to strand the Suns in the desert.
As for the Nuggets, it would appear they'll be one of the biggest sellers at the deadline. Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote that—while names like Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried aren't being shopped—rookie center Jusuf Nurkic "is the only true untouchable on the roster."
Afflalo has generated interest from numerous teams. Along with the Thunder, the Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento Kings have inquired about the 29-year-old, per ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne.
Oklahoma City has been aggressive in its attempts to improve the team and make a playoff push. In January, the organization pried Dion Waiters away from the Cleveland Cavaliers and was reportedly close to a deal for Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
A trade for Affalo, while costly, would be the final piece to the Thunder's postseason puzzle.
The Cost
According to Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post, the Nuggets want a first-round pick in exchange for Afflalo. After receiving two first-rounders from the Cavs for center Timofey Mozgov, it's only right that Denver tries its luck again with a more established player.
Denver's asking price is problematic for the Thunder for two reasons. First, OKC already offered a protected first-round pick in the Waiters trade. The team would have to offer a future pick to make a deal work, while other teams can offer more immediate help.
Then there's the issue of Afflalo's contract.
He has a player option for next season worth $7.75 million, per HoopsHype.com, which means the Thunder would be giving up a draft pick (among other things) for a player who could bolt after only a few months. That isn't the kind of gamble general manager Sam Presti normally takes.
Also, with the Waiters deal pushing OKC into the luxury tax, the team will have to find a way to send enough salary back to make the deal work financially.
Afflalo is owed $7.5 million this season; Reggie Jackson, the team's best trade chip, makes only $2.3 million. Even with adding guys like Jeremy Lamb ($2.2 million) and Perry Jones ($1.1 million), we're still talking about finding a way to make the deal work.
The team could dangle Kendrick Perkins' expiring contract ($9.1 million), but that would leave the Thunder with a huge void at the center position. The most likely scenario would be to find a third team that would allow OKC to unload some contracts and still get Afflalo—as well as possibly another asset.
Even with all of the obstacles, the deal is still worth pursing.
The Thunder need to win now, and Afflalo is one of the better targets available in a shallow trade market. Bigger names such as Rajon Rondo (Dallas Mavericks), Josh Smith (Houston Rockets) and Jeff Green (Memphis Grizzlies) have already strengthened the conference by moving west.
Meanwhile, Jackson and Lamb don't seem to have much of a future in Oklahoma City, and the team has enough young talent in development to make giving up a future first-round pick worthwhile.
If OKC can convince Afflalo to stick around for next season, the reward will outweigh the risk.
Why Afflalo Is Worth The Risk
The Thunder have three areas that need improvement.
They could use a big man who can score down low. Center Steven Adams is sidelined with a broken hand, and power forward Serge Ibaka has focused more on shooting threes than posting up. Rookie Mitch McGary has put together some nice performances recently, but he's too green to be relied upon in the playoffs.
OKC could also use another scoring option within the second unit. Waiters, while contributing 10.9 points in 26.9 minutes since coming over from Cleveland, has struggled with his shot.
He's converting 38.3 percent from the field and 26.8 percent from three since joining the Thunder, per Basketball-Reference.com. Even if the Syracuse guard finds a rhythm, he'll need someone who can take defensive pressure off of him.
According to HoopsStats.com, the Thunder rank 15th in the NBA in bench scoring. The unit averages 33.5 points per game and collectively shoots 41.8 percent from the field (including a paltry 30.8 percent from downtown). If the team finds a new home for Jackson (12.8 points per game), that's another chunk of reserve scoring that needs to be replaced.
The club is also struggling from behind the arc. OKC is 25th in three-point shooting, with a conversion rate of just 32.5 percent. Only three players in the Thunder's regular rotation are shooting better than 30 percent from deep: Durant (40.5 percent), Ibaka (38.9 percent) and Anthony Morrow (37.1 percent).
The addition of Afflalo would fill two of those three needs. He's averaging 14.5 points in 33 minutes per contest. His 42.8 percent shooting from the field is his worst mark since his rookie year, but it is still better than what OKC is getting from Waiters. He's also a career 38.4 percent three-point shooter.
Afflalo's ability to space the floor, as well as play a respectable (enough) brand of defense, might make him a better fit playing alongside the starters than any other option OKC currently boasts.
Defensively, he's the middle ground between a walking turnstile and a perimeter stopper. According to NBA.com, opponents are shooting 42.4 percent with Afflalo defending, compared to 43.9 percent normally. His defensive rating (112) is troubling, but the Nuggets are also one of the worst defensive teams in the league, according to ESPN's Hollinger stats.
More importantly, bringing Afflalo to Oklahoma City keeps him from landing on another contender. Two of his potential suitors (Clippers, Trail Blazers) are teams the Thunder might have to face in the playoffs. This would be an opportunity for the Thunder to get better while taking away a weapon from their competitors in the process.
On top of that, the intense race in the West has other top teams in the conference looking to keep up, as Jon Hamm of The Oklahoman points out.
"Teams in the West have made numerous moves so far this season because they had to. The Warriors look potent but lack any proven playoff experience. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are hardened like iron, but they've yet to eliminate a healthy Thunder team in the playoffs. Dallas, Houston and Phoenix are desperately trying to play catch-up.
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The Thunder, while still on the outside looking in of the playoffs, have the potential to be a dangerous team so long as they make the final field. Other teams would be wise to do what they can to ensure OKC's path is as difficult as possible.
Durant and Co. can't afford to go into the second half of the season with any potential holes unfilled.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the talent to make the playoffs.
However, just making the postseason isn't good enough. With a reigning MVP in Kevin Durant and a dark-horse MVP candidate in Russell Westbrook, the team needs to do whatever it takes to win now.
That focus starts with a trade for Arron Afflalo. He's the kind of veteran role player who can tip the scales in the Thunder's favor.
His presence on the second unit alongside Dion Waiters would give Oklahoma City extraordinary depth, or his running with the starters would make a talented unit even more devastating.
The price tag is high and the risk is evident, but more is lost by indecision than a bad decision.
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